Predicting the College Football Playoffs: Key Week 3 Matchups to Watch

The games this weekend that are most likely to shape Nebraska's chances in the postseason.

Nebraska wide receiver Isaiah Neyor catches a 16-yard pass from quarterback Dylan Raiola against Colorado. / Kenny Larabee, KLIN

The ongoing pecking order of importance of games for Nebraska in order to make the playoffs can be listed as follows for every week of the season:

1. Nebraska needs to win. If Nebraska goes undefeated, no other games would stop them. Nebraska would likely make the playoffs with just one loss, and there would still be a shot at making the playoffs with 2 losses, but it would require some outside assistance.
2. Nebraska’s opponents—past and present—need to win. The more they win, the better it looks if Nebraska beats them or—Heaven forefend!—loses to them, especially if it means as many as possible could be ranked as highly as possible.
3. Teams ranked ahead of Nebraska that won’t play Nebraska need to lose. (Get the riffraff out of there!)
4. Big Ten teams need to beat non-Big Ten teams whenever possible. The perceived strength of the conference as a whole will have an outsized effect on how the CFP committee views the wins and losses of teams from different conferences that have roughly the same record.

Put all of that together, and it is much simpler to determine which games should matter the most to Nebraska fans. With these criteria in mind, here are the most important games for Nebraska this week.…

Nebraska needs to manhandle Northern Iowa

Scheduling an FCS team usually means that you’re buying an extra home game (because you won’t have to play a home-and-home series), and you’re expecting to win relatively easily. If you’re not careful though, your athletic director could mess up and accidentally schedule one of those FCS teams with “Dakota” in their name, and then it could get a bit dicey if things aren’t bouncing your way. Northern Iowa is traditionally a quality FCS program that plays in the Missouri Valley Football Conference, which has produced the FCS champion in eleven of the past thirteen seasons. (Paul Finebaum dreams of the SEC having that sort of domination.) Northern Iowa had a solid team last year, but they graduated a lot of talent, so Nebraska has no excuses for doing anything less than beating them soundly. Ideally, Nebraska would be up big at halftime so as to prevent anything dramatic being said against Nebraska, and it would also allow Coach Rhule to go deep into the subs in the second half.

Nebraska’s future opponents need to win as much as possible.

Illinois hosts Central Michigan, which is a game they should win. If they win easily, it likely would mean that Illinois would move into the top 25 rankings just in time for the September 20 game at Nebraska.

Purdue hosts #18 Notre Dame, who were just upset at home by Northern Illinois. This is a long longshot, but Purdue likes to do Purduey things, and beating Notre Dame would be perfectly in line with that.

Indiana travels to UCLA. Nebraska will play both of these teams, but Indiana has the clearer path to being ranked when they play Nebraska. They haven’t played anybody noteworthy yet, but the Hoosiers are undefeated, and they have a very workable schedule for the remaining three games that they will play before Nebraska comes to town on October 19.

Wisconsin hosts #4 Alabama. It would be an unbelievable upset, but if Wisconsin could somehow manage to pull off the victory, it would simultaneously raise the pedigree of the Big Ten while humbling the SEC. Don’t bet on it.

Iowa hosts Troy, who won the Sun Belt last year, so they are not a team to be taken lightly.

(Rutgers, Ohio State, and USC have the week off.)

Nebraska’s past opponents could contribute.

UTEP lost by a field goal to Southern Utah, an FCS school, in Week 2. Since Nebraska beat them handily in Week 1, there isn’t a lot that UTEP could do that would hurt or help the media perception of Nebraska, but … UTEP does travel to Liberty this week, and Liberty was the top-ranked G5 team last year, and they are receiving votes in the AP poll this year.

Colorado travels to Colorado State, and it could severely curtail their chances if Shilo and Shedeur Sanders are not healthy enough to play. Colorado likely needs to win this game to have a shot at being bowl eligible.

Other Big Ten games to watch

The Pac 12’s Last Hurrah

Week 3 has the potential to be retitled as “The Revenge of the Pac 2” if Oregon State were to upset Oregon in this year’s early version of The Civil War, AND if Washington State were to upset Washington in this year’s early version of the Apple Cup. Both games formerly came at the end of the regular season, but now that Oregon and Washington have left the Pac 12 to join the Big Ten, these are now nonconference games that needed to be rescheduled earlier in the season. As every other Pac 12 team left the conference, it now consists solely of the two unwanted orphans: Oregon State and Washington State. Despite only consisting of 2 teams, the Pac 12 still exists, and it is still recognized as an official conference for the 2024 season by the NCAA. When Oregon State hosts Washington State on November 23, it will be a one-game conference season and championship game all wrapped up in one contest. If either team pulls an upset this week AND wins the game in November, it would actually be conceivable for that team to have a solid chance at winning the 5th auto-bid as the 5th highest ranked conference champion. Is it likely? No, but what could possibly be a sweeter form of revenge than making the playoffs by upsetting your in-state rival who left you behind for greener pa$ture$? Anybody whose heart strings are moved by images of puppies and kittens abandoned to be desperate for adoption at an animal shelter, the Oregon State Beavers and Washington State Cougars have very sad faces that longingly implore you to give them some attention and affection for their one last go-round. While it is NOT in Nebraska or the Big Ten’s best interest for either team to win on Saturday, I wouldn’t mind if they did.

SEC teams to watch

#16 LSU @ South Carolina – South Carolina surprisingly blew up Kentucky on Saturday, and their home stadium has a reputation for being a tough place to play. Another loss by LSU could effectively knock them out of the running for the playoffs, but an undefeated South Carolina would then likely replace them in the polls at or near the same ranking.

#24 Boston College @ #6 Missouri – Boston College roughed up Florida State in Week 1. How good are they? How good is Missouri? We may not know a whole lot more after this game, but somebody is going to slide in the polls.

Tulane @ #15 Oklahoma – Tulane could have beat Kansas State this past week, but a controversial call and a late Wildcats score took the game away from them. Conversely, Oklahoma had to scramble to put away a lightly regarded Houston team. Is this the week when fortune balances things out with a Green Wave victory?

Texas A&M @ Florida – both teams already have a loss, so this is effectively an elimination match.

#5 Ole Miss @ Wake Forest – Wake Forest lost a close one to Virginia, so this really shouldn’t be close, but who knows?

#1 Georgia @ Kentucky – Georgia will win, but by how much?

Big 12 teams to watch

#14 Kansas State @ #20 Arizona – It’s the “Battle of the Wildcats” in the all-new Big 12. Kansas State was lucky to beat Tulane on Saturday, but it had little effect on their poll rankings. Arizona hasn’t been tested yet. These are two of the best teams in the Big 12. The losing team would likely have to win the conference to have any hope of making the playoffs because neither is likely to get an invitation with 2 losses otherwise.

UCF @ TCU – Both teams are tough to read or predict, but the loser is in the same position as the loser of the game above: they would need to win the conference to get into the playoffs.

G5 teams to watch

Arizona State @ Texas State – Texas State is the favorite to win their division of the Sun Belt, and they seem like a decent bet to be the team that wins the auto-bid for being the 5th highest ranked conference champion. Texas State is currently a 1-point favorite at home.

UNLV @ Kansas – Kansas likely needs to win the conference to have a shot at the playoffs after losing to Illinois last week, but … UNLV is one of five Group of Five teams currently receiving votes in the AP poll, so this is likely an elimination match for playoff consideration.

Memphis @ Florida State – Memphis could build a better resume as the potential G5 champion if they have a win over the Seminoles, whose hopes for a playoff berth may already be gone.

#25 Northern Illinois is currently the only ranked G5 team. Boise State, Memphis, Liberty, and UNLV are unranked but receiving votes in the AP poll. Texas State is not receiving votes, but may be the best of the G5. Oregon State and Washington State should now technically be included in the G5 (G6?) schools, and either would likely earn a ranking if they win their game this weekend. All of these teams are listed above, except for Boise State and Northern Illinois, who do not play this week.

With the new 12-team playoff system in place, more teams will have more chances to make the playoffs, and their opportunities will last much longer into the season. This series of articles is intended to continue all season with three subjects per week: reflections on the past week; games to anticipate for the coming week; and an overview of how the whole system is coming together and evolving with projections for who will make the playoffs, bubble teams, power rankings, etc. All will be written from the perspective of a Nebraska fan who wants a summary of who to root for and why, what needs to happen for Nebraska to make the playoffs, and an occasional look at the politics and economics that are likely going on behind the scenes as it is a political process that will choose which teams make it.

MORE: Predicting the College Football Playoffs: Reflections on Week 2

MORE: Northern Iowa to Provide Nebraska Football's Defense a 'Good Preview to Big Ten Ball'

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