Three Reasons why Nebraska Will Win; Three Reasons why Nebraska Will Lose vs. Rutgers

At this point in the season, some teams are jockeying for position in the College Football Playoff. Others, like Nebraska, are hoping to secure that sixth win for bowl eligibility.

When you look at the Big Ten team stats, Nebraska has the third-best offense and the fifth-best defense. Does that sound like a team that is tied for 11th place in the 18-team Big Ten? A 5-4 team that is 2-4 in the conference? A team that is one game ahead of 2-7, 1-5 Rutgers in the standings?

Stats don’t mean everything and some people believe they don’t mean much of anything. Still, it’s telling to see Nebraska’s strong numbers and yet the results aren’t there.

Reasons for the results? We have several.

It’s those fourth-quarter blues, when the Huskers led three games in the fourth quarter and lost every one. It’s the Huskers unable to come up with a stop, a key turnover, a big play when games were on the line.

It’s drive-killing penalties, as new interim offensive coordinator Glenn Thomas said the other day. Nebraska is the 120th most-penalized team in America with 75 infractions that cost it 637 yards.

It’s the Huskers averaging only 13.5 points per game during their season-crushing, four-game losing streak.

The Huskers try again to clinch bowl eligibility on Saturday at Rutgers (11:30 a.m. CT, Big Ten Network) at SHI Stadium in Piscataway, N.J. Both teams are struggling — Nebraska has lost four in a row; Rutgers has lost three in a row.

Nebraska is 5-4, 2-4 in the Big Ten. Rutgers is 2-7, 1-5. FanDuel has installed Nebraska as an 13.5-point favorite.

Each week, we’ll give you three reasons why the Huskers will win and three reasons why the Huskers will lose. We’ll give you reasons even if the odds seem insurmountable either way.

Nebraska is ranked 52 in The Athletic 138; Rutgers is ranked 100. Rutgers is 1-4 at home. Nebraska is 1-2 on the road.

Why Nebraska will win

Rutgers injuries

KJ Duff, a 6-foot-6, 225-pound wide receiver, will miss the game after undergoing ankle surgery. Duff is the No. 18 prospect on ESPN’s Mel Kiper’s Big Board. He has first-round pick written all over him.

He had 45 catches for 774 yards and nine touchdowns in eight games this season. The Rutgers offense will miss him, especially on third downs.

The Scarlet Knights will start injured AJ Surace at quarterback after injured starter Dylan Lonergan was ruled out of the game. Surace is listed as questionable but is expected to start his third consecutive game.

Going against an injured, backup quarterback could be a huge advantage for the Huskers.

Getting the offense to click

Offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen was fired last week and quarterbacks coach/co-offensive coordinator Thomas took over.

Rutgers is last in the Big Ten in overall defense (415.4 yards per game) and rushing defense (186.3 yards per game).

Nebraska interim offensive coordinator Glenn Thomas has taken over for Dana Holgorsen. | Nebraska Athletics

Nebraska should go back to its fruitful roots and run the more frequently. Rutgers presents an opportunity for the offensive line to have their best game of the season. Nebraska ranks fourth in rushing in the Big Ten at 181.7 yards per game — and third overall in total offense at 425 yards per game.

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“I think the run game has been super productive,” Thomas said at a news conference this week. “Coach [Matt] Rhule talked about it yesterday. We were almost five yards a carry [against Illinois].

“So, I think there’s a lot of good things happening in the run game. I think we continued to build on that.”

Nebraska running back Mekhi Nelson is a key player in a running attack that averages 181.7 yards per game. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Coaching change on offense

Sometimes when there’s institutional change, that’s the most ripe time for actual change. Replacing Holgorsen with Thomas gives the Huskers a fresh look, maybe a new approach and a revised game plan.

Everyone wants to impress the new boss.

Nebraska has talent on offense. Quarterback Anthony Colandrea has been inconsistent but when he’s playing well, the Huskers are thriving. Perhaps the game plan will be more structured against Rutgers and less freelance. But sometimes with a mobile quarterback, decisions are made on the fly, often with defenders on your tail.

What the Huskers need is a turnover-free game. Don't throw the ball up and hope for the best. Ball security is Nebraska's best friend.

Why Rutgers will win

Nebraska injuries

Three important players on the Nebraska’s defense will not play due to injuries — linebacker Owen Chambliss, defensive back Andrew Marshall and lineman Anthony Jones Jr.

Chambliss and Marshall are All-Big Ten, All-America quality players whose absence will be felt. This will be an opportunity for the Rutgers offense to exploit the Nebraska defense. Their absence could make the difference — even with a backup quarterback.

Nebraska defensive back Andrew Marshall intercepts a pass intended for Michigan State wide receiver Samson Gash in September. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Huskers' defense is ranked fifth in the Big Ten at 282.4 yards per game. Rutgers’ offense ranks 14th in the conference at 363.1 yards per game. Antwan Raymond is tied for the leading rusher in the Big Ten with 789 yards. Expect the Scarlet Knights to run right at Nebraska, challenging the Huskers to stop them.

Win one for the Coach

Embattled head coach Greg Schiano has his contract extended this week into 2027. Schiano reportedly is mostly beloved by his players.

According to the NJ.com, defensive lineman DJ Allen, who had offers from Nebraska, Michigan, Iowa and Michigan State, said he was “elated” Schiano was coming back and that the coach was the main reason he spent his entire career with the Scarlet Knights.

“I’ve been here for five years, and the reason why I’m here is because of Coach Schiano, so hearing that news, I was elated,” Allen said Wednesday, as reported by NJ.com. “I’m excited to see what we’re capable of doing.”

Rutgers defensive lineman DJ Allen says head coach Greg Schiano is the reason he remained with the Scarlet Knights. — Rutgers defensive lineman DJ Allen says head coach Greg Schiano is the reason he remained with the Scarlet Knights for his career. | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

Expect the Rutgers guys to play their hearts out on Saturday. Beating Nebraska, something the Scarlet Knights haven’t done in seven tries, would be an impressive win.

Rutgers has had it moments

The Scarlet Knights lost one-score games at home to USC and Michigan, with both games up for grabs in the fourth quarter.

Rutgers is capable, just falling short against quality teams. Players always believe they can win. Rutgers players have to look at Nebraska as that possible, overdue moment this season.

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