College Football Playoff Projections Following Epic Week 6

Five of the nation's top 11 ranked teams fell Saturday: What does it mean for the College Football Playoff outlook?

Vanderbilt Commodores linebacker Jeffrey Ugochukwu (12) celebrates after knocking off the Alabama Crimson Tide 40-35 at Vanderbilt Stadium in Nashville, Tenn., Saturday, Oct. 5, 2024. / Denny Simmons / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Saturday was one of those days of college football that you remember for an extremely long time. Despite there not appearing to be a true marquee contest, five teams ranked in the top 11 of the Associated Press poll were upset.

No. 1 Alabama lost to Vanderbilt for the first time in 40 years while previously unbeaten Tennessee was knocked off at Arkansas. Elsewhere, Missouri, Michigan, and USC all went on the road and lost as well.

So what in the world does the 12-team College Football Playoff look like following an epic Saturday of College Football?

Whew boy, this one is an absolute doozie.

College Football Playoff Projection: Top Four Seeds

Oct 5, 2024; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day looks at his players before the game against the Iowa Hawkeyes on Saturday. / Samantha Madar/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

After No. 1 Alabama was stunned at Vanderbilt, chaos has come across the four projected conference champions.

With how Oregon has looked so far, an untested Ohio State seems like the safest bet to run the table in a major conference while not yet holding a loss. Texas has a tough road but sits in the best spot in the SEC, while Clemson appears to be the best in the ACC and Iowa State's case is at worst as good as anyone else's in the Big 12.

1. Ohio State
2. Texas
3. Clemson
4. Iowa State

College Football Playoff Projections: 5-8

Georgia head coach Kirby Smart celebrates with Georgia running back Trevor Etienne (1) during the second half of a NCAA college football game against Auburn in Athens, Ga., on Saturday, Oct. 5, 2024. / Joshua L. Jones / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Who emerges in this second pack of teams? The remaining schedule for each comes into play here and it's not easy for any of them. I don't think Oregon is the best of this bunch but I do think Oregon has the best path to finishing the regular season with just one loss of these. That's why they get the five-seed, even though I do think they lose at home next week to Ohio State.

Alabama has to to go to Tennessee and LSU both still while Georgia still has dates with Texas, Ole Miss, and Tennessee. Anything but easy sledding for those two.

Penn State should have an incredibly favorable schedule considering what USC did Saturday, but with that in mind it is also probably wise to put the Nittany Lions on major upset alert going into next week.

5. Oregon
6. Alabama
7. Georgia
8. Penn State

College Football Playoff Projections: 9-12 (Let's Get Crazy)

Oct 5, 2024; College Station, Texas, USA; Texas A&M Aggies defensive lineman Albert Regis (17) and linebacker Scooby Williams (0) stop Missouri Tigers running back Marcus Carroll (9) in the fourth quarter at Kyle Field. / Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

Miami was bailed out by a generous call for a second week in a row, ultimately sneaking by Cal. What I do know is that at this point I feel safe in saying Clemson is the best team in the ACC.

Notre Dame is hardly anything but safe from another upset but if anyone won this week it was the Fighting Irish. Texas A&M looks like a bigger win now (more on the Aggies in moments) and the remaining schedule for Notre Dame only looks better after this weekend.

Texas A&M had a huge blowout victory over Missouri but its remaining schedule is very favorable. Its only ranked games remaining are against LSU and Texas, but both at home. 10 wins is looking very realistic for the Aggies.

In a race that is still plenty open, Boise State seems to have the upper hand in Group of Five programs at the CFP spot. If you haven't watched Ashton Jeanty yet, go do yourself a favor a do so immediately. The young man is having a Barry Sanders at Oklahoma State type season.

9. Miami
10. Notre Dame
11. Texas A&M
12. Boise State

As for Tennessee: Saturday night's loss against Arkansas spoiled what had set up perfectly for them. The Vols would have almost certainly been in the dance with a 10-2 regular season mark but do you trust them to beat one of Alabama and Georgia? The same case can be made for Alabama beating Tennessee, I get it...

Also be on the lookout for Indiana. No, that isn't a joke. The Hoosiers are 6-0 and have what is looking like a more favorable schedule by the week.

That just speaks to how earth-shaking Saturday was for the 2024 college football season.

College Football Playoff Projections: Entire Bracket

First Round Byes:
1. Ohio State
2. Texas
3. Clemson
4. Iowa State

First Round Games:
5. Oregon vs. 12. Boise State
6. Alabama vs. 11. Texas A&M
7. Georgia vs. 10. Notre Dame
8. Penn State vs. 9. Miami

Second Round Games:
1. Ohio State vs. 8. Penn State
4. Iowa State vs. 5. Oregon
3. Clemson vs. 6. Alabama
2. Texas vs. 7. Georgia

National Semi-Finals:
1. Ohio State vs. 5. Oregon
6. Alabama vs. 7. Georgia

National Championship:
1. Ohio State over 7. Georgia

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