Week 9 College Football Matchups to Watch

Will it take a miracle for Nebraska to make the playoffs?

Nebraska tight end Thomas Fidone turns up field after catching a short pass against Rutgers. / Kenny Larabee, KLIN

It will not take a miracle for Nebraska to make the playoffs, but … the odds are NOT good. Let’s start with the most obvious game, which is also the longest odds….

Nebraska (5-2)
#4 Ohio State (5-1)
11:00 CDT, FBS 1
Nebraska is currently listed as a 3-touchdown underdog on most betting platforms. After last week’s abysmal performance, Nebraska needs to make a splash to get out of the ditch. Knocking off the Buckeyes would definitely qualify, but is it possible? Yes, but not likely. In an alternate universe, both Nebraska and Ohio State were going to arrive undefeated for this game with the Buckeyes ranked #1 and Nebraska somewhere in the top 10, and in that scenario, Nebraska could afford to lose this game to the Buckeyes and still be in prime position for a playoff spot. Now, however, there is almost no mathematical possibility for Nebraska to make it into the playoffs without winning this game. This does feel a little like the run-up to the 2018 Nebraska-Ohio State game, which Nebraska should have/could have won in Columbus.

The Big Ten conference will likely get three playoff berths, possibly four depending on what happens with Notre Dame and how many SEC teams finish with less than 3 losses. Right now, there are five Big Ten teams with a better record than Nebraska: Oregon (7-0), Indiana (7-0), Penn State (6-0), Illinois (6-1), and Ohio State (5-1). Even if Nebraska can defeat Ohio State, the Buckeyes would still be chosen over Nebraska by the committee, and the same is true of the other four teams. In other words, Nebraska needs 1) to win all of its games, and 2) to have at least 2 of those 5 teams finish the regular season with 3 losses. Most Husker fans are more concerned about winning a 6th game in order to be bowl eligible at this point, which is reasonable, but all of the what-ifs will be laid out here, just in case anyone is curious.

Big Ten Games to Watc
h#20 Illinois (6-1)
#1 Oregon (6-0) 2:30 CDT, CBS
Oregon is a 21.5-point favorite in this game. If Illinois loses, they will only need to lose one more to fall behind Nebraska, but … there isn’t another obvious loss left on their schedule. Their final four games are Minnesota, Michigan States, Rutgers, and Northwestern. It’s still much more likely that they will lose 2 more than whatever the odds are that Oregon would lose three, so … Go Ducks!

#3 Penn State (6-0)
Wisconsin (5-2)
6:30 CDT, NBC/Peacock
Nebraska will still play Wisconsin, so it would help the Huskers’ strength of schedule for Wisconsin to win, plus it would be a loss for one of the teams above the Huskers in the Big Ten standings. Go Badgers!

Washington (4-3)
#13 Indiana (7-0)
11:00 CDT, BTN
It is not clear that it would be good for Nebraska if Indiana loses this game as it would make Nebraska look worse since the Hoosiers just thrashed them, but also Indiana only has Ohio State left to play as far as other ranked teams on their schedule. If Indiana were to lose to both Washington and Ohio State, they would still have to also lose to one of the other three teams left on their schedule: Michigan State, Michigan, and Purdue. If Nebraska were to beat Ohio State, it would be better for Nebraska if Indiana were to upset them also. There is no clear team to support here.

Besides the need to finish no lower than 4th in the Big Ten, Nebraska will need help elsewhere. There would need to be no at-large bids for any teams outside of the SEC and the Big Ten. There will automatically be 5 bids to the highest rated conference champions, so it’s necessary for the runners-up of the ACC and the Big 12 to have 3 or more losses. Ditto for Notre Dame. The second-highest ranked Group of 5 team needs to either have 3 losses or at least be ranked lower than Nebraska. Finally, the SEC needs to be contained to as few teams as possible. It is difficult to create a realistic scenario where at least 4 SEC teams would NOT get into the playoffs, and it’s more likely that 5 would get in. If Nebraska could be ranked higher than that 5th team in the SEC, it would work. Here is what that would look like:

#1 Big Ten champion

#2 SEC champion

#3 ACC champion

#4 Big 12 champion

#5 SEC team #2

#6 Big Ten team #2

#7 SEC team #3

#8 Big Ten team #3

#9 SEC team #4

#10 Big Ten team #4

#11 SEC team #5

#12 Group of Five conference champion

If Notre Dame gets a bid, it would mean that one of the lower Big Ten or SEC teams does not get a bid. Ditto for if the ACC runner-up gets in. If they both get in, it would likely mean that there would be no bids for the 4th highest Big Ten team or the 5th highest SEC team. The above is somewhat plausible … as long as Nebraska beats Ohio State and wins out the rest of the way. Here is what would need to happen elsewhere….

SEC Games to Watch
#2 Georgia (6-1) and #7 Tennessee (6-1) have a bye this week. They play each other November 17 at Georgia. Either would still make the playoffs even with another loss, and Georgia could probably lose 2 more if they’re against top teams. Besides Georgia, the only ranked team left for the Vols is Vanderbilt. At this point, I assume that both Georgia and Tennessee will be in the playoffs. Georgia also plays Ole Miss the week before the Tennessee game, on November 9 at Ole Miss. Two of those three will most likely get in, plus Texas. To keep the number to a total of four, only one from Missouri, LSU, Alabama, Texas A&M, and Vanderbilt can get in. If the SEC gets five teams into the playoffs, the Big Ten would have to have four teams ranked ahead of Notre Dame and the runners-up of the ACC and the Big 12.

#5 Texas (6-1)
#25 Vanderbilt (5-2)
3:15 CDT, SEC Network
With all of the best SEC teams playing each other, the ideal scenario is for 2-3 teams to knock out everybody else. Texas is one of the teams that can do that. It would be better for Nebraska if Texas beats Vanderbilt. Even with a 2nd loss, Texas would likely make the playoffs.

#21 Missouri (6-1)

#15 Alabama (5-2)

2:30 CDT, ABC/ESPN+

Both of these teams have been struggling for a few weeks, but if Missouri beats Alabama, it would immediately give them more credibility, and it wouldn’t necessarily knock Alabama out of the running, even with 3 losses. It would probably be best for Nebraska if Alabama were to win this game. LSU would also be a potential loss for the Tide. Regardless of who wins, it would be better if it is NOT a close game.

Oklahoma (4-3)

#18 Ole Miss (5-2)

11:00 CDT, ESPN

Ole Miss needs to lose another game. If it is not to Oklahoma, there are still games remaining against Arkansas, Georgia, and Florida. It would be shocking if they beat Georgia. It would be better if they lost now and cleared the runway. Boomer!

Big 12 Games to Watch
#11 BYU (7-0)
UCF (3-4)
2:30 PM CDT, ESPN
BYU (along with Iowa State) is one of the last two remaining undefeated teams in the Big 12. In order to limit the Big 12 conference to just one team in the playoffs, ideally there would be no teams besides the conference champion with less than 2 losses at the end of the season. UCF looked good running the ball against Iowa State, but they let the game slip away late. Maybe this is the week that they finish it? Go, Knights!

#10 Iowa State has a bye this week

Kansas (2-5)
#16 Kansas State (6-1)
7:00 CDT, ESPN2
Besides Iowa State and BYU, Kansas State is the only other Big 12 team with less than 2 losses. This would be a nice week for Kansas to finally play up to their potential. Go Jayhawks!

ACC Games to Watch
#19 Pittsburgh (7-0) defeated Syracuse (5-2) on Thursday night, 41-13. Pitt and Miami are the last 2 undefeated teams in the ACC. Clemson, SMU, and Duke each have 1 loss. Nebraska would need to have only the conference champion finish with less than 2 losses.

#9 Clemson (6-1) is idle this week.

Florida State (1-6)
#6 Miami (7-0)
6:00 CDT, ESPN
This was thought to be the game of the year in the ACC before Florida State imploded. Miami has been consistently playing just well enough to win in a shootout. Is this the week that the Seminoles finally play like they should? I doubt it, but it would be nice for Miami to have a loss.

#22 SMU (6-1)
Duke (6-1)
7:00 CDT, ACC Network
Someone is getting their second loss. Both have tough games next week as SMU plays Pitt, and Duke plays Miami.

Games to Watch Outside of the Power 4 Conferences

#12 Notre Dame (6-1)
#24 Navy (6-0)
11:00 CDT, ABC/ESPN+
This game is a lot more interesting than anybody would have expected in the preseason. It really isn’t yet clear how good either of these teams are. Notre Dame has yet to play Army and USC. Navy’s only other ranked opponent left to play is also Army at the end of the season, but they could also meet again in the American Athletic Conference’s championship game. Probably the best-case scenario for a Nebraska playoff hope would be for Notre Dame to win this game and the Army game, then lose to USC at the end of the season.

#17 Boise State (5-1)
UNLV (6-1)
Friday, 9:30 CDT, CBSSN
Because there are automatic bids for the 5 highest ranked conference champions, this game could end up deciding who gets that 5th slot. These two teams will likely end up playing again in the conference championship, so there is a chance that they could each lose once.

#23 Army (7-0) is idle this week.

And that’s it. That’s all that is necessary for Nebraska to have a good shot at getting into the playoffs.