Nebraska Football vs. Rutgers: An Opportunity for an Old School Husker Performance

Rutgers has a stout pass defense that could give Raiola trouble. But a porous run defense offers an opportunity for a big day on the ground for the Huskers.

Sep 28, 2024; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Nebraska Cornhuskers running back Emmett Johnson (21) pushes off against Purdue Boilermakers defensive back Dillon Thieneman (31) during the second half at Ross-Ade Stadium. / Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

Rutgers comes to Lincoln with a perfect record, while the Huskers are coming off a comfortable win against Purdue in a weird game.

The Scarlet Knights are among the most disciplined teams in the Big Ten, ranking in the bottom three teams in the conference in both turnovers and penalties. The Huskers have had their opponents flagged for more penalty yards than any other team in the conference. While Nebraska has made plenty of mistakes, they’ve been able to capitalize on opponent mistakes. The Huskers might have to find a new way to win, as Rutgers is unlikely to give them any extra opportunities.

Husker Dylan Raiola and Scarlet Knight Athan Kaliakmanis have been on a similar trajectory for EPA this year.  Kaliakmanis has already played and beat Nebraska twice in his career. He took over Minnesota's offense for an injured Tanner Morgan at halftime in 2022 and outscored the Huskers 20-3 in the second half to secure a 20-13 win. Rutgers hasn’t thrown much this season, ranking 120th in passing plays per game and 10th in rushes per game.

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Raiola’s smooth upward trend is what I like to see for a quarterback in a season. He’s continuing to make winning plays for the Huskers, but this might be his most demanding task yet. The Rutgers defense is ranked 20th in EPA allowed per drop back at -0.21. The best defense Raiola has currently faced is Illinois, at -0.11 EPA allowed per drop back, ranking 51st in college football.

While Raiola might face his most formidable challenge, the running game will face its easiest one. Rutgers ranks 128th in EPA per play against the run, at 0.23 EPA allowed every rush attempt. Their best run defense performance of the season came against Howard, who still managed 146 yards on the ground (New Jersey’s Ivy League Team, Princeton, held Howard to just 92 yards rushing).

While the Huskers should have success running the ball against a weaker opponent, Rutgers' Kyle Monangai should also have success. He enters this game as the nation’s fifth-leading rusher (second in the Big Ten). He’s avoided negative plays and has big play upside, with a few runs going 25+ yards.

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I expect the sideline change to work in Nebraska’s favor this week. Compared to Monangai, Rutgers' other running backs are more prone to negative carries. The unseasonably hot forecast could force more Rutgers back rotations, aiding Nebraska's run defense.

Last week, I said Nebraska needed to run the ball, and I think they need the same strategy this week. The Huskers got creative against Purdue, with Jacory Barney leading the team in rushing while Dante Dowdell had his worst game as a Husker. I’d like to see Emmett Johnson and Rahmir Johnson get a little more involved in the run game this week and get Dowdell a little extra rest, even with the bye week approaching.

With the Huskers likely to learn from their mistakes last week, I anticipate a game where they control the ground and secure a comfortable win.

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