Predicting the College Football Playoffs: Projecting the Playoffs after Week 2

Where does Nebraska currently stand in the playoff picture?

Nebraska fans let red balloons loose after the first touchdown of the game against Colorado. / Kenny Larabee, KLIN

What should a poll represent? Should it be a snapshot of what each team has accomplished so
far, or should it be a prediction of where teams will eventually finish? Should it be some mix of
both? For example, Ohio State likely has one of the 2 or 3 most talented rosters in all of college
football based on the likelihood of current players being drafted, but thus far they have beat up
on Akron and Western Michigan, and this week they will play Marshall. A 3-0 Ohio State
probably doesn’t deserve more credit for its achievements than a 3-0 Vanderbilt, who at least
beat a well-regarded Power 4 team (Virginia Tech) in Week 1. On the other hand, nobody would
pick Vanderbilt to beat Ohio State in a head-to-head matchup? So where should more weight be
given?

It's the same dilemma for projecting who will make it into this year’s playoffs. If the teams’
current rankings are used, 6 of the 12 teams will be from the SEC. Logic and experience says
that that will likely not happen because a) those teams play each other, and someone will have
to lose those games; b) upsets happen, and some of those teams will lose to unranked (or lowly
ranked) teams; and c) politics matter, so it’s highly unlikely that one conference would be
allowed to so thoroughly dominate the seeding for the playoffs as it would likely turn off much of
the rest of the country.

This projection is looking at where I expect the teams to finish at the end of the season, which
means a fantastic 3-loss team who lost to 3 playoff teams will still likely not make the playoffs.
Based on the results of Weeks 0, 1, and 2, and looking ahead at strength of remaining
schedule, below is my list* of current predictions for where things will end up for the final playoff
matchups. (Projected final records and conference championships are in parentheses.) It is
semi-educated guestimating, but it’s fun, and you should play along with your own predictions.
Here are mine:

Projected Final Rankings for College Football Playoffs

1. Ohio State (13-0 Big Ten champ)

2. Georgia (12-1 SEC champ)

3. Miami (12-1 ACC champ)

4. Oklahoma State (12-1 Big 12 champ)

5. Ole Miss (11-1)

6. Oregon (11-1)

7. Alabama (11-1)

8. Texas (11-2 - loses SEC championship game)

9. Penn State (11-2 - loses Big Ten championship game)

10 Utah (11-2 - loses Big 12 championship game)

11. Notre Dame (11-1)

12. Texas State (Sun Belt champ)

Teams on the bubble for at-large bids: Missouri, Tennessee, Clemson, Louisville, USC, Kansas
State, Nebraska, Iowa State, Arizona, Oklahoma

Teams on the bubble for 5 th highest ranked conference champion: Northern Illinois, Boise State,
Washington State, Memphis, Appalachian State, Liberty, Oregon State

Breaking Down Ranked Teams into Tiers

If we were to look at each team and project how many losses a team could sustain and still be
reasonably expected to make the playoffs (or at least be on the bubble), below is how I broke
down the Power 4 conferences to project the playoff teams. Winning a conference
championship game would override their number of losses, and losing in a conference
championship game might not count the same as a loss in the regular season.

Tier 1 (Could lose 2 more games and still reasonably expect to make the playoffs)

SEC
Georgia
Texas
Alabama

Big Ten
Ohio State

There will likely be a conference champion with 2 losses that gets an automatic bid to the
playoffs, and there could certainly be other teams that move up and stay there because of other
teams losing, but these four teams are the only four, right now, that seem likely to still be playoff
teams with two losses even if they are NOT conference champs. The losses would have to be
“respectable losses,” i.e. “close losses to (highly) ranked teams.” The reasons why these teams
are in this position is because 1) they started out in pole position by already being highly ranked;
2) they had already earned a lot of credibility due to their programs’ success last year and/or in other recent years; 3) they play in the two most respected conferences; and 4) they have quite
difficult schedules that allow them to still have quality wins, even if they lose 2 of those games.

Tier 2 (Could lose 1 more game and still reasonably expect to make the playoffs)

SEC
Ole Miss
Missouri
Tennessee
Oklahoma
South Carolina
Vanderbilt

Big Ten
Penn State
Oregon
USC
Nebraska
Illinois
Washington
Wisconsin
Rutgers
Michigan State
Indiana
Purdue

ACC
Miami
Louisville
Boston College
Syracuse
Virginia
Duke
North Carolina
Cal
Pitt

Big 12
Utah
Oklahoma State
Kansas State
Arizona
Iowa State
UCF
BYU
Arizona State
TCU

Pac 12
Washington State
Oregon State

The teams are listed by conference, and then are listed by order of how they are currently
ranked in AP poll voting, though some of the last listed teams are undefeated after Week 2 but
not receiving any votes. This list does not include Group of 5 teams as it is highly unlikely that a
Group of 5 team will qualify for the playoffs without winning its conference AND being ranked
higher than other G5 conference champions. Unless they end up being that team, every week is
an elimination round for the Group of 5 programs.

I am including the remaining 2 members of the Pac 12 because they are technically still
considered a conference. Since they were a Power 5 conference until this past off-season, the
two teams that remain will likely still garner more support and credibility with the media than
similar programs playing in the G5 conferences. It’s also quite likely that if either team finishes
with only one loss, they will be the 5th highest ranked conference champion, or at least close
enough to win the sympathy of voters. Both play in-state rivals this week that represent potential
wins that would vault them into the AP rankings. Both play enough other P4 teams—some of
whom might also be ranked when they play—that their strength of schedule would garner
interest and be considered respectable. When Oregon State and Washington State play each
other on November 23, the winner will be the conference champion. It’s possible that one of
them could make the playoffs without winning that game, but it would be very implausible and
require a lot of outside help for things to line up. However, if the team that wins that game would
make it through the rest of the year with only 1 loss—and especially if it’s a respectable
loss—that team will be in excellent position to be the 5 th ranked conference champion that
receives an auto-bid.

*This list will be updated each week as the season evolves. A Tier 3 will be added as soon as the number of undefeated and 1-loss teams dwindles down far enough to make it worthwhile. For those who want to understand a little more about the politics that will be going on behind the scenes as the playoff committee meets to rank the teams during the season and eventually choose who is invited into the 12-team playoff, this article explains several things that will likely affect who gets in.

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