Nebraska, Matt Rhule and the New World of College Football Free Agency

Now that Rhule has pivoted to an aggressive approach to the transfer portal, what should come next? Jeremy Pernell sees a blueprint in the NFL.

Nebraska head coach Matt Rhule talks with an official during the Huskers' game against UCLA on Nov 2, 2024. / Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

When former athletic director Trev Alberts hired Matt Rhule in November 2022, the pair were aligned in the goal of making Nebraska the pre-eminent developmental program in college football. I contend that Rhule's track record of taking on massive rebuilds at struggling programs and orchestrating tremendously successful turnarounds played a big part in making him Trev's top choice over other candidates he considered like Luke Fickell and Bill O’Brien.

Rhule planned to replicate the blueprint that worked so well for him at Temple and Baylor. He didn't use the transfer portal to flip his roster, instead choosing to build a foundation from the ground up by signing large high school classes — including a robust walk-on program — and strategically developing them behind the scenes. Rhule approached his roster with the idea of redshirting players whenever possible to save eligibility and maximize development.

Further evolution of the college game suggests that playbook needs to be revised. With the 105-man roster cap and unlimited transfers, how much can Rhule afford to maintain that strategy? It's something that will need to be re-evaluated going forward.

I think the days of utilizing the four-game redshirt with an eye toward a player's third and fourth years in the program are basically over. We've seen enough movement in the transfer portal to know it's not sustainable. How often are you going to get that redshirted year on the back end of their career? That player is just as likely — perhaps more — to utilize that extra year of eligibility with another school.

With a smaller roster and players essentially playing year-to-year at a particular school, you need to derive as much value as possible from every player on the roster capable of helping you.

Nebraska linebacker Javin Wright (33) and defensive lineman Riley Van Poppel (94) celebrate after a turnover during the Huskers' 2023 game against Northern Illinois. / Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

It was in Riley Van Poppel's best interest to redshirt this past season to take advantage of an extra year of development and pausing his eligibility in the process. But you're probably doing the program a disservice because he could have helped the team this season and there's no guarantee he plays a fifth — or even fourth year at Nebraska.

What better example is there than James Williams? Redshirting Williams in 2023 — even though he was helping the team — benefited the player, no doubt, but Nebraska's getting zero return on that investment. Fast-forward 18 months and Williams is sending Rhule a thank-you card from Tallahassee.

Matt Rhule is a self-admitted analytics junkie. I think he sees the trend is moving away from that model.

Obviously, some players won't be ready to play meaningful snaps and I'm all for redshirting a kid if it happens organically. But moving forward in today's game, teams should never intentionally plan on redshirting anyone capable of contributing. That philosophy can be revisited once a collective bargaining agreement is in place and contracts are involved, but until that day, it's no longer advantageous.

Matt Rhule still wants Nebraska to be a developmental program, but the way he goes about doing that will need to be reimagined.

One of the most impressive things about Nebraska's head coach is his willingness to embrace the ever-changing college football landscape. He's not going to swim against the current to hold fast to outdated principles.

Just two years into his Husker tenure, we've already seen changes to how he runs his program. The approach he took while restructuring his coaching staff this offseason stood in stark contrast to what he's done previously in his career.

As the terms of the House v. NCAA antitrust settlement have come into focus, Rhule's done an about-face on his stance toward the transfer portal as well.

“My feeling on the portal has changed even through the course of the last year," Rhule told reporters during his signing day press conference. "Yeah, we're going to be aggressive in high school recruiting, and we're going to be aggressive in the portal because that's just the new way of doing things," Rhule continued. "When I was in the NFL, we tried to be aggressive in free agency. I just didn't want to flip the roster by coming in and telling kids to leave. But I don't have to do that now.”

I'm curious to see how he progresses in his approach toward player acquisition in general.

For decades, in an effort to bolster the "wow factor" in recruiting, college football programs had been engaged in a facilities arms race. Heck, in September, Nebraska officially completed its own football mecca — a 315,000-square-foot state-of-the-art facility that came with a $165 million price tag.

In September 2023, former athletic director Trev Alberts put plans in motion for an estimated $450 million renovation of Memorial Stadium. Last March, Alberts left for Texas A&M and in May, his successor, Troy Dannen, pivoted from those plans.

With NIL and revenue sharing taking over college football, programs have shifted gears. Schools have shelved plans to remodel their stadiums or spruce up the amenities inside their facilities in an attempt to keep up with the Joneses. Programs are rethinking where and how they want to allocate resources.

Teams are starting to realize the new arms race is centered around the management of their roster and having the financial means to add and retain top talent.

Revenue sharing could begin as early as July 1, and Nebraska is expected to allocate around $14.5 million toward its football roster. The 1890 Initiative is on solid ground, and that's going to be important moving forward, as it will be vital to supplement wages of the top players on the team.

Talent acquisition has always been a program's lifeblood, but as prominent teams navigate the new normal of college football, I believe that building a sizable scouting department will be the avenue teams take to separate themselves from their peers.

Think about how much the game has changed. Less than 10 years ago, a position coach doubled as the team's recruiting coordinator and you could count on one hand how many off-field staffers were part of the recruiting department. That is such an archaic setup that it's hard to imagine it was the norm not that long ago. It really puts in perspective how far the game has evolved.

New North Carolina head coach Bill Belichick. / Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

When Bill Belichick took the job at North Carolina two weeks ago, one of the first things he did was hire former NFL GM Michael Lombardi to build an NFL-style personnel department to evaluate talent in the transfer portal and scout high school players. It was a brilliant move that will soon be replicated by programs across the country.

My recruiting department would be inundated with prominent, established high school coaches hired from high-priority recruiting areas. Taking into account Nebraska's geographical location and Rhule's refocused recruiting strategy, those key areas are Kansas City, St. Louis, Dallas and Houston. I would have a couple representatives from each of those spots.

I would also prioritize large Midwest cities that have historically funneled players in and around the area to regional Big Ten schools such as Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland, Minneapolis and Indianapolis. I'd also include Denver and Tulsa in that network. I would have someone represented from every national hotspot like Miami, Los Angeles, Atlanta, New Orleans, the DMV and the Mid-Atlantic region.

Look at how much it has paid off having Phil Simpson and Jamar Mozee in support staff roles.

Simpson was a defensive quality control coach on Matt Rhule's initial staff in 2023. During his lone year in Lincoln, Simpson — who was named Miami-Dade County Coach of the Year in 2021 and 2022 — was instrumental in Nebraska signing Miami-area players Jacory Barney, Vincent Shavers, Willis McGahee IV, Amare Sanders and Larry Tarver in the 2024 class. He also laid the groundwork for four-star WR Cortez Mills, who subsequently signed with Nebraska in December.

Simpson was hired as the outside linebackers coach Dec. 12 after spending the 2024 season as a senior defensive analyst with Florida State.

Mozee was hired as a senior football assistant in mid-July after spending a couple months on Gus Malzahn's UCF staff. Mozee was one of the most respected coaches in the Kansas City area while at Lee's Summit (Mo.) North High from 2015 to 2023, helping more than 140 of his players earn scholarships.

In just five months, Mozee was integral in flipping a trio of four-star players from his old stomping grounds. He is the reason WR Isaiah Mozee (Oregon) and OT JuJu Marks (Kansas) signed with the Huskers, and he played a big role in helping to get OLB Dawson Merritt away from Alabama. Mozee is also responsible for Nebraska gaining the commitment of 2024 five-star edge Williams Nwaneri (Missouri) out of the transfer portal.

I would be shocked if Mozee wasn't part of Rhule's revised offensive staff after the bowl game.

Essentially, I would extrapolate on the success and impact Simpson and Mozee had by implementing that strategy on a larger scale. I would highlight both of their career trajectories as a selling point to other coaches I target for my recruiting staff.

As members of a support staff, prominent high school coaches would have an intimate knowledge of players in their area. Oftentimes they'd have established relationships with top players either from having coached them, or coached against them. There'd be instances where they already have a connection to their family or coach. Relationships matter, so getting as many assets on staff as possible should be a priority.

The transfer portal just gets more and more hectic. The number of players entering the portal has gone up every year since 2019, with 3,843 players having entered last year. Around 2,300 players have already entered the portal since it opened Dec. 9, and with the upcoming 105-man roster you can expect another record-breaking offseason of entrants.

The truncated portal window has always been a chaotic free-for-all with rushed vetting and shotgun marriages. It's a tough evaluation process because it happens at breakneck speeds.

And keep in mind everyone is in the portal for a different reason. The key is figuring out why. Is it a red flag or something you can capitalize on? Is a player just trying to get as much money as possible? Is he trying to elevate his draft stock? Is he looking for more playing time? A better schematic fit? Is he injury prone? A head case? A hidden gem buried on the depth chart?

The transfer portal has always been the wild wild west, but a robust, organized scouting department can bring some order to the chaos during the mad scramble to remake your roster. The more information and existing relationships you have with players, the more prepared you'll be.

My department tasked with handling the transfer portal would be spearheaded by people with NFL scouting backgrounds.

NFL scouts are proficient at finding players with upside and potential, of course, but they also have a keen eye for recognizing players who are fits for the schemes their teams run. It's an overlooked skillset in the evaluation process.

Football is about putting players in the best position. You don't want to ask a player to do something he isn't good at. Someone could be a standout in one scheme and struggle in another. You want to limit your miss rate on players, particularly in the portal. Finding schematic fits is crucial.

Nebraska's offensive line readies to take on the UTEP defense during the second quarter on Aug. 31, 2024. / Kenny Larabee, KLIN

For example, if you're looking for help on the D-line and you run an attacking one-gap scheme, if you're looking at a player in the portal and they've only played in a reactive two-gap front, you better have an accurate evaluation because those are vastly different schemes. If you're looking for help along the O-line and you run a gap scheme, if you're eyeballing a guard in the portal who is coming from a zone scheme, again, you better be sure his skillset translates.

That's why having professional scouts heading your operation is a no-brainer. Projecting a player's skillset is a talent. You want proven people doing that for you.

Ideally, you're bringing someone in who has a background playing well in a similar system to your own. But you also need to know if there's a player in the portal who was misused at his previous school but has the skillset to thrive in your system.

When it comes to the transfer portal, I've always been a huge proponent of production over potential. Far too often we've seen schools — including Nebraska — bring in a player who has languished at his previous school for several years and fall into the trap of "he's just been stuck behind really good players."

If you're bringing in an upperclassmen who has barely seen the field, most of the time you're inheriting another program's recruiting miss.

If I'm going to bring in a blue-chip recruit who hasn't seen the field much at his previous school and banking on his upside, my preference is that he's been on campus for only a year, maybe two. After three years, history tells us you have either hit or missed at that point. If you're on a milk carton after three years, it's a red flag.

I am always going to lean toward adding players with production in their ledgers. Whether it's at the FCS, Group of Five or Power Four level, if you have a track record for producing, again, the stats tell us you're far more likely to make a mark after transferring — even if you're moving up in competition.

With the amount of money involved in the game now and the salaries players are now getting, there's no excuse for carrying dead weight on your roster. Pandora's box has been opened. In today's landscape, unless you're an offensive lineman, you might get two offseasons to develop on a roster before you’re asked to be a key contributor. If you can't, you're at real risk of being recruited over and processed.

Welcome to the new age of college football. Players are about to find out just how performance-based their roster spot will be.

The month of December is such a frenzied time for coaches. They need to close the books on their high school recruiting class and then immediately pivot toward the transfer portal. All while dealing with attrition and tampering of their own rosters. Oh, and don't forget about bowl preparations. It's a frenetic balancing act.

Matt Rhule would be best served to have someone with scouting and executive experience in charge of his personnel department, much the same way as what we're seeing at North Carolina with Bill Belichick.

Like Belichick, Matt Rhule would be the CEO who gave direction and had the final say, but with how much is involved in scouting and acquiring talent — and how much that takes coaches away from what they do best — having someone in place to handle that aspect of the day-to-day operation would be beneficial.

Not only do you need someone with a keen scouting eye and organizational skills to run the department, you need someone adept at assessing in-house talent and determining their market value. Someone with experience handling free agency and budgeting the roster.

As you're identifying high school talent to recruit, maneuvering the transfer portal, and continually trying to mange your 105-man roster, what better resource could you have than someone who has dealt with the equivalency at the NFL level?

With so many aspects of the job being similar to what NFL general managers deal with, if I were Matt Rhule, I would fill the role with someone currently serving in a similar capacity in the NFL.

You're not going to get a sitting NFL GM to take that position, but being in charge of a college personnel department is going to be a prominent position. Running a successful program will provide an opportunity for career advancement. If you pay competitively, I think you can lure attractive candidates for the job.

There are several names I would target: Ryan Grigson (Minnesota Vikings Sr. VP of player personnel), Jeff Oreland (New Orleans Saints asst. GM), Ian Cunningham (Chicago Bears asst. GM), Ray Agnew (Detroit Lions asst. GM), Jon-Eric Sullivan (Green Bay Packers VP of player personnel) and George Kokinis (Baltimore Ravens VP of player personnel) — just to name a few.

Matt Rhule's stint in the NFL gives him perspective on where the college game is headed, and it will serve him well as he continues to evolve with the new era. I firmly believe a large NFL-style personnel department with skilled talent evaluators and formidable recruiting staffers is the future.

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