Game Prediction: Notre Dame vs Cincinnati

Irish Breakdown makes predictions for the matchup between #9 Notre Dame vs #7 Cincinnati

Notre Dame will look to extend its 26-game home winning streak this weekend, but doing so won't be easy as the 9th-ranked Fighting Irish host the 7th-ranked Cincinnati Bearcats.

We spent all week breaking down the game and now it is time to make our final predictions.

BRYAN DRISKELL, PUBLISHER

Prediction: Notre Dame 27, Cincinnati 16

Cincinnati is probably the best team Notre Dame has faced thus far in the season, and the Bearcats could still hold that title when the regular season is over. I'm not one of those "Cincinnati is a Group of 5 team, they aren't that good." This is a quality football team that is capable of coming into South Bend and knocking off the Irish.

But that's not how I see this game playing out.

Notre Dame's defense is playing lights out football right now and I expect that to continue on Saturday. Marcus Freeman and his unit are going to do to the Bearcat blockers what they did to the Wisconsin big men, and that is use their athleticism to dominate at the point of attack. The Irish will keep Desmond Ridder uncomfortable in this matchup and although the Bearcats will have their moments and big plays, at the end of the day it's not enough to stay with Notre Dame.

If I had more confidence in the Notre Dame offense I'd pick a more convincing outcome, but I'm at the point in this season where I need to see it to believe it. I'm going with 27 because Notre Dame has still been able to rip off enough big plays to score points, and that will continue in this contest. The Irish simply have too many playmakers for Cincinnati to shut them all down and the big plays are enough for the Irish to earn a convincing victory.

I will add one side "what if" prediction. If the Notre Dame offensive line just has a solid game, a physical, body-on-a-body type of game the Irish will steamroll Cincinnati, but I'm just not willing to predict that as part of my official prediction.

VINCE DEDARIO, FOOTBALL ANALYST

Prediction: Notre Dame 28, Cincinnati 24

I am certain that the defense will show up and dominate this matchup. My bigger question is what will the offense bring to the table? Is this the week where the Irish put it all together offensively? They are SO close. I am not sure they will put is ALL together this week but I think it will be just enough.

GRANT DELVECCHIO, STAFF WRITER

Prediction: Notre Dame 35, Cincinnati 21

It seems a little disrespectful to me that the Bearcats are favored on Saturday. There's no question Cincinnati is a talented team with a proven coaching staff, but the Bearcats have yet to play a team of Notre Dame's caliber this season. Plus, as much as Cincinnati quarterback Desmond Ridder would like to think that the Bearcats will be able to quiet Notre Dame Stadium down, the reality is Cincinnati hasn't played in the type of hostile environment that will be presented to them on Saturday. Though both teams have explosive playmakers on offense, this will likely be a game won on the defensive end. The stage could not be bigger for Irish defensive coordinator Marcus Freeman, who's just one year removed from leading the Bearcats defense, and I expect Freeman and the Notre Dame defense to neutralize a gifted offense for the third straight week. This will be a close game from start to finish.

ANDREW MCDONOUGH, IB CONTRIBUTOR

Prediction: Notre Dame 34, Cincinnati 17

Last week, I predicted that the Wisconsin game was shaping up to be very similar to the 2012 Oklahoma game, and it played out similarly, with late Irish touchdowns turning a close game into a rout. I feel this week’s game against Cincinnati is like the 2017 game against North Carolina State, which the Irish won 35-14. Heading into that game, ND was coming off a massive 49-14 win against rival USC and was playing a NC State team coming off a bye week, led by a senior QB, and sporting a strong rushing attack and defense that the “experts” felt would give Notre Dame problems. After NC State took a quick 7-0 lead after blocking a punt, ND’s superior talent and execution took over and the Irish dominated the rest of the way.

On Saturday, I expect Cincinnati to come out fast – as this is the biggest game in their program’s history – but ultimately Notre Dame will grind down the Bearcats and win this one going away, despite what the oddsmakers in Vegas think. Cincinnati has proven to be a streaky team offensively, turning a 7-7 game against Murray State at halftime into a 42-7 win, and a 10-0 deficit late in the second quarter against Indiana into a 38-24 win, but those games also showed that far inferior defenses to Notre Dame shut down the Cincinnati offense for extended periods of time. I expect the Irish defensive line to have a field day against a Cincinnati line that is nowhere near as talented as the ND defensive front and last year in the Peach Bowl against Georgia surrendered 8 sacks and 12 TFLs.

On offense, regardless of who plays QB, I expect the Irish to continue the incremental improvements of the past few weeks and use big plays to offset the limitations of the offensive line.

Lastly, one other key stat that favors the Irish is penalties. In 2020, Notre Dame ranked 10th in the nation for fewest penalties, while Cincinnati ranked 121st averaging 8.8 penalties per game. The Bearcats have been marginally better in 2021 but still average 7.8 penalties per game. I’m looking for Desmond Ridder to think he quieted the Notre Dame Stadium crowd with a big third-down scramble, only to realize it was coming back for a holding call. 

SHAUN DAVIS, ESPN CHICAGO

Prediction: Notre Dame 34, Cincinnati 24

The Cincinnati Bearcats are on the verge of playing the most important game in the history of the program as they invade South Bend on Saturday, and there’s something very weird about seeing the Fighting Irish as a two-point underdog in this matchup. Most of the early public money has come in on the Fighting Irish as it did last week when they dominated Wisconsin. The Bearcats pose a more formidable threat on offense and Desmond Ridder is set on scoring early and often based upon his comments leading up to the game. Jerome Ford and the receiving corps will be the most talented skill position group that the Irish may see all year, and the chess match between Mike Denbrock and his former colleague should be a treat to watch for four quarters. There were some early growing pains for Marcus Freeman’s defense. One of the keys to the defensive surge has been their ability to pressure the quarterback in the passing game and the backfield in the running game. Notre Dame has fourteen sacks through its first four games. That’s the most since the group that ended up facing Alabama in the National Championship game. The secondary has gone from a huge question mark over the summer to a group of playmakers. Offensively, Tommy Rees will need a more consistent performance from his offensive line to create the balance needed against an aggressive Bearcats’ defense looking to cause havoc from the first snap. 

RYAN ROBERTS, RISENDRAFT

Prediction: Notre Dame 34, Cincinnati 19

This is the week! Notre Dame puts together their most well rounded offensive performance of the week and uses the momentum from the fourth quarter of the Wisconsin game to pull away convincingly. Kyren Williams and Chris Tyree are the catalyst for a big night. The defense suffocates Bearcat quarterback Desmond Ridder, including five sacks and a turnover forced. Go Irish! 

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