Predicting the College Football Playoffs: Key Week 4 Matchups to Watch

Here are the games that should matter most to Nebraska this week

Sep 14, 2024; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini quarterback Luke Altmyer (9) drops back to pass against the Central Michigan Chippewas during the first half at Memorial Stadium. Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images / Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

#24 Illinois (3-0) @ #22 Nebraska (3-0) [Friday night] – As long as Nebraska keeps winning, the other games don’t matter nearly as much. Illinois is undefeated and newly ranked. Nebraska’s win last year in Champagne is the only time that Illinois has lost to Nebraska since Bret Bielema took over as head coach before the 2021 season. Illinois will be the best team that Nebraska has played thus far. A Nebraska victory by any means or any score will likely impress the voters.

Here are the games being played by Nebraska’s future opponents:

Purdue (1-1) @ Oregon State (2-1) – Purdue looked hapless against Notre Dame, and Oregon State was beaten badly by Oregon.

Rutgers (2-0) @ Virginia Tech (2-1) – Rutgers will receive votes and likely would be on the verge of being ranked if they can beat the Hokies on the road.

Charlotte (1-2) @ Indiana (3-0) – If you count those receiving votes in the AP poll but weren’t ranked, Indiana is currently sitting at #34; keep winning, and they’ll be ranked before the Nebraska game.

Marshall (1-1) @ #3 Ohio State (2-0) – If Ohio State continues to win they will likely be ranked no lower than #2 when they host Nebraska in October.

UCLA (1-1) @ #16 LSU (2-1) – A Bruins win would be a monumental upset at this point as UCLA looked very humble against Indiana.

#11 USC (2-0) @ #18 Michigan (2-1) – When USC travels to Michigan this weekend they kick off a 7-game stretch over 7 weeks where they will crisscross the country every other week with home games sandwiched in-between. If USC wins all 7, they will likely be ranked in the top 5 when Nebraska comes to play them on November 16.

Wisconsin (2-1) bye

Iowa (2-1) @ Minnesota (2-1) – Iowa is still receiving votes in the AP poll, effectively sitting at #33 if the listings went that far. Minnesota has looked much improved since they started the year stumbling against North Carolina.

Here are the games being played by Nebraska’s past opponents:

UTEP (0-3) @ Colorado State (1-2) – UTEP will be looking for their first victory against a Rams team that just got smoked by Colorado.

Baylor (2-1) @ Colorado (2-1) -- Colorado likely needs to win this game to have a realistic chance at being bowl eligible and avoiding another losing season.

Northern Iowa (2-1) @ Hawai’i (1-2) – Northern Iowa should pose a difficult matchup problem for Hawai’i; don’t be surprised if the Panthers pull off the upset.

Big Ten teams to watch

Michigan State (3-0) @ Boston College (2-1) – Boston College beat Florida State and barely lost to Missouri, so a Spartan victory in Boston would enhance the image of the Big Ten conference. Boston College is currently the equivalent of being ranked #30, so a Spartan victory would likely push them very close to being ranked.

SEC teams to watch

#6 Tennessee (3-0) @ #15 Oklahoma (3-0) – This is the biggest game of the week in all of college football as far as rankings, and it is also Oklahoma’s debut in the SEC. Both teams boast excellent defenses and elite young quarterbacks.

Big 12 teams to watch

#12 Utah (3-0) @ #14 Oklahoma State (3-0) – The winner of this game will have the inside track to qualify for the conference championship game. The teams resemble one another with good defenses, strong running games, and solid line play. The health of Utah QB Cam Rising could likely be the difference as he missed the Utah State game due to a hand injury suffered the previous week against Baylor. Along with #13 Kansas State, these appear to be the best teams in the Big 12 thus far. The losing team would likely have to win the conference to have any hope of making the playoffs because neither is otherwise likely to get an invitation with 2 losses.

#13 Kansas State (3-0) @ BYU (3-0) – This is a battle of undefeated teams. Kansas State was expected to battle for the Big 12 championship, but BYU is a bit of a surprise. As is likely true for all of the Big 12’s top teams, the losing team would likely have to win the conference to have any hope of making the playoffs because neither is otherwise likely to get an invitation with 2 losses.

Arizona State (3-0) @ Texas Tech (2-1) – The Sun Devils have been a surprise team in the Big 12 to be undefeated at this point. Same as was said above about every other Big 12 team: they have to win now or else win the conference championship to have a shot at making the playoffs.

ACC teams to watch

James Madison (2-0) @ North Carolina (3-0) – James Madison is a strong candidate for the auto-bid for the 5th highest ranking conference champion, and North Carolina is still undefeated. Neither team is ranked yet, but UNC is receiving some votes. The winner of this game will likely be on the bubble of being in the top 25.

Georgia Tech (3-1) @ #19 Louisville (2-0) – Louisville could be one of the best of the ACC, but we don’t really know much yet because this is their first test.

#8 Miami (3-0) @ South Florida (2-1) – Miami has looked unstoppable, and South Florida’s only loss was to Alabama in Tuscaloosa, and that was a close game until late.

Cal (3-0) @ Florida State (0-3) – Anyone predict that these two teams would have these records at this point in the season? Can Cal stay undefeated by piling more misery on the Seminoles? Cal is receiving votes in the AP poll, where they currently sit as what would be the #35 team.

G5 teams to watch

San Jose State (3-0) @ Washington State (3-0) – Two undefeateds who can’t afford a loss, so this is effectively an elimination game. Washington State is getting votes in the AP poll to effectively make them currently ranked #31. The winner of this game will likely move up to be ranked somewhere between #25 and #30 in next week’s poll.

Memphis (3-0) @ Navy (2-0) – Memphis just took down Florida State so they have the resume for an invitation, but neither team can afford to lose a game. Memphis is currently the team receiving the most AP votes that is NOT ranked in the top 25, so they are effectively ranked #26, right now.

Buffalo (2-1) @ #23 Northern Illinois (3-0) -- This is the Huskies’ first game since taking down Notre Dame.

East Carolina (2-1) @ Liberty (3-0) – This is Liberty’s toughest game so far. They are receiving votes in the AP poll, which effectively ranks them as the #36 team in the country.

Toledo (3-0) @ Western Kentucky (2-1) – Toledo just handily defeated Mississippi State, and Western Kentucky’s only loss is to Alabama. Toledo is receiving votes in the AP poll, where they are effectively ranked as the #37 team.

With the new 12-team playoff system in place, more teams will have more chances to make the playoffs, and their opportunities will last much longer into the season. This series of articles is intended to continue all season with three subjects per week: reflections on the past week’s most important games; projecting who is most likely to be included in the playoffs, while also listing out all of the teams still in contention for the at-large spots; and a summary of the games to anticipate for the coming week. All are written from the perspective of a Nebraska fan who wants a summary of what needs to happen for the Huskers to make the playoffs.

MORE: Predicting the College Football Playoffs: Projecting the Playoffs after Week 3

MORE: Predicting the College Football Playoffs: Reflections on Week 3

MORE: Predicting the College Football Playoffs: Projecting the Playoffs after Week 2

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