Bold Predictions for Notre Dame vs. Penn State Orange Bowl Showdown

Old rivals Notre Dame and Penn State meet in Miami with a trip to the national championship on the line

Jan 2, 2025; New Orleans, LA, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish quarterback Riley Leonard (13) celebrates with fans in the stands after defeating the Georgia Bulldogs at Caesars Superdome. / Amber Searls-Imagn Images

Notre Dame football is just one win away from playing for a national championship but the task at hand is a difficult one as a very formidable Penn State opponent awaits in the Orange Bowl.

Two of the nation's most physical teams are set to square off with the winner advancing to Atlanta and the national championship game.

Can Notre Dame's running attack find success against Penn State that it was able to overcome not having against Georgia?

Can Penn State take advantage of having the better downfield passer at quarterback or will Riley Leonard and Notre Dame prove too much to overcome?

Here is what the Notre Dame on Sports Illustrated staff sees happening on Thursday night in Miami.

Notre Dame vs. Penn State Predictions: Nathan Erbach

Jan 2, 2025; New Orleans, LA, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish wide receiver Jordan Faison (6) is tackled by Georgia Bulldogs defensive back Malaki Starks (24) during the second half at Caesars Superdome. / Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

This is same prediction I made when Notre Dame played at Texas A&M to begin the year, and as of now, I see this game in a similar light. 

Penn State is better than A&M, but also Notre Dame is better than when they played A&M as well. I do have concerns about some of the injuries and if it will eventually catch up to Notre Dame, but picking against this defense at this point just doesn’t feel right. 

Game Prediction: Notre Dame 24, Penn State 16

Bold prediction: Jordan Faison continues his post season breakout of sorts and goes for over 100 yards receiving. 

Notre Dame vs. Penn State Predictions: Jeff Feyerer

Jan 2, 2025; New Orleans, LA, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish quarterback Riley Leonard (13) hands off to Notre Dame Fighting Irish running back Jadarian Price (24) on a run against the Georgia Bulldogs during the second half at Caesars Superdome. / Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

per Pro Football Focus, the Nittany Lions have missed a tackle on 17% of plays this season, the fourth-worst rate in the Power Four. While they were able to hold Ashton Jeanty in check, that was largely due to the poor Boise State run blocking grade. I don't expect that to happen versus the Irish. Notre Dame playing Georgia last week while Penn State has faced lesser competition in SMU and Boise State will serve them well in preparation for this game. Georgia may not be of the same quality of recent vintage, but that's a squad that won the SEC Championship. On to the National Championship for the Irish...

Game Prediction: Notre Dame 28, Penn State 17


Bold Prediction: Jeremiyah Love will see limited action, but Jadarian Price, Aneyas Williams and Riley Leonard all rush for at least 50 yards in an attempt to replace his production in the aggregate. 

Notre Dame vs. Penn State Predictions: Mason Plummer

Notre Dame safety Adon Shuler, left, and cornerback Leonard Moore (15) break up a pass intended for Indiana wide receiver Andison Coby (0) during the first round of the College Football Playoff between Notre Dame and Indiana at Notre Dame Stadium on Friday, Dec. 20, 2024, in South Bend. / MICHAEL CLUBB/SOUTH BEND TRIBUNE / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The loss of not having Jeremiyah Love at full strength is felt but the Irish prevail through the legs of quarterback Riley Leonard as he rushes for over 50 yards and two touchdowns.

Game Prediction: Notre Dame 24, Penn State 20

Bold Prediction: Drew Allar throws two untimely interceptions as the Irish secondary clamps down the Nittany Lions offense

Notre Dame vs. Penn State Predictions: John Kennedy

Jan 2, 2025; New Orleans, LA, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish quarterback Riley Leonard (13) celebrates the win against Georgia Bulldogs at Caesars Superdome. / Amber Searls-Imagn Images

After being completely written off after the first week of September, the Irish have won 12 games in a row, their last 9 by double digits. On the backs of this run Notre Dame is just a single win away from playing for its next national title. Despite the injuries, this team has continued to win. Why pick against them now? The Irish will slow down Penn State's run game and limit TE Tyler Warren while the offense does just enough behind Riley Leonard's legs and leadership. The party is on. 

Game Prediction: Notre Dame 28, Penn State 20

Bold Prediction: Tyler Warren will be held to his lowest yardage output of the season.

Notre Dame vs. Penn State Predictions: Nick Shepkowski

Jan 2, 2025; New Orleans, LA, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish head coach Marcus Freeman is announced to fans after defeating the Georgia Bulldogs after the game at Caesars Superdome. / Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

These teams appear about as even as possible in many ways so lets get down to what we trust the most to work Thursday night. Notre Dame's rushing offense has been elite while Penn State has struggled the last two years to make that stop when needed.

Michigan threw for just 60 yards in a 24-15 win at Penn State last year.
Ohio State ran 44 times for 176 yards in a win in Happy Valley this year that saw the Buckeyes the final 5:13 of the contest as Penn State couldn't hold the Buckeyes running game in check.
Oregon ran for 186 yards in the Big Ten Championship victory over Penn State in which it never trailed.

Welcome to Atlanta where the players play for the Irish!

Game Prediction: Notre Dame 24, Penn State 10

Bold Prediction: Drew Allar's 12-20 for 146 yards; an interception and no touchdowns will be rivaled as Notre Dame's secondary dominates yet again.

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