Five Questions for 2021

Dave Feit ponders win totals and more as Nebraska football starts a new season

© Kirthmon F. Dozier, Detroit Free Press

Every Nebraska football season bring a slew of things we don't know - and can't wait to find out. Here are five questions on my mind as the season starts.

Which players will have breakout seasons?

My list is a mix of guys who have not seen a lot of playing time, and vets who are ready to take their game up a level.

• Cam Jurgens. He may never live up to the Rimington comp Scott Frost made, but all conference is not out of the question. He's ready to lead an offensive line that is could be the breakout unit.
• Garrett Nelson. High-motor guy who will benefit from being stronger, wiser, and playing next to some talented defensive linemen.
• Zavier Betts. With Omar Manning, Samori Toure, and other receiving prospects, there are lots of options. I think Betts has what you want to be a difference maker.
• Isaac Gifford. He's going to make a special teams play that will have you saying "Who is that?!?"
• Braxton Clark. Whoever lines up opposite of Cam Taylor Britt is going to be tested. I like Clark's size, speed, and big play potential.

How many wins will Nebraska get this year?

With a tough schedule, a lot of unproven depth, and an ongoing focus on avoiding critical mistakes, this is impossible to predict. And make no mistake - we won't know the answer when the calendar flips from August to September.

I can picture a doomsday scenario where Nebraska wins three or four (or fewer) games. Those usually start with "Adrian Martinez gets hurt" and snowball from there. On the flip side, if everything - and I mean everything* - goes according to plan, 10 wins is a possibility.

*We're talking few injuries, newcomers flashing all over the field, returning guys taking the next step, multiple all-conference caliber players, few mistakes, catching opponents at the right time, and pretty much the opposite of every piece of bad juju that the Huskers have had in the Big Ten era. It could happen…just like I could win a truck from a lottery scratcher.

Personally, I would love to see six regular-season wins, with a chance for a seventh in a much-needed bowl game. Anything beyond that is gravy. Anything less? Let's see how those games play out before making any bold proclamations.

Will the Sellout Streak end this year?

As of today, the Streak is at 375 games and holding. The next home game (Sept. 4 vs. Fordham) is not sold out. I suspect there is a lot of tension about how it gets done. Currently, Nebraska is pushing three game "Mini-Plans" from six possible games. Pairs of tickets can also be found through the NU ticket office for the Buffalo, Northwestern, and Purdue games.

Note that I said "how" it will get done and not "if". I expect the sellout streak to survive the 2021 season, climbing to 382 games. Whether that is done by calling in the booster / corporate sponsor army, or selling tickets at a deep discount* will likely depend on how close they are to selling out. At the current face value of $70 per ticket (plus fees), it will be a challenge - especially when you can currently find better seats on StubHub for almost a quarter of the price.

*My suggestion: A "bring your kids" promotion where adults paying full price can get a student (13 or younger) in for free. Nebraska needs to start developing the next generation of fans, many of whom (such as my 8 year old son) would rather play video games or watch YouTube videos than sit through a football game.

The ongoing pandemic will also play a role. This week, Lincoln and Lancaster County reinstated a mask mandate. Nebraska announced that fans are "strongly encouraged" to wear a mask in their seats. Honestly, if the Streak is going to die, COVID-19 would be a pretty convenient cause of death. It would allow fans who still care about the Streak to save face with the national voices who will drop a hot take about the "continual decline of Nebraska football".

There a several discussions to be had about the validity of the Streak, its ongoing future, what Nebraska can do to sustain it, and whether or not you should care. I look forward to exploring these more this fall.

But I believe the Streak will live to see 2022.

Will the offense look different this year?

In theory, it should.

Frost and offensive coordinator Matt Lubick have the following at their disposal:

• A fourth year starting quarterback with excellent speed.
• Several talents running backs, many described as having "big bodies"
• An offensive line that is starting to fill in with 4 star talent.
• Two talented tight ends.

Without going down the "Identity" rabbit hole - a term used so often around Nebraska Football that it has lost its identity - I think Frost knows the formula for success. Not only does he know it, he PLAYED in it. I'm talking about the 1997 offense.

Take a look at some of the video from 1997. As much as it hurts, Ignore the parts with option pitches and fullback dives. What is left? A power running game behind a strong offensive line. A healthy mix of designed quarterback runs. Play action passing to a wide open tight end or receiver.

I know, I know: there are no Ahman Greens and no Aaron Taylors on the 2021 roster. Quarterback Frost was better at ball security than Adrian Martinez. But the foundational building blocks for a ball control, three yards and a cloud of rubber pellets, Big Ten smashmouth offense are there. Nebraska's most recent game - a 28-21 win at Rutgers, featuring 620 yards of total offense, 365 rushing, and a 2:1 time of possession advantage - was a viable proof of concept.

Can NU get through the season without off-the-field drama?

There's an old Simpsons scene that I'm reminded of every so often:

Sideshow Bob is following Bart into witness protection, hiding under a trailer. As he crawls out, he steps onto a rake and gets drilled in the face. He mutters, turns, takes another steps, and ….. BAM! A different rake smacks him right in the face. This cycle repeats a few times. Eventually, they pan out to show that Sideshow Bob is surrounded by rakes, unable to avoid his fate.

Sound familiar, Husker fans?

Since the 2020 season ended on a December night in Jersey, Nebraska has had more than its share of drama. Here is a quick (and likely incomplete) recap:

• The team voted to end the season instead of pursuing a potential bowl game.
• Two talented players - Luke McCaffrey and Wan'Dale Robinson - transferred out.
• A report that Nebraska was attempting to get out of the 50th Anniversary of the Game of the Century with Oklahoma is released. Nebraska is slow to respond and only keeps the game after blowback from fans, alumni, and media.
• Bill Moos' sudden "retirement" and multimillion-dollar "buyout".
• A report that Nebraska was facing NCAA investigation for improper use of analysts.

Honestly, there a couple of other items I'm forgetting or choosing to omit.

Scott Frost is facing enough challenges in his quest to turn around the football program, without having to deal with external distractions, drive-by hit pieces from national voices, and detailed analysis of his body language at press conferences.

I can't decide if winning will reduce / eliminate the external drama, or if reducing / eliminating the external drama will lead to more wins. Maybe it is a classic "chicken or the egg?" conundrum.

What I do know is a lot of the drama NU faces is self-inflicted. The entire athletic department needs to get better at not stepping on rakes. I confident that Trev Alberts can provide some much-needed guidance and leadership.