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Huskers Crack the Top 10 — in Schedule Difficulty

Nebraska's 2021 football slate is rated as high as No. 2 in the nation.

Joe Hudson

Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports

It's not exactly news that Nebraska football faces a difficult schedule this fall. But just how difficult?

How about second-toughest in the nation? That's how Pro Football Focus has it pegged.

Pro Football Focus ranks the Huskers' schedule behind only Arkansas.' After Nebraska come Georgia Tech, Purdue, South Carolina, Mississippi State, Indiana, Auburn, Ole Miss and Florida State. 

PFF uses its own formula to rate all the FBS teams and then uses those ratings to calculate strength of schedule.

That's similar to the approach of ESPN's FPI system, whose metrics place Nebraska's schedule well outside the top five but at a still-daunting No. 19. (See "SOS Remaining RK" at this link.)

Phil Steele's preseason magazine has Nebraska's schedule slotted at No. 10. Steele's formula is based on his 2021 power rankings with an adjustment for how many games are on the road.

A dirt-simple method is to combine opponents' win-loss records from the previous season. By this measure, the Huskers face the nation's 10th most difficult schedule. This formula has its obvious shortcomings, illustrated by the presence of Massachusetts in the No. 2 spot. (The UMass schedule is No. 88 in Steele's rankings and No. 93 in ESPN's.)

At this point, it's all mere guesswork. But even after the dust has settled next January, who's to say what constitutes degree of difficulty? On a scale of one to 10, if six opponents are an "8" and six are a "2," is that truly equal to a schedule consisting of a dozen "5s"? 

Your answer might depend on your team's current place in college football's pecking order. If you're an upper-tier team looking for your best chance to go undefeated, you'd probably opt for the dozen "5s" and hope the playoff committee doesn't mind. If you're merely gunning for bowl eligibility, the lineup with half a dozen "2s" might provide your best chance, even though you'll most likely take some serious lumps against all those "8s".

Along those lines, Nebraska will face five teams that finished in the top 25 last year, which Steele notes is tied for most in the nation. On the flip side, just one other 2021 FBS opponent had a winning 2020 record — but the quirks of the COVID-affected season might have played a part in that. 

However you slice it, it's safe to say that coach Scott Frost's task of returning Nebraska to postseason play for the first time since 2016 will be anything but easy.

Thanks to HuskerSuperGenius from the HuskerMax forums for providing the information from Phil Steele's magazine. 

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Joe Hudson
JOE HUDSON

Joe Hudson has operated a Husker-related website since 1995 and joined forces with David Max to form HuskerPedia (later renamed HuskerMax) in 1999. It began as a hobby during his 35 years as a newspaper editor and reporter, a career that included stints at the Lincoln Star, Omaha World-Herald, Philadelphia Inquirer and Denver Post. In Denver, Joe was chief of the copy desk during his final 16 years at the Post. He is proud to have been involved in Pulitzer Prize-winning projects in both Philadelphia and Denver. Joe has been a Nebraska football fan since the mid-1960s during his childhood in Omaha. He earned his bachelor of arts degree in journalism and economics at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln in 1976. He resides a few freeway exits north of Colorado Springs and enjoys bicycling and walking his dogs in his spare time. You can reach him at joeroyhud@outlook.com.

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