Week 6 Matchups to Watch + Playoff Tiers & Projections

Where does Nebraska currently stand in the playoff picture, and who should we root for?

Nebraska defensive lineman Ty Robinson sacks Purdue quarterback Hudson Card. / Nebraska Athletics

This week is an excellent example of a week where there are very few top matchups, but there are a lot of games that could/would/should impact the Huskers’ chances of making the playoffs. Here are the games of the week that are most likely to impact Nebraska’s postseason opportunities….

Rutgers (4-0)
Nebraska (4-1)
3:00 CDT on FS1

The Associated Press writers used to be accused of having an East Coast bias in how they voted for teams from the eastern U.S. versus the western U.S. The fact that Rutgers is undefeated, yet still only receiving a grand total of 7 votes would indicate that somehow the state of New Jersey lies outside of the “East Coast bias.” Nebraska would benefit from Rutgers being ranked, win or lose. Alas, ‘tis not to be. However, it is likely that whoever wins this game will be ranked in next week’s poll as Nebraska is currently sitting at the equivalent of #28 This will be a tough matchup for both teams. Rutgers will try to pound Nebraska’s defense into submission with Kyle Monangai, who is one of the best running backs in the country. Nebraska’s defense will probably stand up reasonably well early on, but if the Nebraska offense doesn’t sustain drives, and/or if the Huskers aren’t able to rotate enough defensive linemen to keep them fresh, Rutgers could take over late in the game. On the other hand, Rutgers will have its hands full with Nebraska’s big-plays on offense. If Nebraska can score enough, Rutgers won’t have the luxury of grinding it out on the ground.

#9 Missouri (4-0)
#25 Texas A&M (4-1)
11:00 CDT, ABC/ESPN+

Missouri struggled to beat Boston College then barely beat Vanderbilt in overtime, while the Aggies have won 4 straight after dropping their first game to Notre Dame. For an SEC team, Missouri has a relatively weak schedule, so it would be better for Nebraska if A&M would win this game as it would make it much more likely that both teams will finish with multiple losses.

#10 Michigan (4-1)
Washington (3-2)
6:30 CDT, NBC/Peacock

The Huskies are favored to win by 2 at home. It would help Nebraska in two ways if the Wolverines were to lose again. First, it would help in conference rankings, and second, it would set up Michigan to be out of the running for the playoffs when/if they also lose to Ohio State.

#12 Ole Miss (4-1)
South Carolina (3-1)
2:30 CDT, ESPN

While it was a shock that Ole Miss lost at home to Kentucky last week, playing at South Carolina is always difficult, and South Carolina pummeled Kentucky earlier in the year. South Carolina has the tougher schedule going forward, so it would probably be better for Nebraska if Ole Miss loses now.

Huge Potential Upsets

#8 Miami (5-0) @ Cal (3-1), Friday night, 9:30 CDT, Fox Cal is a long shot, but their only loss was to Florida State who had to come from behind later to squeak past. Miami also had a close call last week against Virginia Tech.

#3 Ohio State (4-0) @ Iowa (3-1), 2:30 CDT, CBS/Paramount+ Ohio State should handle Iowa fairly easily, but … the same was said in 2017 when Iowa upset them. An Iowa upset would most likely be bad for Nebraska, unless Nebraska also defeats Ohio State and Iowa later in the season.

#4 Tennessee (4-0) @ Arkansas (3-2), 6:30 CDT, ABC/ESPN+ An upset is unlikely, but Arkansas’ coach is on the hot seat, and stranger things have happened. Almost every upset of a top SEC team would help Nebraska’s playoff chances.

Auburn (2-3) @ Georgia (3-1), 2:30 CDT, ABC/ESPN+ Another unlikely upset, but, again, the Auburn coach is on the hot seat.

#15 Clemson (3-1) @ Florida State (1-4), 6:00 CDT, ESPN At the start of the season, most people assumed that this would be the battle of the two best teams in the ACC. Instead, Florida State has fallen apart while Clemson lost early to Georgia before looking like a completely new team on offense ever since. Clemson and Miami are now the favorites to play in the ACC championship, but the Seminoles still have loads of talent on their roster, if only they’re ever able to put together a game where they play like it. Could this be the week? I wouldn’t bet on it.

Nebraska’s Other Opponents in Action (Listed in BOLD)

Sam Houston State (5-1) defeated UTEP (0-5), (Thursday)
#20 Kansas State (4-1) @ Colorado (4-1)
South Dakota State (3-1) @ Northern Iowa (2-2)
Illinois (4-1) BYE
Purdue (1-3) @ Wisconsin (2-2)
#23 Indiana (4-0) @ Northwestern (2-2)
UCLA (1-3) @ #7 Penn State (4-0)
#11 USC (3-1) @ Minnesota (2-3)

Group of 5 Teams to Watch

#25 UNLV and #21 Boise State seem to be on a collision course in the Mountain West Conference with the winner to decide who will most likely be the 5th conference champion to get an automatic invitation to the playoffs. Each has played a challenging enough non-conference schedule to gather enough AP votes to currently be ranked, and both will likely be favored in all of their remaining games, except for when they play each other on October 25, and potentially play again in the conference championship game. UNLV is undefeated, and Boise State’s only loss was a narrow one to Oregon on the road. Boise State has this week off, but here’s who the UNLV matchup, which should be a good one:

Syracuse (3-1)
#25 UNLV (4-0)
Friday, 8:00, FS1

Beyond those two, there are still 4 other G5 teams that remain unbeaten, with three of those currently receiving some votes in the AP poll.

Army (4-0) @ Tulsa (2-3), 11:00 CDT, ESPNU
Navy (4-0) @ Air Force (1-3), 11:00 CDT, FBS1
James Madison (4-0) @ Louisiana-Monroe (3-1), 6:00 CDT, FBS1

Liberty was forced to cancel last week’s game against Appalachian State due to Hurricane Helene, and this weekend’s game was moved to Tuesday night for the same reason. Here’s that game’s info:

Florida International (2-3) @ Liberty (4-0), Tuesday, 6:00 CDT, FBS1

Playoff Projections by Tiers

To organize the teams in contention for playoff berths, all of the Power 4 conference members (+ Notre Dame) have been divided into tiers based on how much they have left to do to make the playoffs, or at least be on the bubble for being in serious consideration. Any team with 2 losses or more are not included as it’s highly unlikely that any of them will be in contention at the end, though when/if that changes, they will be re-listed as appropriate. The tiers mostly correlate with which teams have the fewest losses, but with a couple of exceptions. I have NOT arranged the tiers based on who is most likely to make the playoffs, which is what I have seen other commentators do. Instead, I have organized them based on how many more losses a team can sustain and still be legitimately considered a playoff contender. The results are similar in general, but my criteria results in fewer Tier 1 teams.

Tier 1
The Tier 1 teams are the highest ranked and undefeated teams who seem to be able to lose 2 more games and still have a likely shot at the playoffs. Georgia was a Tier 1 team last week, but lost a close game to the new #1 team, Alabama, so they only dropped to #5 in the AP poll. This is why they were listed as a Tier 1 team: they can likely lose another close game to a highly ranked opponent, and they will still get an invitation to the playoffs as an at-large team.

Tier 2
Tier 2 teams are those who can afford to lose one more game and still would likely make the playoffs. These are predominantly undefeated teams who were not initially ranked in the top 5 The exceptions are Georgia, Clemson, and Notre Dame, who are one-loss teams who could likely absorb one more loss and still be in strong consideration for a playoff spot.

Tier 3
Tier 3 teams are those who would likely make the playoffs if they win the rest of their games. In other words, they cannot afford any more losses. There are 23 teams left in the Power 4 conferences who already have 1 loss AND did not start the season highly ranked. Nebraska is in this group. Most are highly unlikely to win out the rest of the way, so they’ll be removed each week as those teams falter.

Here is what the Power 4 conferences look like when the top teams are broken down into tiers:

SEC
Tier 1
Texas
Alabama

Tier 2
Tennessee
Georgia (3-1)
Missouri

Tier 3
Ole Miss
LSU
Oklahoma
South Carolina
Texas A&M

Big Ten
Tier 1
Ohio State

Tier 2
Oregon
Penn State
Rutgers
Indiana

Tier 3
Michigan
USC
Illinois
Nebraska
Iowa

ACC
Tier 1
[none]

Tier 2
Miami
Clemson (3-1)
Duke
Pitt

Tier 3
Louisville
Boston College
Syracuse
SMU
Cal
Virginia

Big 12
Tier 1
[none]

Tier 2
Iowa State
BYU

Tier 3
Kansas State
Arizona
Utah
Colorado
UCF
Arizona State
Texas Tech

Independent
Tier 1
[none]

Tier 2
Notre Dame (4-1)

My Projected Final Rankings for College Football Playoffs

1. Ohio State (13-0 Big Ten champ)
2. Georgia (12-1 SEC champ)
3. Miami (12-1 ACC champ)
4. Utah (12-1 Big 12 champ)
5. Alabama (11-1 - loses SEC championship game)
6. Oregon (11-1)
7. Texas (11-1)
8. Notre Dame (11-1)
9. Tennessee (11-2)
10 Penn State (11-2 - loses Big Ten championship game)
11. Ole Miss (11-2)
12. Boise State (11-1 Mountain West champ)

Teams on the bubble for at-large bids: Michigan, Clemson, USC, Kansas State, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, UCF, BYU

Teams on the bubble for 5th highest ranked conference champion: UNLV, James Madison, Washington State, Memphis, Liberty

*This list will be updated each week as the season evolves. A Tier 4 will be added as soon as the number of undefeated and 1-loss teams dwindles down far enough to make it necessary, and the number of 2-loss teams has dwindled down far enough to make it manageable. For those who want to understand a little more about the politics that will be going on behind the scenes as the playoff committee meets to rank the teams during the season and eventually choose who is invited into the 12-team playoff, this article explains several things that will likely affect who gets in. Here is what last week’s projections looked like.

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