College Football Playoff Projections: Key Takeaways from an Exciting Week 7

Is Notre Dame going to host a home game and is Alabama even going to make the dance?

Oregon Ducks quarterback Dillon Gabriel and Oregon Ducks running back Jordan James celebrate a touchdown by Gabriel as the No. 3 Oregon Ducks host the No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes Saturday, Oct. 12, 2024 at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Ore. / Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Before the 2024 college football season started, Week 7 appeared to be one of those special weekends. Even on the heels of an all-time crazy week last week, it didn't disappoint as wild finishes, upsets and heartbreakers were again the story across college football.

Oregon beat Ohio State in a thriller as Eugene came undone celebrating. Texas rolled Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry, scoring 34-straight points against the Sooners. And Alabama barely survived against South Carolina, one week after falling to Vanderbilt.

What impact did the excitement of Week 7 have on the College Football Playoff?

Here is the latest projection following another thrilling Saturday.

College Football Playoff Projection: Top Four Seeds

Texas Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers (3) puts on the Golden Hat Trophy after the 34-3 win against Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry game at the Cotton Bowl on Saturday, Oct. 12, 2024 in Dallas, Texas. / Ricardo B. Brazziell/American-Statesman / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

I have a very good feeling I know what the AP and Coaches Polls will look like Sunday but we're discussing two different things here. One is about the rankings right this very minute while the other (this) is about projecting what happens.

With that in mind, as great and exciting as Oregon's win was Saturday night, is anyone outside of Eugene picking them to win a likely rematch against the Buckeyes in Indianapolis?

Projected 1-4 Seeds:

1. Texas
2. Ohio State
3. Clemson
4. Iowa State

College Football Playoff Projections: 5-8

The Oregon Ducks surfs the crowd after the football team defeated Ohio State at Autzen Stadium Saturday, Oct. 12, 2024. / Chris Pietsch/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The second pack of teams gets a bit challenging.

Oregon has an incredibly favorable schedule left and I think it makes it to the Big Ten Championship game unbeaten, but I have trouble right now seeing it beat Ohio State on a neutral field.

Alabama sat at No. 6 last week but after a poor showing against South Carolina this week, I'm losing trust in the Crimson Tide in a big way. This coming week at Tennessee feels like a potential elimination game as a trip to Baton Rouge still remains for the Tide, too.

Meanwhile Notre Dame dominated Stanford and Penn State overcame a challenging travel schedule to get by USC. So who will host the four first-round playoff games?

Projected 5-8 Seeds:

5. Oregon
6. Notre Dame
7. Penn State
8. Miami

College Football Playoff Projections: 9-12 (Up for Grabs!)

Remember the scene in The Dark Knight when the Joker is looking for a new bad guy to join his team so he locks two potential recruits in a room, breaks a pool stick in half, and tells them to fight for the position?

That's exactly what is going on with the SEC and spots 9-11 as things sit right now.

Alabama looks like it could lose three games with what it has left and how its playing.

The same goes for Tennessee after nearly falling at home to a struggling Florida team on Saturday night and having Alabama coming to town next week.

Georgia has to go to Texas next week and has games with Ole Miss and Tennessee still to come as well.

Texas A&M and LSU have each other to play while the Aggies have a remaining date with Texas and LSU plays host to Alabama later on.

And for good measure, assume Indiana gets by Nebraska next week and manages to go 5-1 on the back half with its only loss coming against Ohio State. Then what do we do?

In other words: BUCKLE UP.

Projected 9-12 Seeds:

9. Georgia
10. Texas A&M
11. LSU
12. Boise State

College Football Playoff Projections: Entire Bracket

First Round Byes:
1. Texas
2. Ohio State
3. Clemson
4. Iowa State

First Round Games:
5. Oregon vs. 12. Boise State
6. Notre Dame vs. 11. LSU
7. Penn State vs. 10. Texas A&M
8. Miami vs. 9. Georgia

Second Round Games:
1. Texas vs. 9. Georgia
4. Iowa State vs. 5. Oregon
3. Clemson vs. 6. Notre Dame
2. Ohio State vs. 7. Penn State

National Semi-Finals:
1. Texas vs. 5. Oregon
2. Ohio State vs. 6. Notre Dame

National Championship:
1. Texas over 2. Ohio State

Nick Shepkowski's Quick Take:

Man alive, I have to come clean and apologize.

I was critical of the expanded College Football Playoff for a very long time and thought it would kill the drama of the regular season. Sure, there are going to be some very good storylines with quality teams and players that don't get followed as much nationally because of the lack of playoff impact this fall, but the drama here is crazy.

Who comes out of the SEC? You could throw a dart trying to pick it at this point and have as good of luck as if you made your most educated guess.

I still am a huge believer in Ohio State, although it does tend to not do well in huge games under Ryan Day. What I've seen so far has left me most impressed with Texas out of anyone but as I sit here in the early hours of October 13 I feel anything but great about picking the national champions this year, something I certainly couldn't have said the majority of the last 15 years.

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