Dave Feit: Who Shall Lead Us?

Taking stock of Nebraska football’s coaching search

Dylan Widger-USA TODAY Sports

Normally, we'd use this space to go over the game that just happened. What went right for Nebraska, what went wrong, who shone brightest, and who can do better.

But let's be honest: I don't want to write about the Michigan game. You probably don't want to read about it. Nebraska lost to Michigan 34-3 in a game that was over when the Wolverines scored their first touchdown. We should send Jim Harbaugh a thank you note for not scoring 50 points. It was a frustrating, depressing, sobering look at where the program is at as we suffer through the final chapters of the Scott Frost era.

The Nebraska program is in worse shape today than any point in the last 60 years. Top to bottom, Nebraska is worse today than they were at the end of the Mike Riley era. I do not believe this is a debatable point.*

*From the start of the 2018 through Saturday's games, Nebraska is 61st out of the 65 Power 5 teams in terms of wins, with 18. The only teams to win fewer games in the last five (almost) full seasons are Rutgers (15), Vanderbilt (15), Arizona (14) and Kansas (14).

This is why Frost was fired, and why this next hire is critical. So instead of recapping the game, let's talk about Nebraska's next head coach. Who it might be, who it is not, and what we can learn from the hire and the process. I'll tell you up front that I have no sources.* But I think there is a lot of information out there if we choose to see it.

*My current "sources" are people who have their own sources (but my DMs are open if you want to tell me who your brother's neighbor's real estate agent is talking to). Bottom line: Until the press conference occurs, take all rumors with a grain of salt.

I’m going to use my normal postgame format, but tweak it for the coaching search.

Things I believe

Mickey Joseph will not be Nebraska's full-time head coach. I like Mickey. You like Mickey. I believe that in the right situation, Mickey Joseph can be a successful head coach. But Nebraska - especially now - is not that situation.

One of my biggest takeaways from Mickey's tenure is the power of honest, direct communication. So, let's be blunt: Given NU's quarterback health and offensive struggles, the Huskers are not likely to win either of their final two games. That would make Mickey 2-7 as the interim head coach, riding a six-game losing streak. While I'm on record that much of Nebraska's failures are due to things out of Mickey Joseph's control, it would be impossible for athletic director Trev Alberts to sell/spin Mickey as a good hire at that point.

There was a time when fans could have gotten on board with Mickey as the full-time head coach, but that window has closed. If Mickey Joseph were hired today, my assumption would be that Trev Alberts had been turned down by every other candidate on his list. I don't think I'm alone in this opinion. Right or wrong, the perception that Alberts failed would cast a shadow over Joseph's (and Alberts') tenure at NU.

Please do not take this as a shot at Mickey. As I've said previously, he's in an impossible situation with a patchwork roster and staff. I respect the hell out of his passion, energy and leadership. I believe he will have a wide variety of job options for 2023: assistant/ace recruiter under the new coach, head coach at a smaller school (seriously, can you imagine him running a FCS team in Louisiana?), or as an assistant anywhere he'd choose to go.

Personally, I'm rooting for him to stay at Nebraska. Back in September, I said Mickey was going to leave Nebraska better than he found it. That is 100% accurate regardless of his final record is as interim head coach.

With no obvious, home-run hire, there will be factions of disappointed fans. Remember the 2017 coaching search? Our grandkids will never believe how much of a sure-thing, slam dunk hire Frost was in 2017. He checked so many boxes, that Bill Moos' list of candidates was a single name.

But this isn't 2017. This time, there are no likely candidates with pristine résumés. Throw a name out on Twitter or a message board and folks will give you a long list of reasons why that guy won't work out.

With no clear-cut, home-run hire, we need to accept two truths:

1. Every single candidate has flaws. Matt Campbell may have peaked in Ames. Lane Kiffin was run out of Tennessee and USC. Matt Rhule was just fired at Carolina.
2. Be prepared for vocal critics of the new coach. Regardless of who Trev picks - even Mickey Joseph - there WILL be critics who point out every single flaw and hole in his résumé. It won't be as bad as when Mike Riley was hired, but there will be vocal skeptics.

It is foolish to view this coach search as a single (or double) elimination tournament. As this season-long search has dragged on, I've been laughing at the people who think that whenever (Coaching Candidate)'s team loses, he is automatically eliminated from consideration.

Iowa State loses? Matt Campbell is out. Baylor loses? Dave Aranda is out? Matt Rhule got fired? Oh, he's definitely out. LOL.

That's not how a coaching search works. If anything, having a coach like Aranda lose a few games works to Nebraska's advantage. He's less likely to stick around, or get a ridiculous contract extension from his current A.D. Maybe there is an advantage to a having a head coach who can get up and running before the December signing period.

Stop treating this coaching search like the NCAA basketball tournament. While the mental image is funny, I guarantee Trev Alberts does not have a 32-coach bracket in his office that he updates after the weekend's wins and losses.

Things I don’t know

What are Trev Alberts' vision and expectations for the Nebraska program? To me, this is the most important question in the entire search. While I'm obviously dying to know who the next coach will be, I'm just as curious to find out the answer to this question.

If/when Trev is asked this question, I fully expect him to say "win championships."

But is that a) honest, and b) realistic?

Over the last five years, Nebraska has become one of the worst teams in the Power 5. Only Rutgers, Vanderbilt, Arizona and Kansas have won fewer games than NU. When the Big Ten adds USC and UCLA after next year and (presumably) eliminates divisions, Nebraska's road to a championship becomes harder. Right now, to play for a title NU just needs to be the best of a mediocre division. In 2024, the Huskers would need to beat out 14 other teams.

Truly being a championship team means Nebraska's next head coach (and staff) are top 10 in the nation in recruiting every year. They retain talent, develop it better than most, and when they patch holes from the portal, they don't miss. Championship-caliber teams are elite in (at least) two of the three phases of the game. They are disciplined, well-coached, and make in-game adjustments.

Back in August, I laid out my long-term expectations for the program. Of the various coaching candidates, I've seen named, there probably are 5-10 that could have that level of success at NU. Make no mistake, this is a full-on rebuild from the ground up. Not every coach is going to be up to the challenge. If the bar is closer to my short-term, season specific expectation (6 wins and bowl game), then the pool of viable candidates becomes much larger.

But if Trev is truly serious about making Nebraska a championship contender again? He's going to need to pull a rabbit out of his hat.

There's an old cliché about new coaches "winning the press conference." In this case, the onus will be on Trev Alberts. Without a clear, home-run candidate, fans will need to understand Trev's logic, his vision for the program, and how (Coach) fits into that plan. I suspect Trev will have good a strong, well-prepared response. If he wants to set a more realistic expectation for the fan base, he'll never have a better opportunity.

Will money be an issue? In theory, Nebraska could make its next head coach one of the highest paid in the nation. Between the money from the Big Ten Conference, boosters, and other revenue sources, Trev Alberts could make an offer that would be impossible for most coaches to refuse.

But will he?

The rumor mill* says Trev doesn't want to pay the exorbitant salaries of the top coaches in the country. More specifically, he is said to be against handing out the mega buyouts that will keep Jimbo Fisher, Mel Tucker and others employed for years to come.

*Yes, this is the same rumor mill that at various points in this search has had everybody from Urban Meyer to Deion Sanders ready to sign a contract. Again, use skepticism as needed.

If true, I get the concern. Trev has gained a reputation as somebody who is fiscally conservative. Some might call that "tight" or "cheap," but Nebraska has paid out tens of millions of dollars in buyouts to fired coaches over the last decade. There's an easy argument to be made that large buyouts are the primary reason Frost and Fred Hoiberg both returned for 2022.

My hunch is that when Trev finds his guy, that coach will receive a competitive salary, but with a smaller buyout than what Frost is currently collecting. My hope is that Alberts chooses to splurge on the salary pool for assistant coaches, as they'll have a lot to do with the future coach's success or failure.

How is the Nebraska job perceived by Trev's top candidates? This is another question that will likely never be answered.

Whenever Trev Alberts introduces Nebraska's next head coach, the narrative will be that (Coach) is the only person Trev pursued, the only one to get an interview, yada, yada, yada. Trev is pretty forthcoming, but he's not going to say that he was turned down by Coaches A, B, and C because of X, Y, and Z.

But I'd love to know how Trev's top targets felt about the Nebraska job. We can recite the numerous pros of the NU job (unmatched fan support, amazing facilities, football is king, blue-blood status, sleeping giant potential, to name a few).

But what do the coaches see? Do they see a fan base/administration that has fired two nine-win coaches this century? Over 20 years of dysfunction and drama? The shadow and influence of a legendary coach that still extends over the program? With the playoffs expanding, is it easier or harder to win a championship in a 16-team mega conference? How does a division-less conference change things? With divisions, NU is a good job. You beat six teams that can't match NU's talent, and get a chance to play for a title. Without divisions, you're fighting to be in the top four of the league.

Nebraska's monetary resources might be greener, but the proverbial grass may not be.

5 reasons I’m not giving you a “hot board” of candidates

1. I don't want to debate candidates. As we talked about above, it's easy to poke holes in every candidate's résumé. Over two months into the search, I've lost what little appetite I had for it.
2. I think the phrase "hot board" is dumb. "Hot Board" sounds like something that be in my sister's old "Teen Beat" magazines.
3. You don't really care who I have on there. Unless I had some crazy, out-of-left-field name, you'd never remember if I had Lance Leipold as my first, second, or third choice. (Spoiler: most of us felt the same way about your hot list).
4. I never made a list. Honest. I never did. There are guys I'd prefer over others, but unless Trev asked for my input (he didn't, btw), I never felt it was worth the effort to put together a list of candidates.
5. I believe in the Golden Rule. Since I started writing this piece, I've been hearing a name mentioned (a lot), so it wouldn't be honest for me put him at the top of a made-up list just to say "I called it!"

5 fan candidates who are never, ever coaching here

1. Urban Meyer. He's not coming here. If you think he should be, I question your judgment.
2. Deion Sanders. Is Coach Prime ready for a Power 5 team? Is Nebraska ready for Coach Prime? One of those is a definite "no."
3. Lane Kiffin. He'd be a lot of fun, but I don't see Nebraska paying enough to grab a coach from an SEC team in the top 15.
4. Bret Bielema. Given what he's done at Wisconsin and Illinois, he clearly knows what he's doing. But unless the terms of his contract included removal of his Hawkeye tattoo, I couldn't sleep at night.
5. Jeff Monken. Remember in 2014 when Husker fans had to Google to find out who Mike Riley was? In 2022, it would be "Alexa, who the heck is Jeff Monken?"

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