College Football Roundup - Pac 12 Falls In Week 11 Action

The Pac 12 had a rough weekend when it comes to its College Football Playoff opportunities

We all know that one friend. He’s always making us laugh. He’s up late at night and there for us when we need some company. He has a heart of gold and so much potential – but when it comes to his personal life, he just can’t get out of his own way.

In college football, that friend is the Pac-12.

The self-described “conference of champions” has not sent a team to the College Football Playoff since Washington in 2016, but entered play this weekend with 4 teams in the top 13 of the CFP rankings. However, those aforementioned Huskies took down the sixth-ranked Oregon Ducks in a thrilled in Eugene, and then after those living east of the Rockies were snug in their beds, Arizona took down #12 UCLA in the Rose Bowl.

Heading into the second-to-last weekend of the regular season, USC is the only remaining Pac-12 team with one loss and still alive for the CFP, but lost RB Travis Dye to a devastating knee injury in Friday night’s win over Colorado. The Trojans already had arguably the most challenging closing stretch in the country, with rivalry games against UCLA and Notre Dame before the Pac-12 Championship, and now they’ll have to do it without their leading rusher.

Elsewhere around the country on a wild weekend, TCU took a giant step toward the CFP, Alabama avoided a second-straight regular season loss for the first time since 2007 (clinching the SEC West for LSU), Notre Dame survived Navy, Clemson rebounded with a strong win over Louisville, and UCF seized control of the race for the Group of Five’s CFP berth.

To recap this – and plenty more – let’s get to the Week 11 action.

WASHINGTON 37, OREGON 34

Michael Penix Jr. threw for 408 yards and 2 touchdowns and Peyton Henry made a 43-yard field goal with 51 seconds left to lift Washington to a dramatic victory over rival Oregon and end the Ducks’ hopes of the College Football Playoff.

It looked like Oregon had taken control of the game in the second half. Bo Nix hit Troy Franklin for a 67-yard touchdown pass to give the Ducks a 31-27 lead with 3:40 left in the third quarter. Washington answered with a 98-yard drive, but Penix was picked off in the end zone. Off the turnover, Oregon marched on a 10-minute, 20-play, 91-yard drive but the Dawg defense stiffened in the red zone, forcing an Oregon field goal to extend the lead to 34-27.

However, Penix hit Taj Davis for a 62-yard touchdown to tie the game, and after Oregon turned the ball over on downs in their own territory (on a questionable decision by head coach Dan Lanning), Henry hit the game winner, denying Oregon a victory in a game where they raced up 32 first downs, 592 yards of total offense, and 312 rushing yards.

ALABAMA 30, MISSISSIPPI 24

The Crimson Tide avoided back-to-back regular season losses for the first time since Nick Saban’s first season with a comeback victory over Ole Miss in Oxford. Alabama trailed 17-7 late in the first half, but Bryce Young found Cameron Latu with 8 seconds remaining to pull the Tide to 17-14 at the break.

Alabama tied the score with a Will Reichard field goal on the first drive of the second half, but the Rebels answered with a touchdown drive to take a 24-17 lead. After that drive, though, the Alabama defense took over. Ole Miss had 4 more drives that netted only 86 total yards, resulting in 2 punts and 2 turnovers on down.

The Alabama victory clinched the SEC West for LSU, but both Alabama and Ole Miss remain in the hunt for a New Years’ Six bowl berth. Alabama closes with a second bye week against Austin Peay before the Iron Bowl against Auburn, while Ole Miss travels to Arkansas next week before wrapping up with the Egg Bowl against Mississippi State on Thanksgiving.

TCU 17, TEXAS 10

Texas came into the matchup with TCU averaging 192.4 rushing YPG on the season with the dual-headed monster of Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson pacing the Horns. Furthermore, since QB Quinn Ewers had returned from injury against Oklahoma and given Texas a passing threat, the rushing attack had averaged 240.0 YPG. That changed on Saturday, as TCU dominated Texas in the trenches, holding the Longhorns to just 28 yards rushing on 22 carries.

Like Oklahoma State did in the Cowboys’ 41-34 victory over Texas, TCU forced Ewers to beat them, and again, he wasn’t consistent enough to deliver, completing just 17 of 39 passes for 171 yards with an interception. The Longhorns couldn’t even muster an offensive touchdown, with their only touchdown coming on a fumble return late in the fourth quarter.

TCU’s Kendre Miller continued his strong season with 138 yards rushing and a touchdown and has been the unsung hero for this team during their 10-0 start. If this TCU defense can continue playing at this level over the next three weeks, the Horned Frogs are going to crash the CFP in Sonny Dykes’ first season in Fort Worth.

McDONOUGH’S MUSINGS

~As Marcus Freeman continues to grow as a head coach, he and his staff need to figure out how to maximize halftime adjustments. The Irish need to get better at using halftime to either build on positive momentum or stem negative momentum from the first half heading into the second. On Saturday, after the Notre Dame started fast and took a 35-13 lead into halftime against Navy, they lacked intensity in the second half and the game plan – especially offensively – did not put players in a position to succeed. This has been a theme this season for Notre Dame unfortunately. As you can see in the below table, the Irish have been a strong first half team – especially on this streak where they have won 6 of the past 7 games – but on the season in the second half are averaging fewer points while surrendering almost a touchdown more on average.

Note – Notre Dame score listed first

~ Over the past decade, the SEC West has been universally known as the toughest division in the country. However, this year, the SEC West has been objectively mediocre – and no, that’s not “because they have to play other SEC teams”. LSU will represent the SEC West in Atlanta, meaning the SEC West champion is a team that lost to Florida State, got blown out 40-13 by Tennessee, and was lucky to survive Auburn and Arkansas. There’s no question that this year the balance of power in the SEC has shifted back east.

• LSU (8-2, 6-1) – Lost 24-23 to Florida State (on a blocked PAT) and then 40-13 at home against Tennessee.
• Alabama (8-2, 5-2) – Lost to Tennessee and LSU, barely survived against Texas, Texas A&M, and Mississippi.
• Mississippi (8-2, 4-2) – Blew double-digit leads in losses against LSU and Alabama.
• Mississippi State (6-4, 3-4) – Performing about as expected, but non-competitive in games against Georgia and Alabama.
• Arkansas (5-5, 2-4) – Has seen a top-10 ranking in September evaporate while losing 5 of 7, including a home loss to Liberty.
• Auburn (4-6, 2-5) – Fired coach Bryan Harsin, but is at least playing harder the past couple weeks.
• Texas A&M (1-6, 3-7) – Will miss a bowl due to a (current) 6-game losing streak, including this weekend against Auburn. There’s also that home loss to Appalachian State. Jimbo Fisher better hope there’s not a slow start against UMass next week.

~ One of the things that stood out during Oregon’s 8-game winning streak was Dan Lanning’s aggressiveness. For instance, during Oregon’s dominant 45-30 win over UCLA, the Ducks went 3 for 3 on fourth-down conversions, extending drives and keeping the Bruin offense off the field. However, in Saturday’s loss to Washington, Lanning made the decision to go for it on 4th and 1 at his own 34-yard line with just 1:26 remaining. RB Noah Whittington lost a yard and despite going three-and-out, Washington was already in position to kick the game-winning 43-yard field goal. Had the Ducks punted and gone to overtime, you have to think they would have been favored due to the Autzen Stadium crowd and their punishing rushing attack well-suited to the red zone.

~ In all likelihood, the Group of Five representative in the New Years’ Six (the Cotton Bowl) will come from either the American or Mountain West conferences. Each of those conferences has some really intriguing games coming up over the next two weeks.

• American Conference
• UCF, Cincinnati, and Tulane are tied for first place with 5-1 conference records (Knights have the tiebreaker), with SMU and Houston sitting at 4-2.
• Week 12
• SMU at #21Tulane
• Navy at #17 UCF
• Houston at East Carolina
• #22 Cincinnati at Temple
• Week 13
• #21 Tulane at #22 Cincinnati
• #17 UCF at South Florida
• Memphis at SMU
• Tulsa at Houston

• Mountain West Conference
• Boise State (the only possible CFB participant, currently receiving votes in the AP and Coaches’ polls) leads the Mountain Division at 6-0 with Wyoming sitting in second place at 5-1 and Utah State in third place at 4-2.
• Week 12
• Boise State at Wyoming
• Week 13
• Utah State at Boise State

STOCK UP

~ The Downtrodden – I have to give a shout out to 2 teams who aren’t typically associated with winning – Vanderbilt and UConn. Clark Lea’s Commodores ended a 26-game SEC losing streak (that started before we had ever heard of Covid-19) with a 26-24 win over Kentucky. A bowl bid is still probably a long-short for the Commodores with Florida and Tennessee left on the schedule, but that’s not the case for the UConn Huskies, who clinched a bowl berth with a dramatic comeback win over Liberty. Jim Mora for coach of the year?

~ TCU – Despite being doubted every step of the way, the Horned Frogs continue to win. TCU closed as a 7.5-point underdog at Texas yet controlled the entire game against the Longhorns. The Frogs never trailed and did not even allow Texas to score an offensive touchdown. TCU has a road trip to Baylor, home game against Iowa State, and then the Big 12 Championship Game remaining. With how the committee has treated TCU to this point, the Frogs do control their own destiny but – as the 2014 team can attest – a one-loss TCU team is not guaranteed a playoff spot.

~ UCF – The John Rhys Plumlee redemption tour continued in a massive 38-31 victory at Tulane that gave the Knights control of the American Conference and the inside track to the New Year’s Six. Plumlee threw for 132 yards and a touchdown and rushed for 176 yards and 2 scores to put up 38 points against what had been the top scoring defense in the American. Plumlee is the type of player you root for and an example of why the transfer portal – if done right – is a good thing. He tried to get on the field any way he could the past 3 seasons at Ole Miss, playing quarterback as a freshman before moving to wide receiver the past 2 seasons, but then when an opportunity presented itself in Orlando, he took it and has made the most of it.

~ North Carolina – I’m going to take a bit of a humble brag victory lap because back in the Week 7 roundup I listed QB Drake Maye as one of my Heisman contenders, well before the national media had caught on to how much of a star the Tar Heel QB is. In Saturday’s dramatic 36-34 victory on the road at Wake Forest, Maye threw for 448 yards and 3 touchdowns and added another 71 yards and a score on the ground. This UNC team will be favored to head to the ACC Championship Game against Clemson at 11-1 and with Maye and WR Josh Downs, will present a huge challenge to an inconsistent Clemson secondary.

~ LSU – The Tigers won ugly on Saturday, outlasting Arkansas 13-10 on the road, and with the Ole Miss loss to Alabama, clinched a spot in the SEC Championship Game against Georgia on December 3rd. LSU has massively overachieved in Brian Kelly’s first season, and though the Tigers will be heavy underdogs against Georgia, a New Years’ Six bowl bid would be a huge accomplishment for a team that fielded just 39 scholarship players in last season’s bowl game against Kansas State. Most encouraging for LSU has to be that they won a game on Saturday in which star QB Jayden Daniels accounted for just 96 yards of total offense and no touchdowns.

STOCK DOWN

~ The CFP Ranking Middle Class – It was a rough Saturday for many of the teams ranked from #16 to #25 in the Week 11 CFP rankings, with half of these teams losing, 4 of the 5 to lower ranked or unranked opponents, and all at home:

• #16 NC State – lost 21-20 at home to Boston College
• #17 Tulane – lost 38-31 at home to UCF
• #18 Texas – lost 17-10 at home to TCU
• #21 Illinois – lost 31-24 at home to Purdue
• #24 Kentucky – lost 26-24 at home to Vanderbilt

~ Maryland – After averaging 34.1 PPG en route to a 6-2 start, Maryland has been lifeless on offense the past two weeks, scoring a combined 10 points in losses to Wisconsin and Penn State. On Saturday, the Terrapins were shut out 30-0 by a Nittany Lion defense that was last seen nationally fading in the fourth quarter against Ohio State. Maryland put up just 134 yards of offense, surrendered 7 sacks and 9 TFLs, and saw its 12 drives end with 9 punts and 3 turnovers on down. Ohio State visits College Park next week, and that one could get ugly.

~ Syracuse – The Orange don’t seem to have any juice left, as a 6-0 start has fizzled with 4 consecutive losses, each seemingly more disheartening than the last. Remember, this is a Syracuse team that went into the Clemson game undefeated, led for much of the game, and had the ball with a chance to win at the end. On Saturday, Syracuse lost 38-3 at home against Florida State, gaining just 9 first downs on 160 yards of offense while allowing the Seminoles to rush for 230 yards and possess the ball for more than 36 minutes. Road games against Wake Forest and Boston College remain for a team that has seen its bowl prospects plummet in the past month.

~ Baylor – The Bears had ripped off 3 consecutive victories and had fought back into a tie for second place in the Big 12 but were completely dominated at home by Kansas State in a 31-3 loss. QB Blake Shapen threw 2 interceptions, the Baylor defense couldn’t get off the field (allowing Kansas State to have 37:37 time of possession), and Dave Aranda’s insistence on going for fourth downs (the Bears were 0-3) put his defense at a disadvantage, such as going for it at his own 19-yard-line in the third quarter, giving Kansas State an easy touchdown to put the game out of reach.

~ Kentucky – Yeah, I’m piling on the Wildcats with a double mention in this section. That’s what you get when you lose at home to a Vanderbilt team that had lost 26 consecutive SEC games. QB Will Levis – projected by many to be a first-round pick – has been a complete non-factor since getting banged up against Ole Miss in Kentucky’s first loss of the season. Prior to the Ole Miss game during Kentucky’s 4-0 start, Levis had averaged 296.3 passing YPG with 10 touchdowns against just 4 interceptions. Since then, the Wildcats are just 2-4, and Levis has averaged just 165.4 passing YPG to go with 6 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. The Wildcats wrap up with home games against Georgia and archrival Louisville, neither of which will be easy.

BEST GAMES OF WEEK 12

Note – AP rankings used, since they reflect this weekend’s results

• SMU at #21 Tulane, 7:30 PM, ESPN (Thursday)
• Navy at #17 UCF, 11 AM, ESPN2
• Illinois at #3 Michigan, 12 PM, ABC
• #4 TCU at Baylor, 12 PM, FOX
• Boston College at #18 Notre Dame, 2:30 PM, NBC
• #1 Georgia at Kentucky, 3:30 PM, CBS
• #2 Ohio State at Maryland, 3:30 PM, ABC
• Boise State at Wyoming, 7 PM, CBSSN
• #14 Ole Miss at Arkansas, 7:30 PM, SECN
• #24 Oklahoma State at Oklahoma, 7:30 PM, ABC
• #7 USC at #16 UCLA, 8 PM, FOX
• #10 Utah at #12 Oregon, 10:30 PM, ESPN

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