Nebraska vs. Northern Iowa: The Transition to Conference Play

The Northern Iowa offense is a great transition game for the Huskers before conference play starts.
Nov 11, 2023; Lincoln, Nebraska, USA; Nebraska Cornhuskers defensive lineman Nash Hutmacher (0) celebrates after getting a stop on fourth down against the Maryland Terrapins during the third quarter at Memorial Stadium.
Nov 11, 2023; Lincoln, Nebraska, USA; Nebraska Cornhuskers defensive lineman Nash Hutmacher (0) celebrates after getting a stop on fourth down against the Maryland Terrapins during the third quarter at Memorial Stadium. / Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

Coming off a big win against Colorado, Nebraska football gets to prepare for its next game as a member of the AP Top 25.

Northern Iowa is a good FCS team. Bill Connelly ranks them as the 8th-best FCS team and 108th-best in all divisions of college football. Offensively, UNI is the opposite of Colorado, ranking as one of FCS's best-rushing offensives and one of the worst passing offensives. This game can potentially be a trap game, but it also is a great transition game for facing Big Ten offenses.

Note: My college football data source only has rosters for FBS teams, so this week’s graphics feature only Husker players

Dylan Raiola and the Husker offense started quickly, bolstered by Tommi Hill’s pick-six. Dylan Raiola’s EPA peaked after the great play by Rahmir Johnson to pull down a pass that probably should’ve been intercepted.

However, in the second half, Raiola only managed two successful plays. I don’t blame Raiola for the second half, though. The Huskers called a very conservative game in the second half, avoiding major mistakes. A few big plays were called back due to penalties that would’ve put points on the board or given the Huskers a better opportunity to score.

Most importantly, Raiola became the first Husker starting QB since Eric Crouch in 1998 to have no turnovers in the season's first two games.

Nebraska Passing vs. Northern Iowa.
Nebraska Passing vs. Northern Iowa. /

The Husker backfield is becoming a two-headed attack, with Dante Dowdell and Rahmir Johnson getting most of the carries. The most notable thing about the chart below is the lack of negative plays. The sack Dylan Raiola took against UTEP is the only negative rushing play of the season.

Through two games in 2023, Nebraska had 22 carries go for 0 or no yards. This year, only five carries have been stopped for no gain or worse, with four coming from guys in the second unit. The offense is helping its young quarterback by avoiding negative plays and keeping the entire playbook available.

2024 Nebraska Rushing States. Carry distribution: Min -5 yards, max 35 yards, vertical lines at 0 and 10 yards.
2024 Nebraska Rushing States. Carry distribution: Min -5 yards, max 35 yards, vertical lines at 0 and 10 yards. /

Note: The play-by-play source I used didn’t count Raiola as the rusher on the sack; instead, I counted a Jacory Barney run that was called back as -3 yards

A win will likely set up a top-25 matchup next Friday night for the 400th consecutive sellout. Northern Iowa is a good football team and should not be overlooked. If the Huskers continue to play like they have in the first two games, they should cruise to an easy win.

For me, just winning this game isn’t enough. The Huskers are starting to develop expectations as a team that could finish in the top five of the Big Ten. If Nebraska football is to compete at this level, it needs to get to conference play as healthy and fresh as possible. I expect another easy Huskers win and the starters getting some significant extra rest in the second half before a short week.

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Eric Hess
ERIC HESS