Matt Rhule, Year Three, and What We Can Learn From Previous Husker Coaches

Josh Peterson and Jack Mitchell go through important third years for past Husker coaches and try to find what could be applicable for Matt Rhule's 2025 group.

I-80 Club

On this week's I-80 LIVE, Josh Peterson and Jack Mitchell took a look at Nebraska's third years under Frank Solich, Bill Callahan, Bo Pelini, Mike Riley, and Scott Frost. What lessons are there to be learned from those seasons that we can apply to 2025? This is based off Josh's recent column for HuskerMax.

Below is a lightly edited transcript of their conversation on the podcast. 

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Josh: The premise of my column was why year threes kind of predicted what was next for Frank Solich, Bo Pelini, Bill Callahan, Scott Frost, Mike Riley, and what that could mean for Nebraska in 2025. And so, I want to go through some of these [seasons] and see if you think that this is something that is applicable to the 2025 season.

So the year three for Frank Solich, why I thought that that was like a predictor of what went wrong was that they proved that they were unable to win on the road against ranked teams. Nebraska under Frank Solich was horrible against ranked teams on the road. They were 1-9. In 2000, they beat Notre Dame. That was the only and the last time that Nebraska ever won a ranked game on the road under Frank Solich.

Sep 9,2000; South Bend, IN, USA; FILE PHOTO; Nebraska Cornhuskers quarterback #7 Eric Crouch in action against Notre Dame Irish at Notre Dame Stadium. Nebraska defeated Notre Dame 27-24 in overtime. / RVR Photos-Imagn Images

And so, I wrote, “what does it mean for the 2025 Huskers?” Not so much that Matt Rhule struggles on the road versus ranked teams, it's that he struggles against ranked teams. We all know the record, right? He's 2-22. He's horrible. He's never won a game versus a ranked team at Nebraska. Nebraska actually has not beaten a ranked team since 2016. Is that applicable? Do you think that that is an applicable conversation to the 2025 Matt Rhule Huskers? Could that be a sign of bad things to come?

Jack: The way that you were using it was a new thing though, kind of, right? That was kind of a new thing. This won't be a new thing. It's never happened under Rhule, right? So, it's a little bit hard to analogize it, I guess, for me to that. But yes, if they continue not to beat ranked teams, they're still not going to have a big win. They're still probably not going to have a good season. And, you know, the final record is going to be indicative of that, whatever it ends up being.

I don't know what they'll do. It's too early to predict that like what the line is, but yeah, at that point you start to say, “I'll be surprised if this clicks somehow at this point,” right? It’s hard to imagine. Maybe I'll change my tune after I see the season, but it's hard to imagine them having the same record next year, still going to a bowl, same record as last year and saying, “okay, but the next one is the year that it happens.” At some point, I think you do have to be sort of realistic about when that happens and I'm not giving [up] hope for this year, but at some point that has to start.

Josh: Well along those lines, I think that's going to lead into maybe the most obvious one. And that was year three under Bill Callahan. So that was 2006. And for those who don't remember, they are coming off of the game that we spent a few minutes talking about earlier. And that was the “Restore The Order” game in 2005. And Nebraska was ranked. They went on the road against USC. They played not to lose by a million points. They didn't. They lost by 18. And after that, they hosted a game versus Texas. Very famous game. They lose that in heartbreaking fashion. They lose to Oklahoma State. They lose in the Big 12 Championship, because they did win the North, and then they lost their bowl game.

And so, why was this a sign of things to come? It was that they could not take the next step as a program. They had multiple opportunities. The Texas game, the Oklahoma game. True benchmarks. Beat a top five team – Texas – win a conference championship for the first time since 1999, unable to do that. And to apply it to this year, I wrote “the bar has most certainly been lowered in the 19 years since 2006. At the time, taking the next step was getting back into the top ten.” Now, what is the next step, Jack? And so, I would ask you this; Is there a bar where if they don't reach it, we're saying, golly, maybe it's not this. Maybe he is unable to take whatever that proverbial next step is at Nebraska? I think some people would probably say eight wins. Some would say nine, maybe. I don't know.

Jack: I think if he doesn't show improvement – and if you want to just base that solely on wins and losses because that's a short of hand way to do it, then that's it – If it's not a better year this year than last year, that's the bottom line of it. Now, if there is improvement, you probably get into some disagreements about how much improvement there needs to be.

December 30, 2010; San Diego, CA, USA; Nebraska Cornhuskers quarterback Taylor Martinez (3) against the Washington Huskies during the Holiday Bowl at Qualcomm Stadium. / Christopher Hanewinckel-Imagn Images

Josh: Yeah, for sure. 2010, year three, that was Bo Pelini. Why was this a bad sign of things to come? Well, it's funny, I used a word, fishbowl, that has been mentioned within the last few minutes from Dave Feit, where he wrote, “very few people are cut out for this fishbowl. Toxic fans with unrealistic expectations.”

I very much thought that the fishbowl nature of Nebraska got to the entire program that year. That was a very famous fall camp with Bo Pelini, always wanting to fight, it seemed, with reporters. He went after a message board runner in the basement of the Cornhusker Hotel the morning of the Texas game. His brother went after a cameraman after the Texas A&M game. Harvey Perlman had to put out a statement. It is the greatest season. I love that season. I wish that I could have been doing daily radio.

What would what could this mean for 2025? Honestly Jack, it's kind what we talked about to start off this whole conversation and that's like, man, Matt Rhule just seems a little bit on edge right now in a way that he is not in the first two years.

Jack: Right. Which doesn't seem to be real promising for loosening up and winning in the fourth quarter. That's the one thing. I'm sure it's way easier said than done but I do wish he came off as completely confident right now, because he doesn't. Now, I can't imagine how he could. I don't blame him for not feeling that way, but it sure would be nice if he really was. And if there was some level of calm in the program, whatever it is that can get you over the, “oh here we go again” in the fourth quarter. It doesn't matter even if you've got a huge lead.

I don't know what it's gonna take. I don't know if it's gonna be Dylan Raiola. I don't know if it's gonna be the players. I don't know if it's gonna be the new coaches that are brought in. Maybe Dana Holgorsen, right? I'm sure plenty of people had play calling complaints about the fourth quarters where Nebraska got outplayed or gave up a lead, right? Passing it too much, not running clock. So, maybe [with] Dana there's just gonna be some level of calm. You would think he would be fairly calm about it.

Josh: Two more then. Mike Riley, 2017. I don't know how much of this is applicable, Jack. He got fired.  That was the hardest one for me to come up with. What is applicable? What could this mean? “Why was year three a bad sign of things to come for Mike Riley?” He got fired. So, I almost had nothing. I wrote, “I don't think Matt Rhule’s on the hot seat, but I didn't think Mike Riley was either. I guess it's best that there it doesn't exist a 2025 version of Scott Frost out there like there.”

Iowa left end Chauncey Golston hits Nebraska quarterback Adrian Martinez to force a fumble late in the game at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City on Friday, Nov. 27, 2020. / Bryon Houlgrave/The Register via Imagn Content Services, LLC

The last one is obviously Frost and his year three was COVID. Why was that a sign of bad things to come? Honestly, I think that this just kind of ties back into what we have been talking about today. And that is that like years one and two, if you wanted to believe in Frost, there were a lot of excuses to be made.

I certainly was making them throughout 2018. I kind of stopped making them in 2019. But if you wanted to, you could say, this didn't go his way. What about the Akron game? What about the injuries? All of these things, right? Where they're just they're not getting dealt a good hand. And I know that people still said that after the COVID year. So, I'm not going to pretend that everybody was like, “oh yeah, okay, he actually is bad.” 2020, everything just kind of came home to roost in a way where I thought it was inarguable.

I do wonder, Jack, if you and I are doing a pod in October and we're like, “wow, another bad fourth quarter, huh?” That would maybe be a sign of things to come, right?

Jack: Yeah, that's true. Maybe that's more what it is, is the same exact problems hold them back. Melting down in the fourth quarter.

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Watch the entire episode below, including a deep dive into Matt Rhule's fourth quarter problem, spring ball, and more!

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