College Football Playoff Projections Shake Up After Exciting Week 12

Notre Dame moves into the top six seeds after a pair of top seven teams fall

Notre Dame safety Xavier Watts (0), cornerback Christian Gray (29) and safety Adon Shuler (8) celebrate a Watts interception during a NCAA college football game against Virginia at Notre Dame Stadium on Saturday, Nov. 16, 2024, in South Bend. / MICHAEL CLUBB/SOUTH BEND TRIBUNE / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

It took a while to get there Saturday but some late disturbances in the college football force mean for some significant changes coming to the College Football Playoff projections.

The most important occurances Saturday night were No. 6 BYU falling at home to Kansas and No. 7 Tennessee falling at No. 12 Georgia. As a result, Notre Dame will almost certainly move up to the top six when the new rankings are released on Tuesday night.

But what does it mean for the College Football Playoff bracket?

Here is my best stab at a College Football Playoff projection after another wild weekend of college football, having Week 12 freshly concluded.

College Football Playoff Projection: Top Four Seeds

Nov 16, 2024; Boulder, Colorado, USA; Colorado Buffaloes head coach Deion Sanders calls in a play in the first quarter against the Utah Utes at Folsom Field. / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Oregon survived a scare at Wisconsin while Texas got by on a rather unimpressive afternoon at Arkansas.

I still don't see Oregon beating Ohio State in Indianapolis for the Big Ten championship game so I put the Buckeyes ahead there. Who knows, we could be setting up for these two now Big Ten rivals to meet three times this season.

As for the rest of the first round byes? Major changes hit the projections this week as I now move SMU into the role of ACC favorite and Colorado surpasses BYU in the Big 12.

1. Ohio State
2. Texas
3. SMU
4. Colorado

College Football Playoff Projections: 5-8

Notre Dame wide receiver Jayden Thomas (83) celebrates a touchdown during a NCAA college football game against Virginia at Notre Dame Stadium on Saturday, Nov. 16, 2024, in South Bend. / MICHAEL CLUBB/SOUTH BEND TRIBUNE / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Oregon escaped the best shot at a regular season loss Saturday as it got by Wisconsin late in Madison. Meanwhile, Penn State obliterated Purdue and Notre Dame cruised past Virginia.

I'm assuming Ohio State beats Indiana next week in Columbus but how close that game ends up being will go a long way in how far the Hoosiers may fall...or dare I say, rise?

5. Oregon
6. Penn State
7. Notre Dame
8. Indiana

College Football Playoff Projections: 9-12

Nov 16, 2024; Athens, Georgia, USA; Georgia Bulldogs running back Nate Frazier (3) celebrates after a touchdown with teammates against the Tennessee Volunteers in the fourth quarter at Sanford Stadium. / Brett Davis-Imagn Images

How in the world do you properly rank a handful of SEC teams that all have the same record? That's the challenge that awaits the College Football Playoff committee after Georgia stayed alive for the playoff by overcoming a 10-point deficit and beating No. 7 Tennessee on Saturday.

How do you rank the teams that all have quality wins against each other?

Well, who has the worst losses of that bunch?

There are still challenges ahead for parts of the SEC as it tries to sort itself out a bit more. As of now I'm projecting the following:

9. Ole Miss
10. Georgia
11. Alabama
12. Boise State

College Football Playoff Projections - Bracket

First Round Byes:

1. Ohio State
2. Texas
3. SMU
4. Colorado

First Round Games:

5. Oregon vs. 12. Boise State
6. Penn State vs. 11. Alabama
7. Notre Dame vs. 10. Georgia
8. Indiana vs. 9. Ole Miss

Second Round Games:

1. Ohio State vs. 9. Ole Miss
4. Colorado vs. 5. Oregon
3. SMU vs. 6. Penn State
2. Texas vs. 7. Notre Dame

Semi-Final Games

1. Ohio State vs. 5. Oregon
2. Texas vs. 6. Penn State

National Championship

5. Oregon over 2. Texas

Nick Shepkowski's Quick Thought:

Nov 16, 2024; Provo, Utah, USA; Kansas Jayhawks wide receiver Luke Grimm (11) runs for a first down against Brigham Young Cougars cornerback Jakob Robinson (0) and linebacker Isaiah Glasker (16) during the third quarter at LaVell Edwards Stadium. / Rob Gray-Imagn Images

Notre Dame getting to the top six seeds would be huge but can it get by Penn State as the Nittany Lions will be heavily favored in their remaining games. The most fascinating thing for me is how the log jam of SEC teams with two losses will be ranked this Tuesday. You can make a case for any of them in just about any order, but what will the committe actually do?

The biggest part of BYU's loss in terms of impact on the CFP is that is almost certainly guarantees that only the Big 12 champion will make the playoff from the conference.

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