5 Most Likely Notre Dame Bowl Projections: Early Summer Version

The 2024-2025 college football bowl and expanded College Football Playoff schedule has been released. What are the five most likely bowl spots for Notre Dame?

Notre Dame celebrates their 40-8 win against Oregon State in the 90th annual Sun Bowl game on Friday, Dec. 29, 2023, at El Paso, Texas. / GABY VELASQUEZ/ EL PASO TIMES / USA

Has the college football bowl season all seemed a little - let's just say - lacking lately?

Oh sure, we all watch - what, we're supposed to actually talk to other people at holiday parties? - but with all of the opt-outs, coaching changes, and other modern day factors, the bowls have become exhibitions more than ever.

But now that we have an expanded College Football Playoff schedule, the bowl season from mid-December through late January will be bigger and far more fun than ever before. And why? More of the games will matter now.

The 2024-2025 college football bowl and playoff schedule is out, so where will Notre Dame fit into the bowl picture?

Start with the basic assumption that the Irish will not only go bowling, but will be a major factor with a stunningly manageable schedule and a team good enough to be in the CFP mix.

There's no way, no how Notre Dame doesn't get to six wins and a bowl game without something catastrophic happening. Seriously, the schedule has too many built-in victories, but let's go with five different tiers here depending on the final record.

It's the early summer version of our Notre Dame bowl projections - this will be more definitive later - and we'll do this a little bit differently.

What happens if Notre Dame wins just six games? Seven? Or eight, nine, or ten or more? Let's start with the realistic worst case scenario and go up.

Remember, Notre Dame has ACC bowl ties and is eligible for any of the conference's slots.

What bowl will the Irish go to if ...

Notre Dame Bowl Projection 6-6

Notre Dame isn't going 6-6 this season.

It'll be closer to winning 10 or 11 games than six or seven, but we'll start here, just in case.

With a bigger ACC now with Cal, Stanford, and SMU around, geography will play more of a role than ever if any of those three can get to six wins. They'd all likely be out of the mix for the Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl in the Bronx, or the Wasabi Fenway Bowl in Boston - especially since SMU played in the latter last year.

Notre Dame at 6-6 still matters in the bowl mix. The Go Bowling Military Bowl would be a possibility, but that's not in the greatest of slots - early evening on Saturday, December 28th - so let's go with the idea that a mediocre Irish team is still wanted in a big way by the New York City bowl vs a Big Ten team.

Notre Dame Bowl Projection, 6 Wins: Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl vs Big Ten, Saturday, December 28, ABC

Notre Dame Bowl Projection 7

There will be SO many bowl eligible ACC teams, but once you get into the 7-5 range, the mid-level bowl games will beat each other up to get the Irish.

The Go Bowling Military Bowl could be an option, but the more interesting matchup would likely be in Orlando against a strong-name Big 12 team - and the ABC factor on a Saturday afternoon could play a huge role.

Notre Dame Bowl Projection, 7 Wins: Pop-Tarts Bowl vs Big 12, Saturday, December 28, ABC

Notre Dame Bowl Projection 8-4

As always, if a bowl game can land Notre Dame, it'll do it. The problem is that a few ACC teams should hover around the 8-to-10 win range without getting into the expanded CFP.

The Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl is almost certainly out after playing in it last year, and the TaxSlayer Gator might suddenly be a bit of a reach, even though the 8-4 2022 Irish played in it. So in terms of a big matchup against an important sounding Big Ten or SEC team, assume ...

Notre Dame Bowl Projection, 8 Wins: ReliaQuest Bowl vs Big Ten or SEC, Tuesday, December 31st, ESPN

Notre Dame Bowl Projection 9-3

Here's the good and the bad for Notre Dame going 9-3 - it might be the same outcome as going 10-2.

More on this in a moment, but getting to ten wins isn't a lock for the expanded CFP. The ACC bowl ties and affiliations aren't quite the same now as they used to be - the Orange Bowl is an expanded CFP game every year now - so it's about the best possible bowl matchup.

Remember, the idea of a New Year's Six bowl game doesn't exist now. They're all playoff games.

So while it doesn't sound massive compared to everyone paying attention to the CFP games, the likely 9-3 bowl destination would be ...

Notre Dame Bowl Projection, 9 Wins: TaxSlayer Gator Bowl vs SEC, Thursday, January 2nd, ESPN

Notre Dame Wins 10+ Games Bowl Projections

If you're here and reading this you almost certainly know that the Irish can't get one of the top four spots in the new expanded College Football Playoff because they can't/won't be a conference champion. So even if they go 12-0 and wallop everyone by five touchdowns, they can't be seeded any higher than 5 in the 12 team field.

12-0 gets Notre Dame the 5 seed, and at crazy-worst, the 6.

11-1 - at least historically over the ten years of final College Football Playoff rankings - would mean nothing worse than an 8 seed, and likely 5 to 7. No matter what, though, at 11-1 there's NO realistic way the first round CFP game wouldn't be played in South Bend.

10-2 gets tricky.

It would have to take something extraordinary for the committee not to put in a ten-win Notre Dame team, but last year 10-2 Oklahoma would've been out. 10-2 Washington would've missed the fun in 2022, and several ten-win teams would've been left out in 2021.

Here's the other X factor - conference championships.

For the most part the Power Five conference championships were chalky during the CFP era - the favorites almost always won. But now in the expanded format, the top five ranked conference champs are in.

That accounts for the top Group of Five - AAC, CUSA, MAC, Mountain West, Sun Belt - champ, but if, say, some 9-3 team shocks the 11-1 powerhouse in one of the Power Four - ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC - championships, that would likely mean both would get in, and 10-2 Notre Dame would be in trouble. So ...

Notre Dame Bowl Projection, 10+ Wins: Expanded CFP with home field first round with 11 or 12 wins. TaxSlayer Gator Bowl vs SEC, or first round CFP road game with 10 wins.

Notre Dame Football Ranked in NCAA Academic Progress Rate Top 10