Fiesta Bowl Predictions: #2 Michigan Wolverines vs #3 TCU Horned Frogs
The 2022 College Football Playoff kicks off with the Michigan Wolverines (13-0) and TCU Horned Frogs (12-1) looking to earn their first ever CFP victories. Michigan dominated the Big Ten while the Horned Frogs were the Cinderella story of the 2022 season.
Location: Glendale, Ariz. (State Farm Stadium)
When: December 31st - 4:00 PM ET
Network: ESPN
Spread: Michigan -7.5, O/U 58.5
IB has broken down the game and now it's time for us to make our predictions.
BRYAN DRISKELL, PUBLISHER
Prediction: TCU 30, Michigan 24
There are a lot of reasons to pick Michigan, no doubt about that. The Wolverines are red hot, they are a balanced football team and they are playing their best football of the season coming into the playoff. TCU has struggled to stop the run at times this season and Michigan is absolutely rolling on the ground this season.
I'm still picking TCU, and I have some reasons why I see this upset happening.
Number one, I still think Michigan has some holes in the secondary, especially against speed. Ohio State's problem wasn't an inability to beat Michigan deep, it was an unwillingness to try it. TCU won't have that problem. OSU quarterback CJ Stroud went 2-3 for 86 yards on throws beyond 20 yards against Michigan. TCU quarterback Max Duggan completed 50% of his throws beyond 20 yards and had an impressive 18-3 touchdown to interception ratio on those throws (according to Pro Football Focus). He'll test Michigan deep and I expect the Wolverines to have a tough time handling the speed of Quentin Johnston and Taye Barber.
Michigan will run the ball well early, but I think TCU is going to figure out ways to load the box enough to force Michigan to beat them through the air, and ultimately I'm going with Duggan over Wolverine quarterback JJ McCarthy.
VINCE DEDARIO, FOOTBALL ANALYST
Prediction: Michigan 34, TCU 21
I have been going back and forth on this one for a while. Really since the matchups were announced. I think this game lays out so well for Michigan that there is a definite chance that this game is not close at the end based on what is on paper.
Of course the game is not played on paper which is what TCU has going for it. They have played above their skis all season. They know how to win the close games. Michigan has not been in too many close games this year. Not even the OSU game was close. I think that says more about the weakness of the Big Ten and the competitiveness of the Big 12 but be that as it may, the Frogs are more battle tested.
At the end of the day though, I just think Michigan will be too much of a tough out for TCU. I will be rooting for the Horned Frogs but I think Michigan goes to their first Championship game. My fingers tingled in pain as I wrote this out by the way ...
RYAN ROBERTS, DIRECTOR OF RECRUITING
Prediction: Michigan 35, TCU 24
TCU has been a great story. They are an explosive offensive team but will be facing off against the best defense they have seen this season in Michigan.
The TCU defense is also not a very inspiring group. Michigan should be able to move the ball consistently and control the pace of this game.
SHAUN DAVIS, RECRUITING ANALYST
Prediction: Michigan 31, TCU 21
Can TCU defeat Michigan with its Big 12-style game where Max Duggan throws a few TD passes in the vertical passing game and Kendre Miller breaks out in the running game? Michigan wants to methodically wear TCU down with Donovan Edwards and play-action shots with quarterback JJ McCarthy. Expect the first half to be close with TCU possibly leading at the break. If McCarthy is efficient then the Wolverines will begin to distance themselves in the second half, where they have a +206-point differential.
SEAN STIRES, STAFF WRITER
Prediction: Michigan 38, TCU 24
Quarterback Max Duggan and TCU have lived on the edge during their Cinderella season. Five of their 12 wins have been one possession games. Michigan will be the best defense they’ve seen all season. They allow just 13.4 points per game and if they can shut down Buckeye quarterback CJ Stroud and Ohio State they can do the same to Duggan and the Horned Frogs.
ANDREW MCDONOUGH, IB CONTRIBUTOR
Prediction: TCU 28, Michigan 24
TCU's undefeated season came to an end with a close, controversial loss to Kansas State in the Big 12 Championship game, but the Horned Frogs still deservedly earned a spot in the CFP against Michigan. The Wolverines started Big Ten play slowly, with sloppy wins over Maryland, Iowa, and Indiana, but have peaked at the right time, knocking off Ohio State 45-23 in "The Game" and then defeating an overmatched Purdue team in the Big Ten Championship.
Michigan's defense only allowed 13.1 PPG on the strength of the Big Ten's best pass rush and a red zone defense allowing touchdowns on only 37.9% of red zone possessions. However, the Wolverines only ranked 93rd in the country in takeaways, and a TCU team that takes care of the ball (4th in the country in fewest turnovers) along with an athletic QB who can extend plays in Max Duggan will maximize their drives and continue their miracle run with a fourth quarter drive to win the game.
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