Jeremy Pernell: An NFL Draft That's Top-Heavy With Offensive Talent

If you're a team in need of a top-shelf quarterback, wide receiver or offensive tackle, then you're in luck

USC quarterback Caleb Williams. / Jason Parkhurst-USA TODAY Sports

This is the first in a series of three articles by Jeremy Pernell previewing the 2024 NFL Draft. Check back tomorrow for part 2.

For the second year in a row, the Chicago Bears control the NFL Draft. It's only the sixth time in history the same team came out of the regular season owning the top overall selection in back-to-back years.

The Bears are in this position because they traded last year's top pick to Carolina in exchange for a huge haul: wide receiver DJ Moore, the Nos. 9 and 61 picks in the 2023 draft, a 2024 first-round pick and a 2025 second-round pick. Carolina subsequently went 2-15 last season, gifting the Bears the No. 1 overall pick and completing one of the most lopsided trades in recent memory.

Part of the reason Chicago came out so far ahead is due to the fact they are now in position to draft a transformational quarterback. In a passing league, it’s impossible to be a perennial contender — or even a semi-consistent contender — without an elite quarterback.

The term "generational talent" gets tossed around more than it should in today's hyperbolic click-bait world of sports journalism. I never use that term with a prospect. I save that moniker for players who've earned it as pros.

With that said, the overwhelming majority of draft pundits have put that label on Caleb Williams — and to their point, the young man is supremely talented.

This will be the 29th NFL Draft that I've evaluated. The only quarterbacks I've given a higher draft grade to during that time are Peyton Manning (1998), Trevor Lawrence (2021) and Andrew Luck (2012). Looking back at my grades, the only other quarterbacks who I would even put in his league as a prospect are Joe Burrow (2020), Eli Manning (2004), Matt Ryan (2008), Michael Vick (2001), Carson Palmer (2003) and Matthew Stafford (2009). Again, based purely on their incoming draft grades, I have Williams No. 4 among guys I've scouted dating back to 1996.

The Bears officially cleared the deck for Williams on March 16, when they closed the book on the Justin Fields era by trading him to the Pittsburgh Steelers for a conditional 2025 sixth-round pick.

When the Bears turn in the card to draft Caleb Williams on Thursday, it will mark the first time since 1947 that Chicago will be selecting someone No. 1 overall. In doing so, they hope to land what has eluded them for most of their 104 years: a franchise quarterback.

Putting aside Chicago's storyline, the overall depth of this draft class is relatively thin. The top-end talent drops off in the late-third to early-fourth round. Factors like NIL and the residual effects of the extra COVID year have played a part in only 58 early entrants, which is the fewest since 2011.

That doesn't mean there aren't several elite prospects in this draft, however. If you're a team in need of a quarterback, wide receiver or offensive line help — in particular at tackle — then you're in luck.

This is a deep quarterback class — at least toward the top. In my opinion, in many years LSU's Jayden Daniels would be a comfortable No. 1 overall pick. Some evaluators feel that way about North Carolina's Drake Maye as well.

In a group that features two Heisman Trophy winners, you could see as many as six quarterbacks taken in the first round, which hasn't happened since the famed 1983 draft. There is speculation that four could be taken within the first six picks, which has never happened.

I've had the same two players ranked 1-2 for this draft since October 2022: Caleb Williams and Marvin Harrison Jr. For as much "generational" talk that Williams gets at quarterback, Harrison is on the same level as a receiver prospect. The only receivers I have given a higher draft grade to are Randy Moss (1998) and Calvin Johnson (2007).

Outside of those two, the only other receivers I would put in Harrison's league entering the draft are Larry Fitzgerald (2004), Ja'Marr Chase (2021), Andre Johnson (2003), A.J. Green (2011) and Julio Jones (2011).

But he's not the only elite prospect at the position. LSU's Malik Nabers and Washington's Rome Odunze are both special talents as well. In almost any other draft, Nabers and Odunze are comfortably WR1.

In fact, this is the deepest wide receiver draft I have ever scouted. The record for most receivers taken in the first round is seven, which was set in 2004. That number could be equaled or eclipsed this year. Looking further than that, the current record for number of receivers drafted in the first three rounds is 17 — I wouldn't be surprised if we see that broken.

Those aren't the only position groups that could be challenging records. The highest number of offensive tackles taken in the first round is seven, which was set in 2008. That's another one to keep an eye on. And finally, the record for offensive players taken in the first round is 19, I expect that to be broken.

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