Nebraska’s Playoff Outlook after Week 8 + Playoff Tiers by Conference

How disastrous was Week 8 for Nebraska’s playoff chances?

Indiana's Tayven Jackson (2) passes during the Indiana versus Nebraska football game at Memorial Stadium on Saturday, Oct. 19, 2024. / Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Losing to Indiana did not end Nebraska’s playoff chances, but it made it much more implausible. Nebraska would almost certainly have to win all of its remaining games in order to have a reasonable chance at getting an at-large invitation. With Ohio State on deck, that is a tough row to hoe. Let’s look at what happened in Week 8….

7 - Nebraska (5-2)
56 - #16 Indiana (7-0)
This was a tough game to comprehend. Indiana is good, but they are not 7 touchdowns better than Nebraska. Even if Nebraska had had no turnovers and had scored every time that they were in the red zone, they almost certainly would have still lost by 3 touchdowns. With the win, Indiana is now ranked #13, and Ohio State is the only ranked team left on their schedule. If Indiana wins their other games and at least looks respectable against Ohio State, they will be in the front of the line for an at-large playoff bid.

30 - #5 Georgia (6-1)
15 - #1 Texas (6-1)
Not only did Georgia go to Texas and win by 2 touchdowns, they did so with 3 interceptions. It was an incredibly impressive victory. Georgia moved up to #2 in this week’s poll, and Texas dropped to #5.

35 - #2 Oregon (7-0)
0 - Purdue (1-6)
Oregon moved to #1 with this win and Texas’ loss to Georgia. While it may not seem that significant that they beat Purdue, the fact that they did it on the road on a Friday night immediately following a monumental win over Ohio State makes it much more impressive.

52 - #6 Miami (7-0)
45 - Louisville (4-3)
Miami apparently likes to keep things interesting as they pulled out yet another win in yet another last-second shoot-out. Miami stayed at #6 for this week.

17 - #7 Alabama (5-2)
24 - #11 Tennessee (6-1)
There’s joy in Knoxville and panic in Tuscaloosa. The score could have been much worse if Tennessee had connected on a few more of their long passes. The Vols moved up to #7 in this week’s ratings, and Alabama dropped to #15.

34 - #8 LSU (6-1)
10 - Arkansas (4-3)
If you haven’t been following closely, you might be surprised to see that LSU and Texas A&M sit alone atop the SEC as the only remaining teams without a conference loss. The Tigers remain at #8 this week.

31 - Virginia (4-3)
48 - #10 Clemson (6-1)
Clemson wins again. The Tigers’ offense has taken flight after it fizzled against Georgia in their first game. With the win they move up to #9 in this week’s poll.

35 - UCF (3-4)
38 - #9 Iowa State (7-0)
The good news for the Cyclones is that they remain unbeaten, but the bad news is that their run defense was porous, and they needed 4th quarter heroics to pull out the win. They fall to #10 in this week’s poll.

31 - #12 Notre Dame (6-1)
13 - Georgia Tech (5-3)
A win on the road keeps Notre Dame ranked at #12.

35 - Oklahoma State (3-4)
38 - #13 BYU (7-0)
BYU needed a dramatic final drive to remain undefeated, but they got it done. The win moved them up to #11 in this week’s poll.

34 - #14 Texas A&M (6-1)
24 - Mississippi State (1-6)
The Aggies win again, staying unbeaten in conference play. They remain at #14 for this week’s showdown with LSU.

45 - #17 Kansas State (6-1)
18 - West Virginia (3-4)
Kansas State looked impressive, handling West Virginia on the road. The win moved them up one spot to #16 in this week’s poll.

17 - Auburn (2-5)
21 - #19 Missouri (6-1)
Missouri pulled out the win, but Auburn was the better team. Missouri moved down to #21 in this week’s poll.

40 - #21 SMU (6-1)
10 - Stanford (2-5)
The Mustangs won by 30 on the road, but apparently that didn’t garner much respect because they still dropped to #22 in this week’s poll.

7 - #24 Michigan (4-3)
21 - #22 Illinois (6-1)
Illinois got out to an early lead, and Michigan was unable to score to catch up. The Illini move up to #20 in this week’s poll.

28 - East Carolina (3-4)
45 - #23 Army (7-0)
Army’s win was impressive enough to lead to East Carolina replacing their coach, but Army remains at #23 for this week’s poll.

17 - Charlotte (3-4)
51 - #25 Navy (6-0)
Navy moves up one spot to #24 in this week’s poll.

Nebraska’s Other Opponents’ Games (Listed in BOLD)
UTEP (1-6) beat Florida International (2-5) on Wednesday, 30-21

Colorado (5-2) drilled Arizona (3-4), 34-7

Northern Iowa (2-5) lost to North Dakota (5-2), 31-7

UCLA (2-5) beat Rutgers (4-3), 35-32

#4 Ohio State (5-1) BYE

USC (3-4) blew a 14-point 4th-quarter lead to Maryland (4-3), losing 29-28

Wisconsin (5-2) walloped Northwestern (3-4), 23-3

Playoff Projections by Tiers
All of the Power 4 conference teams with less than 3 losses are arranged in tiers below to illustrate where they stand in pecking order for playoff invitations. Similarly, Notre Dame and the G5 teams that have less than 2 losses are also listed by tier. The tiers are mostly concerned with who will receive the at-large bids as the 5 highest rated conference champions will receive automatic bids. It is also difficult to predict what will happen to the teams that lose the conference championship games.
• Tier 1 teams are the highest ranked undefeated teams who are likely able to lose 2 games and still have an at-large invitation to the playoffs.
• Tier 2 teams are those who can afford to lose one more game and would almost certainly make the playoffs. These are predominantly undefeated teams who were not initially ranked in the top 5, plus those with one loss who were very highly ranked earlier in the season.
• Tier 3 teams are those who would likely make the playoffs if they win the rest of their games, but they cannot afford any more losses.
• Tier 4 teams are those who still have a reasonable chance at making the playoffs, but only if the following happen:
1. They win all of their remaining games.
2. Enough of their peers lose.

SEC
Tier 1 [none]
Tier 2 = Georgia (6-1), Texas (6-1), Tennessee (6-1), Texas A&M (6-1), LSU (6-1)
Tier 3 = Alabama (5-2), Missouri (6-1)
Tier 4 = Ole Miss (5-2), Vanderbilt (5-2)

Big Ten
Tier 1 = Oregon (7-0)
Tier 2 = Ohio State (5-1), Penn State (6-0), Indiana (7-0)
Tier 3 = Illinois (6-1)
Tier 4 = Nebraska (5-2), Wisconsin (5-2)

ACC
Tier 1 = [none]
Tier 2 = Miami (7-0), Pitt (6-0), Clemson (6-1)
Tier 3 = SMU (6-1), Duke (6-1), Syracuse (5-1)
Tier 4 = [none]

Big 12
Tier 1 = [none]
Tier 2 = Iowa State (7-0), BYU (7-0)
Tier 3 = Kansas State (6-1)
Tier 4 = Texas Tech (5-2), Cincinnati (5-2), Arizona State (5-2), Colorado (5-2)

The list of tiers is updated each week throughout the season. A Tier 5 will be added when/if needed as it consists of teams that are not yet mathematically eliminated but are highly implausible to be in contention.

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