Dave Feit's Historical 12-Team College Football Playoffs
For the majority of college football's 150+ year history, there were no playoffs. If we were lucky, the national champion was determined in a bowl game between the #1 and #2 teams. But in most years, the "mythical national champion" was the team who got the most votes in a poll - often a poll that was conducted before the bowl games.
As a result, dozens of teams with championship potential never got the chance to earn it on the field. After various attempts to match top teams (remember the Bowl Coalition, Bowl Alliance, and BCS?) the College Football Playoff debuted in 2014. It placed the top four teams into a winner-take-all bracket.
After a decade as a four-team playoff, the CFP expanded to 12 teams in 2024.
But what about all those teams from the past who never got an opportunity? And more importantly to my Husker fandom: How many times would Nebraska have made the playoffs, and what would their path have been to a championship?
Using the framework and rules of the new 12-team playoff, I went back and found all of the times Nebraska would have made the playoffs, what seed they would have been, and who they would have played.
Since the College Football Playoff Selection Committee did not exist prior to 2014, I'm using the AP poll for rankings. The AP poll has been in existence since 1936, which is where we'll start.
Methodology
I went through the HuskerMax season pages for every year starting in 1936 (the first year of the AP poll). I looked for seasons where Nebraska won its conference or was in the top 12 of the final regular season rankings - both ways that a team can make the 12-team playoff today.
When I found a match, I followed the 2024 playoff selection process: The five highest-ranked conference champions receive automatic bids - regardless of if they're a "Power 4" or "Group of 5". The top four seeds go to the four highest ranked conference champs. Independent teams cannot be one of the top four seeds.
For the remaining seeds, I used the ranking of the final regular season AP poll (i.e., after the last game, but before the bowls) in lieu of the CFP Committee's poll. The brackets were laid out just as they will be this year: the 12 seed plays at the 5 seed, the 11 visits the 6, 10 goes to 7's campus, and the 8 seed hosts the 9. The winners of these games advance to play the 1-4 seeds, who all received a first-round bye.
Notes & Caveats
- One of the biggest changes to college football has been the number of independent teams. In 1936 - the first year of this exercise - there were 80 independent college football teams, including 45% of the final AP poll. By 1979, there were still over 30 independent teams. The 2024 CFP seeding process (which I'm using here) gives priority to teams in conferences: an independent team cannot be seeded higher than 5. As a result, there are a couple of years when a team ranked outside the Top 10 received a first round bye because they were the fourth highest rated conference champ.
- The current selection structure (auto bids to the five highest ranked conference champions) ensures that a team from a non-power, "Group of 5" conference will be included. But since most of the years in this exercise are prior to the concept of a "BCS", "Power 5", or "Power 4" conference, no attempt was made to include teams outside of what we now consider the P4. Doing so would mean excluding deserving teams from now defunct conferences like the Big 8, Southwest, and Pac 8/10.
- In seasons where there were two (or more) teams tied for the best record in a conference, I used head-to-head, then the higher-ranked team as tiebreakers to determine who would get the automatic berth and potential first round bye.
- Attempts were made to exclude teams that were ineligible for postseason due to NCAA probation, such as Oklahoma in the early 1970s and Auburn in 1993.
1935
We're going to start in 1936, the first year of the AP poll. But Husker history buffs will note that Nebraska won 21 conference championships before the AP poll was born. One of those championships was the 1935 Big Six Conference title, which might have made them eligible for our hypothetical playoff in 1935.
Alas, the Huskers (6-2-1 and #21 in the UPI poll) were not one of the five highest-ranked conference champions and would not have made it.
I bring up 1935 to point out that if we took this hypothetical exercise all the way back to the dawn of college football, the Huskers would have many more playoff appearances than what we'll cover in this series.
1936
Nebraska: 7-2-0, First place in the Big Six
Conference champion automatic qualifiers (and their AP ranking at the end of the regular season)
- #2 LSU (Southeastern Conference)
- #5 Washington (Pacific Coast)
- #7 Northwestern (Big Ten)
- #9 Nebraska (Big Six)
- #11 Duke (Southern Conference)
At-large teams (and their AP ranking at the end of the regular season)
- #1 Minnesota
- #3 Pittsburgh
- #4 Alabama
- #6 Santa Clara
- #8 Notre Dame
- #10 Penn
- #12 Yale
First two out
- #13 Dartmouth
- #14 Duquesne
Minnesota was the #1 team in the AP poll, but Northwestern won the Big Ten (the Wildcats beat the Gophers 6-0). This means Minnesota - the eventual national champion - ends up as the 5 seed, hosting 12 seed Yale. The winner would play Nebraska.
The Huskers snuck into the 4 seed due to Pittsburgh, Santa Clara, and Notre Dame all being independent.
Team that won the National Championship: Minnesota
1937
Nebraska: 6-1-2, First place in the Big Six
Automatic qualifiers
- #2 California (Pacific Coast)
- #4 Alabama (SEC)
- #5 Minnesota (Big 10)
- #11 Nebraska (Big Six)
- #17 Colorado (Rocky Mountain Conference)
At-large teams
- #1 Pittsburgh
- #3 Fordham
- #6 Villanova
- #7 Dartmouth
- #8 LSU
- #9 Notre Dame
- #10 Santa Clara
First two out
- #12 Yale
- #13 Ohio State
The large number of independent teams in the 1930s means that the Committee has to go all the way to #17 Colorado for the fifth highest ranked conference champ. The Buffaloes come in as the 12 seed, leaving AP #12 Yale on the wrong side of the bubble.
The Buffs would travel to 5 seed Pittsburgh (#1 in the AP). The winner would play 4 seed Nebraska.
Team that won the National Championship: Pittsburgh
1940
Nebraska: 8-1-0 (regular season), first place in the Big Six
Automatic qualifiers
- #1 Minnesota (Big Ten)
- #2 Stanford (Pacific Coast)
- #4 Tennessee (SEC)
- #6 Texas A&M (Southwest Conference)
- #7 Nebraska (Big Six)
At-large teams
- #3 Michigan
- #5 Boston College
- #8 Northwestern
- #9 Mississippi State
- #10 Washington
- #11 Santa Clara
- #12 Fordham
First two out
- #13 Georgetown
- #14 Penn
Nebraska opened the 1940 season with a 13-7 loss at Minnesota. The game cost the Huskers a first-round bye. NU ends up as the 7 seed, hosting 10 seed Washington. Stanford - the 2 seed - awaits the winner in the Rose Bowl. Nebraska lost to Stanford 21-13 in the Rose Bowl on January 1, 1941, their first-ever bowl game.
* * *
After the 1940 season, World War II hit the Nebraska program hard. The Huskers went 15-29 between 1941 and 1945, with just two winning seasons between 1941 and 1961.
The Huskers did appear in one bowl game during this stretch: the 1955 Orange Bowl. However, that team (6-4-0) finished a distant second to Oklahoma in the Big Seven conference. The Huskers were sent to Miami because the conference had a "no-repeat" rule that prevented OU from going two years in a row. The Huskers were blown out 34-7 by #14 Duke, who would not have made the hypothetical playoff in 1954.
But in 1962, a new head coach arrived from Wyoming. He would launch a new era of Nebraska football.
Next time, we'll look the 12-team playoff appearances from the Devaney era.
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