Predicting the College Football Playoffs: Key Week 2 Matchups to Watch

The games this weekend that are most likely to shape the postseason

Texas Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers receives a snap during the game against Colorado State at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin Saturday, Aug. 31, 2024. / Aaron E. Martinez/American-Statesman / USA TODAY NETWORK

Nebraska had elite offensive line play throughout the '80s and '90s, but the Huskers weren’t able to win a national championship until they 1) had an elite quarterback behind them, and 2) an equally elite defensive line to shut down the opposing offenses. Nebraska has the defensive line, right now, and the potential is there for Dylan Raiola to be an elite quarterback, but the offensive line is still somewhere in the B+ to C range, depending on how things go with injuries.

In conferences where there are lots of playoff-caliber teams on the schedule, it is likely to be the teams with the best linemen on both sides and a healthy, elite quarterback that will consistently win the close games. Will Nebraska be there at the end? We took a huge first step toward finding out on Saturday in Lincoln.

Colorado @ Nebraska

Nobody outside of Colorado and Nebraska would list this game as a key game toward determining the playoffs, but this is a Nebraska fan page, so we start where the heart is. Nebraska and Colorado both have talented QBs, but Shedeur Sanders has proven himself with more experience, and he had to suffer through inferior pass protection last year on his way to getting sacked a mind-boggling 52 times last season. Keep in mind that that isn’t even including all the other times he got hit late as he released the ball or made enough yards moving forward that it technically wasn’t a sack. His O-line didn’t look significantly better against FCS powerhouse North Dakota State in week 1. Nebraska’s D-line is a significant upgrade over NDSU’s, rated in the preseason as the 5th best in the country. Can Sanders make up for what is lacking in protection?

On the other side of the ball, Colorado did bring in some upgrades along their D-line from last year, but they’re much more focused on pass rushing than stopping the run. Is Nebraska’s offensive line good enough to run the ball at Colorado and force their will on them. The best way to take the spotlight off of an elite defensive back like Travis Hunter is to run the ball successfully. If Nebraska can run the ball, it will also take pressure off of Raiola, who will be able to mix passes in and out when wanted, rather than when needed.

Texas @ Michigan

A great offensive line can make a decent quarterback look great, and a great QB can make a decent offensive line look better: which is more important? Texas has the luxury of having both. Tune in to Fox Sports’ Big Noon Kickoff game in Ann Arbor on Saturday as Quinn Ewers of Texas – who looks like the best quarterback in college football – goes against Michigan’s elite defense. Michigan won the Joe Moore Award for the best offensive line in college football in 2021 and 2022, yet they were not even one of the finalists for the award last year, though they still managed to look very dominant on their way to winning the national championship. Phil Steele’s preseason rankings of the best offensive lines in the country don’t even have Michigan listed in the top 25, which seems either disrespectful or lacking in faith in Michigan’s ability to develop quality O-linemen. Meanwhile, Steele has Texas’ O-line rated as the second best in the country, trailing only Georgia’s.

Michigan’s D-line is listed by Steele as the 4th best in the country, and Texas’ is listed at #18. While Texas has what should be a solid run defense, Michigan should be able to force Texas to be a one-dimensional passing team as Texas has a lot of holes in their Running Back room.

This game is significant for playoff implications at a number of levels besides the obvious of determining whether Michigan or Texas gets it first loss. Texas is expected to win this game on the road, and Texas is thought to be the 2nd best team in the SEC. Michigan, meanwhile, is expected to have a drop-off from last year’s talent-loaded team, ranked in the preseason as the 4th best team in the Big Ten. A Michigan win now could directly point to an additional Big Ten team getting an at-large bid over a similarly ranked SEC team. A big Texas win could flip that around.

Nebraska fans should be rooting for Michigan.

Tennessee @ North Carolina State

This is a top-ten SEC team visiting a ranked ACC team. If the ACC wants to get more than 1 team in the playoffs, they need to win some games like this. Tennessee got some breaks in their SEC scheduling, so winning this game puts them in very good shape for a playoff run.

Arkansas @ Oklahoma State

Going by the same metrics above — offensive line + defensive line + quarterback — Oklahoma State trails only Utah in the Big 12 for having the top ranked line play. They could end up winning the Big 12, but if they don’t, they will likely need this win over Arkansas to have a shot at an at-large berth.

Iowa State @ Iowa

Big 12 versus Big Ten. Both teams return lots of starters. The depth of the Big Ten could show here as Iowa is picked to finish around 5th to 6th in the conference with very long odds at actually winning the B1G; meanwhile, Iowa State is expected to finish around 3rd or 4th in the Big 12 with an outside shot at winning it, yet Iowa is expected to win this game.

This is a game that can end up minimizing berths for Big 12 teams in the playoffs if Iowa wins, which means more potential room for another Big Ten team. It’s painful to say, so I won’t say it, but … we know who we should be rooting for.

Kansas @ Illinois

Kansas is ranked and favored to win, but Illinois should pose some matchup problems for them on both sides of the ball. An Illinois in would, again, help eliminate a potential Big 12 rival for an at-large playoff spot.

Other Cross-conference Matchups of Interest

Kansas State @ Tulane
Duke@Northwestern
Houston @ Oklahoma
Utah State @ USC
Texas Tech @ Washington State

G5 Teams that Could Make a Splash

Boise State @ Oregon
Appalachian State @ Clemson
UTSA @ Texas State

Projecting the Playoffs*

Based on the results of Week 0 and Week 1 and looking ahead at strength of schedule, here are my current predictions for where things will end up for the final playoff matchups (projected final records and conference championships are in parentheses)

1. Ohio State (13-0 Big Ten champ)
2. Georgia (12-1 SEC champ)
3. Miami (12-1 ACC champ)
4. Oklahoma State (12-1 Big 12 champ)
5. Notre Dame (12-0)
6. Oregon (11-1)
7. Ole Miss (10-2)
8. Penn State (11-2 - loses Big Ten championship game)
9. Alabama (10-2)
10. Utah (11-2 - loses Big 12 championship game)
11. Missouri (11-2 - loses SEC championship game)
12. Appalachian State (Sun Belt champ)

Teams to watch: Texas, Michigan, Iowa, LSU, Clemson, Louisville, Kansas State, Kansas, Boise State, Memphis, Texas State, Nebraska

*This list will be updated each week as the season evolves.

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