Trev Alberts’ Nightmare
It is not a secret that Scott Frost enters the 2022 season on the hot seat. While the agreed upon metrics in Frost’s restructured contract aren’t known, it is widely believed that his job status is tied to how well the Huskers do this fall. A regular season record of 6-6 (or better) likely guarantees that Frost keeps his job. If NU goes 4-8 (or worse), the experts agree that Frost will be let go.
But what about a 5-7 season?
I see a 5-7 record as a nightmarish, worst-case scenario for Trev Alberts and the fan base.
Before you assume Frost would be fired at 5-7, let's walk through a hypothetical version of the 2022 season:
- The offensive changes, new faces, and a blown coverage on defense hurt the Huskers in a 7-point loss to Northwestern.
- The Huskers bounce back with blowout wins over North Dakota and Georgia Southern.
- The Oklahoma game is an instant classic worthy of that great rivalry. Unfortunately, it ends in heartbreak as last second Sooner Magic returns to Memorial Stadium.
- After a poor 2021 season, Indiana is Big Ten’s bounce back team. Fresh off of an upset of Cincinnati, Tom Allen’s Hoosiers knock off Nebraska at home to improve to 5-0.
- With tensions high (and Frost’s buyout deeply discounted), the Huskers easily handle Rutgers on a Friday night in New Jersey to even their record at 3-3.
- Casey Thompson, playing at an all-conference level, suffers a season-ending injury early in the Purdue game. A late fumble seals the Boilermaker win.
- Bret Bielema continues to have Nebraska's number as Illinois beats the Huskers for the third straight season.
- Logan Smothers earns the start against Minnesota and leads NU to a two touchdown victory.
- NU travels to #3 Michigan as a 17-point underdog. The Huskers lose on a blown call so egregious that Wolverine fans acknowledge NU was screwed.
- On Senior Day, the Huskers upset the 8th ranked Badgers in front of consecutive sellout #389. The Memorial Stadium goalposts are torn down for the first time since the 1990s.
- The Iowa game, played in bitterly cold conditions, goes to double overtime. The Hawkeyes stop NU on 4th and goal from the 1 to win.
NU ends the regular season at 5-7 overall, and 3-6 in the conference (5th in the West). Nebraska’s Academic Progress Rate is good enough to qualify for a bowl game, but there are no available slots. The Huskers miss a bowl game for the sixth straight season.
For the purposes of this hypothetical, let's assume the special teams were NOT a liability during the season, the majority of critical mistakes were eliminated, and there was no debate over who was running the offense. Off the field, assume the status quo: no new NCAA violations, the players have stayed out of trouble, and Scott Frost does not lose a significant amount of the support has today from the program's power brokers, season ticket holders, and average fans.
If you're Trev Alberts, what do you do?
Frost proponents would talk about how the new staff is starting to gel, but needs more time. There would be countless reminders of what happened to Frank Solich and his revamped staff in 2003. Since each of the (hypothetical) losses was by 13 points or less, the word "close" would be used a lot. Plus, have you seen the 2023 schedule? It is much easier than this year. A breakthrough is coming! And don't forget about the recruiting class. We can't afford to lose those four-star commitments!
The Fire Frost contingent would rely heavily on the facts: 20-36 in five seasons. Zero bowl games. No three game winning streaks. They'll cite research that no coach has ever made a bowl game after five straight losing seasons. And the only thing Nebraska was "close" to in 2021 was Frost getting fired.
If you're Trev Alberts, what do you do?
The Frost fanatics would ask "who are you going to get?" The Fire Frost crowd would respond "anybody". Both sides would threaten to cancel their season tickets and denounce their fandom if they don't get their way. A prominent local columnist would write that it is time to move on. A different writer would make a impassioned plea to keep the homegrown hero.
If you're Trev Alberts, what do you do?
No matter what he chooses, the fan base will be divided, with the decision destined to be rehashed for the next 25 years.
Seriously - if you're Trev Alberts, what do you do?
I think Frost would come back for 2023. While this hypothetical is admittedly far-fetched, I believe the following with all of my heart: At the end of the day, Scott Frost's popularity - with the big money boosters, average fans, and power brokers loyal to Tom Osborne - would be the difference maker in getting him a sixth season.
When Alberts chose to bring Frost back for 2022, it told me that Trev's decision making is about more than wins and losses. The decision was about his vision for the football program - and the athletic department as a whole. If Frost fit that vision at 3-9, why wouldn't he still fit that vision at 5-7, especially if Frost has demonstrated growth and still has the backing of the majority of fans?
You don't have to agree with it - or like it - but I see so many people who very deeply invested in the idea of Nebraska being led by a "Nebraska guy". Throughout the losses, struggles, and controversies of the last four seasons, the majority of fans have always – passionately and vocally – had Scott Frost’s back. To these folks, Frost is “one of us”: a Nebraska kid, National Champion quarterback, and prodigal son who is the most qualified person to lead the Nebraska Cornhuskers back to glory.
But if Frost loses the support of these groups during the season, all bets are off.
What would Trev Alberts do?
I hope we don't have to find out.