College Football Playoff Projections Shake Up After Thrilling Week 11

Notre Dame in a fight to earn a potential home College Football Playoff game following wild weekend

Nov 9, 2024; South Bend, Indiana, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish head coach Marcus Freeman reacts after a Fighting Irish touchdown against the Florida State Seminoles in the third quarter at Notre Dame Stadium. / Matt Cashore-Imagn Images

It has been the rule this college football season and not the exception, that craziness is coming on Saturday.

That was again the case this week as more upsets shook the college football world and despite getting a week closer to the post-season, the College Football Playoff picture got increasingly blurry.

No. 16 Ole Miss knocked off No. 3 Georgia in the most significant upset of the day as the Rebels are clawing to earn a spot in the CFP.

No. 4 Miami fell from the ranks of the unbeatens by finally finding out as it was beat at Georgia Tech, 28-23.

And BYU came back to hit a last second field goal to get by rival Utah in the Holy War.

So, what does the wild weekend mean in terms of the College Football Playoff?

Here is my latest College Football Playoff projection following another downright wild weekend of games.

College Football Playoff Projection: Top Four Seeds

Just a friendly reminder before we get going - this is based on what I think will happen combined with what already has this college football season.

Massive changes at the top this week.

The Georgia loss to Ole Miss makes their road to the SEC Championship game get that much more difficult while it's hard not to look at Texas as having the most manageable path currently.

The ACC is a toss up right now but even with the loss, Miami still probably remains the best bet. However, the ACC's chances of getting a second bid took a big hit with the Hurricanes loss at Georgia Tech.

BYU came within seconds of suffering its first loss and falling perhaps all the way to No. 12 in the projection. Instead, it sneaks by and wins, keeping the top four spot and the bye that comes with it.

1. Ohio State
2. Texas
3. Miami (FL)
4. BYU

College Football Playoff Projections: 5-8

Players celebrate a touchdown by Oregon offensive lineman Gernorris Wilson as the Oregon Ducks host the Maryland Terrapins at Autzen Stadium Saturday, Nov. 9, 2024 in Eugene, Ore. / Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Oregon remains undefeated after getting by Maryland fairly easy Saturday. The Ducks are currently No. 1 but I'd still pick Ohio State in a rematch in Indianapolis which the Big Ten Championship game would be.

Penn State was shown much love by the CFP committee as it ranked sixth this week. With a very favorable remaining schedule it's hard to see the Nittany Lions dropping.

Meanwhile, Georgia holds onto a home game despite the loss at Ole Miss, but that is also in part because I project it to beat Tennessee next week.

Notre Dame continues to destroy everything in its path since the Northern Illinois debacle, beating Florida State 52-3.

5. Oregon
6. Penn State
7. Georgia
8. Notre Dame

College Football Playoff Projections: 9-12

Nov 9, 2024; Baton Rouge, Louisiana, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Jalen Milroe (4) celebrates a touchdown with offensive lineman Geno VanDeMark (56) against the LSU Tigers during the second half at Tiger Stadium. / Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

Tennessee's win over Alabama carries the weight to remain seeded above the Crimson Tide, even following the Alabama domination at LSU.

Indiana got its biggest scare of the season as Michigan challenged it for all four quarters Saturday. What can the Hoosiers do in their trip to Ohio State next week?

BYU's win saves it from possibly falling all the way to 12 and Boise State from likely moving up to No. 4. I wouldn't be surprised to see Boise State move up the rankings but as of now, playing Boise State close isn't enough to move them past any of the Power Four contenders.

9. Tennessee
10. Alabama
11. Indiana
12. Boise State

College Football Playoff Projections - Bracket

First Round Byes:

1. Ohio State
2. Texas
3. Miami
4. BYU

First Round Games:

5. Oregon vs. 12. Boise State
6. Penn State vs. 11. Indiana
7. Georgia vs. 10. Alabama
8. Notre Dame vs. 9. Tennessee

Second Round Games:

1. Ohio State vs. 8. Notre Dame
4. BYU vs. 5. Oregon
3. Miami vs. 6. Penn State
2. Texas vs. 7. Georgia

Semi-Final Games

1. Ohio State vs. 5. Oregon
2. Texas vs. 6. Penn State

National Championship

5. Oregon over 2. Texas

Nick Shepkowski's Quick Thought:

If you need a reminder of just how important seeding is, check out how this breaks out. Penn State getting the six seed means it gets a home game against Indiana and a neutral site game against a very flawed Miami team.

If you're a Notre Dame fan, then you're hoping like all getup that the Irish can climb to get into the top six and get a setup like that.

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