College Football Roundup: Another Shake Up Saturday During Week Five

Week five was once again full of upsets and outcomes that shook up college football

There was always a feeling that the 2021 college football season could be crazy, with the impact of the disjointed 2020 season, the granting of all players a free season of eligibility, and the elimination of the requirement to sit a season after transferring all playing a factor. However, I’m not sure that anyone predicted this much chaos so early in the season – and each week seems to get wilder than the last.

This weekend, four top-ten teams lost, Michigan and Cincinnati stepped forward as College Football Playoff contenders, the playoff hopes of a second conference took a major hit, and as much as we have talked about parity in this space this season, Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide said “not so fast, my friend” (though the Georgia Bulldogs could have something to say about that).

#7 CINCINNATI at #9 NOTRE DAME

Cincinnati took a major step toward becoming the first-ever participant from the Group of Five in the College Football Playoff with a 24-13 victory over Notre Dame in South Bend. The Bearcats turned short fields from two Notre Dame turnovers into 10 points en route to a 17-0 halftime lead, and then survived a second half Notre Dame rally led by QB Drew Pyne, who replaced Jack Coan at halftime. Cincinnati QB Desmond Ridder backed up his pregame trash talk by throwing for almost 300 yards and accounting for 3 total TDs. The Bearcats will be heavy favorites in all remaining games against AAC opponents, and it will be very interesting to see where they are ranked in the initial CFP rankings.

For Notre Dame, the loss represents a giant missed opportunity – given the weakness of the remaining Irish schedule – and further underscores fundamental concerns in the program around player development on the offensive line and in the wide receiving corps. Notre Dame again finished with under 100 yards rushing, and the line surrendered 2 sacks and 7 TFLs against a Bearcat defense that though stout, does not have the athletes nor size that should allow them to stymie the Irish offense for 60 minutes. Notre Dame must regroup for a tricky road game at Virginia Tech before a bye week.

#8 ARKANSAS at #2 GEORGIA

Cinderella’s glass slipper shattered on Saturday, as Arkansas’ visit to Athens turned into a 37-0 reality check for the Hogs. Georgia staked its claim as the nation’s top defense, holding Arkansas to only 75 rushing yards – almost 200 yards below their season average – and just 162 total yards and 3-12 third down conversions overall. Georgia completely took Arkansas WRs Treylon Burks and Tyson Morris out of the game, as they combined for only 4 catches for 19 yards.

The biggest question mark for Georgia moving forward is whether they have enough offense to keep up with Alabama, who they appear on a collision course with in the SEC Championship Game. The Dawg offense on Saturday was effective, but not explosive. With QB JT Daniels out with a rib injury, Georgia only threw for 72 yards, preferring instead to control the clock through the running game. Georgia ended up with 273 yards rushing and over 36 minutes time of possession, but even while scoring 37 points, amassed only 345 total yards and went just 4-12 on third down.

#12 OLE MISS at #1 ALABAMA

Speaking of Alabama, the Crimson Tide jumped out to a 35-0 lead and completely buried Ole Miss, eventually winning 42-21. RB Brian Robinson Jr. rushed for 171 yards and 4 TDs, and QB Bryce Young played another efficient game, completing 77% of his passes for 241 yards and 2 TDs, as Nick Saban moved to 24-0 against former assistants with the victory over Lane Kiffin’s team.

Ole Miss had its chance at the beginning of the game but saw three drives stall deep in Alabama territory on failed fourth down conversions. After that, the Tide defense was able to adjust and completely shut the Rebels down. Ole Miss came into the game averaging 635 yards of offense (including almost 300 on the ground), but was held to just 291 total yards, with only 78 yards rushing on 34 carries – a 2.3 YPC average – as the Ole Miss offense was unable to sustain drives. Even though the Rebel defense is better this season, any game that results in Alabama possessing the ball for 37:59 is going to result in surrendering points.

McDONOUGH’S MUSINGS

• Oregon’s loss to Stanford was absolutely devastating to the Pac-12 conference, as the Ducks’ playoff hopes took a major blow. Per ESPN, Oregon had a 99.9% win probability with 1:51 remaining in the fourth quarter, but allowed Stanford to mount an 87-yard drive to tie the game before losing in overtime. That long Stanford touchdown drive was aided by three crucial, controversial penalties, including a targeting foul that resulted in the ejection of All-American DE Kayvon Thibodeaux, and a borderline defensive holding call in the end zone as time expired that gave Stanford an untimed down, that they scored on. If the Ducks end up missing out on the CFP, these controversial penalties will be a big reason why.

• Even though we are five weeks into the season, I don’t think anyone really has any idea as to who the four best teams in the country are – after Alabama and Georgia, there’s at least a half dozen other teams who could make an argument to be in that conversation, and this is one of the reasons that eventual playoff expansion – if done correctly – will be good for the sport. I think expanding to 12 teams is the best course of action because regular season success is still rewarded (with a bye) and 12 teams would allow the first round of games to be played on campus while the quarterfinals and semifinals are played at the “New Years Six” bowl sites. Then, the championship game can rotate to different NFL stadiums.

• When I was a student at Notre Dame, one of my biggest frustrations on game day was that I didn’t feel that Notre Dame Stadium was as loud and intimidating an environment as it should have been. However, it seems that things have gotten even worse, as not only is the noise level from ND fans not what it has been in the past, but visiting teams are “taking over” Notre Dame Stadium. Now, it’s one thing for a massive fanbase like Nebraska or Georgia to bring tens of thousands of fans, but the fact that so many Notre Dame season ticket holders put their tickets to a top-ten matchup against Cincinnati on the open market is disheartening. I know the color red “pops” on TV, but you can’t explain away the noise that the Irish offense was facing any time they walked on the field. The Notre Dame administration needs to take a look in the mirror and figure out a way to make a Notre Dame game more accessible to the average Irish fan, because I have no expectation of season ticket holders changing their behavior. I’d also remind those who would say “well, if the product on the field was better, it would be a crazier environment”, that the Irish just had a home winning streak of 26 games and are coming off a playoff appearance.

• Though some of the shine came off Week 6 due to losses by Notre Dame, Arkansas, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M, it still will be a massive weekend of college football. Here are some key storylines to keep an eye on:
• Can Iowa’s defense stop a talented and diverse Nittany Lion offense? If so, the Hawkeyes will be heavy favorites the rest of the way against what is a weaker-than-expected Big Ten West.
• Can Texas A&M and the 12th Man put Alabama to the test? In Alabama’s only other road game this year, the Tide barely hung on against Florida. Texas A&M has been one of the most disappointing teams in the country this year, but Jimbo Fisher was hired to beat Alabama, and the Aggies have had this game circled on the calendar for a year.
• Can the Oklahoma offense build on this weekend’s success in the annual Red River Rivalry? Oklahoma put up 37 points and QB Spencer Rattler completed 88% of his passes this weekend, but Texas presents a different challenge than Kansas State.
• Is this season going to be more like 2014 or 2019 for Notre Dame? In both seasons, Notre Dame had a talented but flawed team, but there were two very different outcomes. In 2014, the Irish stared 6-0 and ascended to #5 in the country before a heartbreaking loss to a top-ten team (Florida State) caused a late season tailspin and 8-5 finish. However, in 2019, the Irish rallied from a disappointing loss at Michigan to a 6-0 finish to end the season at 11-2. First opponent for the Irish after the Michigan loss? Virginia Tech – who ND faces on Saturday.

BIGGEST WINNERS OF THE WEEKEND

• The SEC and Big Ten: Oregon’s loss to Stanford leaves the Pac-12 without an undefeated team and Notre Dame’s loss to Cincinnati likely eliminated the Irish from playoff contention. The SEC and Big Ten currently hold the top 4 spots in the AP poll, and there is a path for each conference to get multiple bids. Best case scenario for the SEC? Georgia and Alabama are undefeated heading into the SEC title game. Best case scenario for the Big Ten? Iowa defeats Penn State on Saturday and then beats an undefeated Michigan team (who in this scenario would hold victories over Ohio State, Penn State, and Michigan State). Iowa would be undefeated, and Michigan would likely have a strong enough resume to get the nod over Cincinnati or anyone else.

• Oklahoma State: The Cowboys continued their impressive start to the season with a 24-14 win over previously unbeaten Baylor to move to 5-0. The formula this season is different for Oklahoma State – rather than running a pass-heavy offense, the Cowboys are leaning on the running game and defense. RB Jaylen Warren ran for 125 yards and 2 TDs and Oklahoma State’s defense held Baylor to only 280 total yards. Oklahoma State has a bye before visiting Texas, and if the Cowboys can get through that game, they have a legitimate shot to be undefeated heading into the Thanksgiving weekend Bedlam game with rival Oklahoma in Stillwater.

• Kentucky: The Wildcats earned their first home victory over Florida in 35 years on Saturday with a 20-13 win. It wasn’t pretty, as the Wildcats used a blocked FG returned for a touchdown and a late goal line stand to seal the victory, but it counts just the same. Mark Stoops has quietly done a really good job building a solid program in Lexington, and at 5-0, Kentucky is the top contender to Georgia in the SEC East.

• Michigan: On an emotional weekend in Madison when Wisconsin dedicated the field at Camp Randall Stadium to former head coach and athletic director Barry Alvarez, Michigan exorcised some red and white demons and won at Wisconsin for the first time in over a decade. Michigan entered the game as the top rushing offense in the Big Ten, but was held to only 112 yards rushing on 2.5 YPC against a stout Badger front. However, QB Cade McNamara had arguably the best game of his young career, throwing for 197 yards and 2 TDs to lead the Wolverine offense. If McNamara can build on that passing success to go along with the strong Michigan rushing attack, this team can make some noise in the Big Ten.

BIGGEST LOSERS OF THE WEEKEND

• The Pac-12: Oregon’s victory over Ohio State in Week 2 positioned the Pac-12 for its first playoff berth since 2016, especially when the ACC was all but eliminated last week with Clemson’s second loss. However, the Pac-12’s penchant for cannibalizing its own reared its head again on Saturday, as the Ducks fell on the road at Stanford in a game marked by questionable officiating. Oregon still owns an impressive road win over Ohio State, but the Ducks will need help to get back into the CFP discussion. With Oregon’s loss, the Pac-12 has no remaining undefeated teams.

• Notre Dame: NBC showed a graphic during the telecast of Notre Dame’s loss to Cincinnati that said Notre Dame’s win probability against all remaining opponents was at least 80% (per PFF). That makes Saturday’s loss to Cincinnati even more of a missed opportunity for the Irish. Beat the Bearcats and Notre Dame has the inside track to a second consecutive playoff berth. However, with the loss, the Irish are out of the playoff discussion and without a conference title to play for, may need to start letting some younger players get more experience this year to prepare for a brutal 2022 schedule that includes games against Ohio State and Clemson.

• Boston College: The Eagles dropped their first game of the season with a 19-13 loss at Clemson. The Tigers recovered a fumble on a mishandled snap by BC QB Dennis Grosel as the Eagles were driving late in the fourth quarter to preserve the narrow victory. This game was a chance for Boston College to assert itself as the team to beat in the ACC Atlantic, and the Eagles had multiple opportunities to win the game but lost the turnover battle 3-0 and committed 10 penalties – not the recipe for success against a more talented opponent.

• Maryland: Friday night’s matchup against Iowa was a giant opportunity for Maryland and coach Mike Locksley to show the nation that this Maryland team was different than past versions that started fast but collapsed in conference play. Four quarters, seven turnovers, and a 51-14 loss to Iowa later, the Terrapins are left picking up the pieces with a trip to Ohio State looming next weekend.

BIGGEST GAMES OF WEEK 6

• #6 Oklahoma vs. #21 Texas, 12 PM, ABC
• #13 Arkansas at #17 Ole Miss, 12 PM, ESPN
• #2 Georgia at #18 Auburn, 3:30 PM, CBS
• #4 Penn State at #3 Iowa, 4 PM, FOX
• #14 Notre Dame at Virginia Tech, 7:30 PM, ACCN
• #1 Alabama at Texas A&M, 8 PM, CBS

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