Predicting the College Football Playoffs: Reflections on Week 3

Who helped their own cause, and who took a step backwards?

Henrich Haarberg (10) replaced Raiola at quarterback for the final eight minutes of the game. / Amarillo Mullen

This article is a weekly look at where things stand in the playoff picture when looking at it from a Nebraska perspective, so the most relevant game was …

Nebraska handled Northern Iowa.
Northern Iowa is a solid FCS team. They had more offensive success against Nebraska than most fans, coaches, or players would have wanted to see, but that was more a tribute to a well-coached team executing a good game plan than it was a sign of something inherently lacking in Nebraska’s defense. It was an excellent warm-up game for Illinois, who will likely approach their game plan against Nebraska on Friday in a very similar manner to what UNI did.

Nebraska’s future opponents did fairly well.
Illinois handled Central Michigan, though it was closer in the first half than what was anticipated. When the rankings come out, Illinois should be ranked somewhere in the low 20s, which sets up a top 25 showdown with Nebraska in Lincoln in primetime on Friday night, September 20.

Indiana crushed UCLA in Pasadena. UCLA looked inept with lots of unforced errors, but Indiana did capitalize to make the most of them. Indiana should be getting votes in the polls this week and will likely be just outside of the top 25, if they don’t yet get enough votes to be ranked in the polls. They have very winnable games coming up, so there’s a good chance that they will be ranked when Nebraska plays them in Bloomington on October 19.

Purdue was pounded by Notre Dame. It’s looking like it could be a long year for the Boilermakers.

Wisconsin looked lost against #4 Alabama after their starting quarterback (Tyler Van Dyke) went down with a knee injury. There wasn’t a lot more to be taken from the game.

Iowa struggled early against Troy, but came back to win what looked like a typical Iowa football game with good defense, solid special teams, a good running game, and mediocre quarterback play.

(Rutgers, Ohio State, and USC did not play.)

Nebraska’s past opponents could contribute.
UTEP lost to Liberty, 28-10. It’s going to be a long year for the Miners.

Colorado pounded Colorado State in Fort Collins. While Husker fans likely weren’t cheering for the Buffs, it was an impressive win as Shilo Sanders didn’t play due to surgery on his forearm, and other Colorado players were also nursing bumps and bruises carried forward from the Nebraska game. Colorado still has a decent shot at being bowl eligible, which makes Nebraska’s win over them look more impressive.

The Rest of the Big Ten had a mostly solid week.
Oregon finally looked like the preseason team that was ranked in the top 5 as they crushed Oregon State in Corvalis, which prevented Week 3 from being “The Revenge of the Pac 2. ” Washington State did upset Washington in the Apple Cup though. Washington appears to be a middle-of-the-pack team in the conference this year.

Maryland beat Virginia on the road. Michigan struggled with Arkansas State until they switched quarterbacks. Minnesota, Michigan State, and Northwestern beat up on their overmatched opponents.

The ranked SEC teams won, but mostly in unimpressive fashion.
In the unexpected thriller of the week, #1 Georgia barely escaped Kentucky with a win. Since #2 Texas blew out UTSA, and #4 Alabama routed Wisconsin, the Bulldogs might slide down a spot or two in the polls. #5 Ole Miss manhandled Wake Forest.

 LSU escaped with a win over South Carolina thanks to a missed field goal. The Tigers were ranked #16, which should be about where they stay. #6 Missouri struggled to beat #24 Boston College at home. Missouri didn’t look as good as expected, but Boston College seems to be a solid team. Missouri might slide down a spot or two. Oklahoma beat Tulane at home as expected. Texas A&M added to Florida’s misery by walloping them in Gainesville, which should put the Aggies on the bubble of being ranked again.

Big 12 is keeping things interesting.
#14 Kansas State beat Arizona bad enough that Kansas State will likely move up in the polls, and Arizona will probably drop out. UCF beat TCU in a close game. Arizona State did barely pull out the win on the road against Texas State.

G5 teams mostly took care of business.
UNLV beat Kansas on Friday night. And Memphis deepened Florida State’s despair with a 20-12 loss. With Liberty and Washington State’s victories, all four of these G5 teams will be receiving votes in the AP poll along with #25 Northern Illinois and Boise State, who didn’t play this week.

With the new 12-team playoff system in place, more teams will have more chances to make the playoffs, and their opportunities will last much longer into the season. This series of articles is intended to continue all season with three subjects per week: reflections on the past week; games to anticipate for the coming week; and an overview of how the whole system is coming together and evolving with projections for who will make the playoffs, bubble teams, power rankings, etc.

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