Nebraska Football vs. Illinois: An Inflection Point for the Season

Can the Cornhuskers' confident culture cure its conference curses? The answer will come Friday against Illinois.

Aug 31, 2024; Lincoln, Nebraska, USA; Nebraska Cornhuskers head coach Matt Rhule reacts during the second quarter against the UTEP Miners at Memorial Stadium. / Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

As the Huskers head into a top-25 matchup with the Illinois Fighting Illini on Friday night, the nation's eyes will once again be upon them, making this game, like the prime time matchup with Colorado, one of the most watched of the weekend. In the Bo Pelini, Mike Riley, and Scott Frost eras, Nebraska wilted during isolated games that had little competition for viewership with other games.

While Matt Rhule secured a victory against Illinois on a Friday night in 2023, the season was bookended with 13-10 weekday losses. Heading into this Friday night, Nebraska faces a daunting list of curses: a 2-4 all-time record against Bret Bielema, no victories over a ranked opponent since 2016, and the looming possibility of another lackluster performance in the national spotlight.

Rhule has built a strong culture in the locker room. On Friday, that culture can spill into the stands and give the fans a reason to have expectations again.

An Arbitrary Analytics passing graph. /

Illini quarterback Luke Altmyer has been a standout, ranking 23rd in the country for EPA per dropback. This is despite Illinois only ranking 10th in the Big Ten in passing yards. His performance against Kansas, Illinois's most formidable opponent in 2024, was a rollercoaster. Altmyer experienced a dip in EPA before the Illinois offense rallied, scoring 10 fourth-quarter points to secure a close win. While Illinois ranks 22nd in EPA per pass play, their success has largely been against weaker opponents in Eastern Illinois and Central Michigan, making their potential against Nebraska an intriguing prospect.

Nebraska quarterback Dylan Raiola has been a reliable force, doing what he’s been asked and, at times, looking exceptional. He boasts the fourth highest completion percentage in the Big Ten Conference, a testament to his skill and the team's strategy. The Huskers are among the best teams in the nation at spreading the ball around to different players, with six players already tallying 5+ catches. Raiola's ability to extend plays and wait for a receiver to get open is a key strength.

This week, I expect to see a number of Huskers making significant contributions, resulting in a strong offensive performance.

An Arbitrary Analytics rushing table. /

Illinois rushers have shown the ability to break off big runs this season, a potential game-changer. Their top four rushers all have multiple carries go for at least 10 yards, showcasing their explosive potential. However, they’ve only managed four rushing touchdowns all season, and their rushing EPA for the season ranks 68th. On the other hand, Nebraska’s Dante Dowdell has been a punishing rusher, averaging nearly 6 YPC. His 7.27 EPA on runs ranks 62nd in the country in 2024 and is already higher than any Husker running back had in 2023, setting the stage for an exciting game.  

After the last decade of Nebraska football, this game feels like one the Huskers should not only lose but also embarrass themselves. Raiola and Rhule are propelling Nebraska through a culture shift. First-down penalties no longer guarantee a punt three plays later.  The offense and defense have both contributed in a way not seen in Lincoln since the last time a Raiola was suiting up for the Huskers.

I think the Huskers will win Friday and start changing the perception of Nebraska football created in the Big Ten era, showing that it finally belongs with the top teams in the league.

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