Playoff Reflections after Week 6 + Remaining Undefeated Teams

Chaos reigns! Will Nebraska thrive in chaos?

Nebraska running back Dante Dowdell rushes for an 11-yard gain against Rutgers. / Kenny Larabee, KLIN

Chaos theory is a mathematical and scientific field that studies the patterns and laws of dynamical systems that are sensitive to initial conditions. It explains how small occurrences can significantly affect the outcome of seemingly unrelated events. ~from Google AI Overview of “chaos theory”

“Chaos theory” is built around the idea that seemingly random events still follow identifiable patterns, and things that at first seem unconnected, will often be shown later to have had an indirect causative effect, often by a chain of events. Why am I talking about all of this? Because all of the unpredicted chaos of Week 6’s upsets in the SEC indirectly are helping to clear the way for Nebraska (and/or other Big Ten teams) to be in position to secure a playoff spot: Chaos in the SEC (and elsewhere) clears the way for other teams to get into the playoffs. Seven (!) of the 19 undefeated teams entering Week 6 lost for the first time: #1 Alabama, #4 Tennessee, #9 Missouri, #25 UNLV, Duke, James Madison, and Rutgers, Seven of the top 25 teams were defeated: #10 Michigan, #11 USC, and #22 Louisvillle, in addition to the four no-longer-undefeated ranked teams above. Those include 5 of the top 11; including 2 of the top 4. Vanderbilt beat freakin’ #1 Alabama, for cryin’ out loud!!!

How does all of this affect Nebraska’s playoff chances? Chaos breaks up many of the logjams at the top. The higher that Nebraska is rated, the more likely that they will be in position to receive an invitation to the playoffs, but it is difficult to move up in the polls when/if the teams at the top keep winning. There will always be attrition due to one top team playing another; someone has to lose. But like last week’s Georgia-Alabama game, the loser often doesn’t fall very far if the team that beat them is perceived as elite. While Nebraska went into the weekend unranked, but listed at the AP equivalent of #29, unexpected losses by #22 Louisville, #25 UNLV, and Arizona (who was the equivalent of # 27) moves the Huskers up to just outside the top 25 at the equivalent of #27. If Nebraska can beat Indiana, not only will they be ranked, but the losses by so many other teams that were slightly higher rated than Nebraska will now make it possible for Nebraska to be within striking distance of jumping many of them in the near future when/if the Huskers continue to win. As long as Nebraska keeps winning, the path is there to rocket up the polls.

For the second week in a row, the biggest upset was so unexpected that I hadn’t even bothered to list it as a relevant game to watch in my preview. Let’s look at it first….

35 - #1 Alabama
40 – Vanderbilt
No upset was as big as that of David the Commodore slaying Goliath the Crimson Giant. You can read about the details of this game in an infinite number of places, but this space is focused on how it affects the overall playoff picture. As a general rule for the sake of Nebraska’s playoff chances, it doesn’t matter who beats the top SEC teams as long as the end result is that as few as possible finish with <3 losses. Alabama is one of those few teams that has built up credibility and has the strength of schedule to make the playoffs even with 2 regular season losses. For proof, they only dropped to #7 in this week’s AP poll, and they’ll stay there until they lose again. How likely is it that they’ll lose 2 more? It could happen, but it’s not likely. They have a lot of good teams left on their schedule—South Carolina, Tennessee, Missouri, LSU, Oklahoma, and Auburn—but none of those seem like definite losses, so they’d have to lose another upset or two to have it knock them out of the playoffs. Unless ‘Bama loses 2 more, this upset likely had no effect on Nebraska’s chances to make the playoffs.

Now let’s look at the Huskers’ game….

7 - Rutgers
14 – Nebraska
Nebraska took care of business against Rutgers. It wasn’t a flashy win, but it still counts. There will be fans who will want to say now that Rutgers wasn’t really that good, but Rutgers seems like a team that will win at least 8 games, and probably more than that if they can stay healthy. It’s also worth a lot mentally that Nebraska won a 1-score game. This win will look more impressive if Rutgers does continue to win games because they will be ranked, if they do.

Here are the other games that were picked as ones to watch….

10 - #9 Missouri
41 - #25 Texas A&M
After Missouri struggled to beat Boston College and Vanderbilt, it wasn’t hard to predict that A&M’s superior athletes would pose a greater problem for the Tigers. Not many expected A&M to take Mizzou into the bathroom stall and give ‘em a swirlie on live TV. The national media—and especially the various iterations of Paul Finebaum that secrete out of the SEC sphere of college football media—will chalk this woodshed visit up to the Aggies’ improvement over the course of the first half of the season, but don’t be fooled: Notre Dame would likely still beat A&M on a neutral field. Missouri just doesn’t have very good line play in the trenches, and A&M has better athletes across the board (with the exception of Luther Burden, who is elite). Both A&M and Missouri—now ranked #15 and #21, respectively—will lose again. This is good news for Husker fans, as they will remove themselves from the logjam of SEC teams ranked above Nebraska with their next losses.

17 - #10 Michigan
27 – Washington
This is another game that wasn’t difficult to see coming as far as an upset. Washington was favored to win at home, so it doesn’t even qualify as an upset. Michigan still has to play Oregon and Ohio State, in addition to other Big Ten teams that can take them down. The Wolverines are effectively finished as a playoff contender for this year. This obviously helped Nebraska’s playoff chances since we don’t play Michigan this year, and Washington already has 2 losses.

27 - #12 Ole Miss
3 - South Carolina
This is one of the few minor potential upsets that did NOT come into being on Saturday. Ole Miss looked really good, though they will lose more games since they have yet to play LSU, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Georgia. Also, they have indisputably proven that it is in fact NOT ‘Cocktober.

14 - #4 Tennessee
19 - Arkansas
Tennessee looked very vulnerable, and Arkansas took advantage of it. Maybe Tennessee should have been listed as a Tier 1 team last week because the loss only dropped them from #4 to #8 in this week’s poll, which means that they could likely lose another game and still make the playoffs.

39 - #8 Miami
38 – Cal
This was a very near-miss as far as major upsets. The ‘Canes needed something close to a miracle (and more help from the refs) to come back late from a 25-point deficit. Miami is a sleep-walking upset, waiting to occur.

7 – Iowa
35 - #3 Ohio State
The Buckeyes easily handled the Hawkeyes.

13 - Auburn
31 - #5 Georgia
This wouldn’t have seemed as nearly as much of an upset as Vandy beating Alabama, and it was close for the first half, but then the Bulldogs took care of business.

29 - #15 Clemson
13 - Florida State
“Florida State has fallen apart.” I said that last week in describing this matchup, and I should have just left it at that. Clemson does look much improved though.

Nebraska’s Other Opponents in Action (Listed in BOLD)

Sam Houston State (5-1) defeated UTEP (0-5)
Colorado (4-1) and Illinois (4-1) had byes.
South Dakota State (4-1) beat Northern Iowa (2-3)
Purdue (1-4) was crushed by Wisconsin (3-2)
#23 Indiana (5-0) beat Northwestern (2-3)
UCLA (1-4) hung with #7 Penn State (5-0) in the first half but lost 27-11.
#11 USC (3-2) lost to Minnesota (3-3), 24-17.

Group of 5 Teams to Watch

44 - Syracuse (4-1)
41 - #25 UNLV (4-1)
I jinxed UNLV, who lost to Syracuse, though Syracuse is looking like a pretty decent team.

Of the remaining unbeaten G5 teams

Army (5-0) beat Tulsa (2-4), and Navy (5-0) beat Air Force (1-4), but James Madison (4-1) lost for the first time to Louisiana-Monroe (4-1). Liberty’s game against Florida International was moved to Tuesday night, so it’s yet to be played.

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