Stukenholtz: Halfway Home, But Toughest Miles Still Ahead

Forecasting Nebraska football’s ceiling as they begin the back half of 2024 season.

Nebraska defenders celebrate after a goal line stand against Rutgers. / Kenny Larabee, KLIN

I just finished a week-long vacation with the family. My sister, who lives in Mesa, Arizona, just had a baby in June, and not only had I not seen my new niece in person yet, but I’d also never even been to Phoenix since my sister moved there over five years ago. 

My wife and I loaded up the van and took our four kids on the road. To Arizona. If you’ve never made that drive, I’m here to tell you it is LONG. (I’ll just share one story – I wore a red Husker baseball cap at the Grand Canyon so of course I got a “Go Huskers!” along the way.)

Now, since you didn’t come here to read about our family vacation, let me just say that the last few miles of the (many) driving days are the toughest. You go from daylight to darkness, you’re tired, the kids are stir crazy, batteries in devices are running low, someone needs to pee (again), and all you want is to reach the hotel for the night.

But as much as I may have wanted to fast forward, I knew that I had to focus on the road to get us all there in one piece. And then get everyone fired up for the next day, too.

While Matt Rhule and Nebraska’s travel accommodations are much nicer than mine, the challenge remains the same: the last few miles are the toughest. And, in college football, the toughest teams typically come out on top. It’s the single biggest reason why the Huskers have been home for the holidays for almost a decade – they couldn’t finish.

Until they show they can.

In their 14-7 victory over Rutgers, Nebraska showed their progress. They proved something to Husker fans, to Rhule, and, most importantly, to themselves. NU has suffered defeat countless times when they’ve had control late in games. The late-flipping win-probability charts were almost comical in the percentage chances the Huskers had to win. 95%? 97%? Haha nope.

After Dylan Raiola was sacked with 2:28 to go and Rutgers called timeout, everyone knew it was down to whether the Blackshirts could stop an opponent from tying or winning the game. 

This time, James Williams called game. He won so quickly on both 3rd and 4th down that Rutgers quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis had no time to find his target. Williams was not a starter at defensive end, but he sure as hell was the closer. He played his role to perfection, including some scout team looks in practice leading up to the game.

The defense is clearly the foundation on which this team was built, and rightly so. They’re one of 39 defenses to have forced at least ten turnovers through six games, one of eight to allow less than 14 points per game, and one of nine teams with 20 or more sacks.

The Blackshirts are the only FBS defense to rank so highly in all three.

Add in the fact that Nebraska is the only FBS defense to not allow a rushing touchdown all season, and it’s clear this this team has a strength to lean on.

How about special teams? Let me put it this way: if you can long snap and you have eligibility, you may want to get in touch with the staff at the Osborne Legacy Complex. 

In all seriousness, punter Brian Buschini has been a bright spot. While he wasn’t perfect through five games, he turned in a career performance in the win over the Scarlet Knights. Despite injuring his back after having the first of two punts blocked, he still threw a perfect 30-yard pass on a fake punt, uncorked a 69-yard marvel of a punt late in the 4th quarter, and was awarded Big Ten Special Teams Player of the Week for his trouble. Oh yeah, he also earned a Blackshirt!

Problem is, if you can’t kick field goals because you can’t consistently deliver the snap, it’ll almost certainly cost the team a win or two down the stretch.

That’s where the offense comes in. Freshman phenom Dylan Raiola has raised their level from liability to above average, especially in the pass game. With 226 yards per game through the air on 67% passing, he is efficient enough to keep defenses honest on the back end. Add in a 9-to-3 TD-to-INT rate, and he’s proven capable of both scoring and preventing critical mistakes. 

The line has been fine. Running backs have had their moments. Pass catchers shined in high leverage moments. But all could improve, including Raiola. He’ll likely have a game-winning-drive opportunity where he can prove he can finish those last miles strong.

Based on what we’ve seen from Nebraska’s three phases in six games, what will the next six hold? I would anticipate continued heavy rotation on defense – especially up front – but a bit less rotation on offense as roles solidify. Growth from the offense, both in individual improvement and tweaks to play calling from self-scouting during the off week, is a must. The schedule demands it. And can special teams simply avoid catastrophe at this point?

* * *

When our family arrived at the Airbnb in Mesa, we knew we’d be there for the next three nights. It was fun, relaxing, and gave my wife and I a chance to recharge the batteries. But vacations, like college football idle weeks, eventually end. Then it’s back to game time. 

Same goes for Matt Rhule. NU now gets to show how they spent their couple of weeks before the season continues against Indiana. You’ve seen the sense of urgency in two 4th down attempts in the first quarter versus Rutgers. There’s also a sense of now or never with this collection of elder statesmen on defense.

There have been inspiring performances like Javin Wright working his way back from blood clots, James Williams’ emergence from nowhere to closing a Big Ten win, and Brian Buschini battling a back injury to bury Rutgers late with a nice 69-yard punt (and a 30-yard fake punt pass!).

The schedule is certainly more difficult down the stretch, including four road trips to teams that are or have been ranked this season. NU hasn’t beaten Wisconsin since Taylor Martinez was the starting QB. Bowl game? Yes, you should feel confident in that floor. 

But what’s this team’s ceiling? 

Preseason, I said 8-4 and thought they’d be closer to 9-3 than 7-5. Nothing I’ve seen so far has moved me from that stance. In fact, with the little peeks behind the curtain in “Chasing 3” YouTube episodes, the messages from Rhule and staff have been the right ones: Go 1-0 this week. Manage your emotions. Don’t change what you do just because people are watching. 

So begins the drive home. It’s just as long as the drive that got you to where you are now, but those final miles really do hit different. 

Time to see just how tough these 2024 Huskers are.

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