Which AP Top 10 Preseason Team Will Disappoint and Finish Unranked?

There is almost always at least one that finishes the year unranked

Oct 14, 2023; South Bend, Indiana, USA; USC Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams (13) is tackled by Notre Dame Fighting Irish linebacker Jaylen Sneed (3) and defensive lineman Howard Cross III (56) in the fourth quarter at Notre Dame Stadium. Notre Dame won 48-20 / Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports

College football season starts officially in just 12 days when Florida State and Georgia Tech will battle in Ireland, and the countdown is fully on as one of the most anticipated years in the history of the sport nears.

For the first time the College Football Playoff expands to 12 teams. Combine that with the massive realignment that again took place across the sport this off-season, and we're about to see things we haven't seen in quite some time.

As much as things change though, they tend to stay the same.

The AP Poll released its preseason rankings on Monday and in it, Notre Dame ranked seventh.

How much do these preseason rankings matter?

For one, no team ranked outside the top six in the preseason since the College Football Playoff era began in 2014 has gone on to win a national championship.

However, in the last 22 years, only once has at least one preseason top 10 team finished the year unranked.

2023's Preseason Top 10 Victim

Oregon outside linebacker Teitum Tuioti sacks USC quarterback Caleb Williams as the No. 6 Oregon Ducks host the USC Trojans Saturday, Nov. 11, 2023, at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Ore. / Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK

Last season USC started the season ranked No. 6 in the AP Poll and a little over a month into the year that seem justified.

USC had some blips along the way but was 6-0 and ranked No. 10 nationally on October 14. That's when the Trojans traveled to Notre Dame, were railroaded by a 48-20 final score, and stumbled its way to an 8-5 overall finish which included a 38-20 defeat to crosstown rival UCLA.

USC finished the year unranked, just like 2022 preseason top-10's Oklahoma, Baylor, and Texas A&M did.

In 21 of the last 22 years, at least one team ranked in the AP Poll's preseason top 10 went on to finish the year unranked. It may not be a guarantee, but there is very good chance it happens again.

So who is the top contender to finish the year unranked of the 10?

Let's quickly examine each as we rank the top ten teams from least likely to most likely to finish outside the top 25.

10. Georgia

Georgia Bulldogs head coach Kirby Smart celebrates with his players and fans after their victory over Florida. The annual Georgia vs Florida football rivalry was held at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville, FL Saturday, October 29, 2022. The Bulldogs went in at halftime with a 28 to 3 lead over the Gators and won with a final score of 42 to 20. [Bob Self/Florida Times-Union / Bob Self/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK

Nick's Quick Thought: Simply put, Georgia is the best program going in college football right now (at least on the football field). The Bulldogs have won 42 of their last 44 games and have as talented and deep of roster as any in the country. I don't care how difficult of slate they have in 2024, I'll be extremely surprised if this team isn't playing in the final game of the season.

Chance of Finishing Outside Top 25: 0

9. Ohio State

Aug 8, 2024; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day address his team during football practice at the Woody Hayes Athletic Complex. / Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK

Nick's Quick Take: Ohio State has gotten pushed around by Michigan the last few years and it's safe to say the natives are sick of it. Ohio State invested as much as anyone in the transfer portal and coaching staff this off-season in hopes of retaking the Big Ten. Although I have questions about winning a national championship like they hope, Ohio State should safely make the College Football Playoff field as Ryan Day doesn't lose to inferior teams - like, ever.


Chance of Finishing Outside Top 25: 0.5%

8. Oregon

An inflatable of the University of Oregon Duck mascot floats on the White River in front of the NCAA Headquarters on Tuesday, July 23, 2024, in downtown Indianapolis. The float weighs in at 1,600 pounds and takes 1.5 hours to inflate. / Brett Phelps/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK

Nick's Quick Take: Don't let the cute duck mascot or nickname fool you, Big Ten fans. Head coach Dan Lanning is bringing an extremely talented but equally as physical team to the conference this year. Oregon is sick of hearing the "'O' represents national championships" thing from old Pac 12 rivals and has a team that can legitimately compete for one in 2024.


Chance of Finishing Outside Top 25: 5%

7. Alabama

The Alabama Crimson Tide football team works out Sunday morning in practice as they prepare for the 2024 season. Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe (4) listens to directions from Alabama head coach Kalen DeBoer. / Gary Cosby Jr.-Tuscaloosa News / USA TODAY NETWORK

Nick's Quick Take: Anytime you have to replace a legendary head coach like Alabama is doing this year there is reason for concern but get this about Kalen DeBoer, the guy who fills the shoes of Nick Saban: He's 104-12 all-time as a college football head coach and just had Washington playing in the national championship game after it finished just 4-8 in 2021. Translation: Alabama might not be as dynastic as it was under Saban, but Alabama will be just fine under Kalen DeBoer.


Chance of Finishing Outside Top 25: 10%

6. Texas

Texas Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisian greets Texas Longhorns defensive lineman Byron Murphy II (90) on senior night before the game against Texas Tech at Darrell K Royal Texas Memorial Stadium on Friday, Nov. 24, 2023. / Mikala Compton/American-Statesman / USA TODAY NETWORK

Nick's Quick Take: You can flip Alabama and Texas and you should be right in either case. Texas is fresh off a year it went to the four team College Football Playoff and gets generous welcome to the SEC with how the 2024 schedule shakes out. Expect Steve Sarkisian and Texas to be in the playoff again in 2024.


Chance of Finishing Outside Top 25: 12.5%

5. Penn State

Dec 30, 2023; Atlanta, GA, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions head coach James Franklin talks to a referee against the Mississippi Rebels in the second half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. / Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Nick's Quick Take: Penn State under James Franklin has turned into Notre Dame under Brian Kelly. The Nittany Lions will beat everyone they are supposed to on their schedule which makes them a fairly safe pick to make the College Football Playoff and finish in the top 10 in 2024. It however also gives them little chance to actually win one of these big games for a change.


Chance of Finishing Outside Top 25: 15%

4. Ole Miss

Dec 30, 2023; Atlanta, GA, USA; Mississippi Rebels head coach Lane Kiffin shown at the end of the game against the Penn State Nittany Lions during the second half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. / Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Nick's Quick Take: If Ohio State took home the gold medal for investments in the transfer portal ahead of the 2024 college football season, then Ole Miss was standing strong on the silver medal stand. The track record isn't there like it might be for other SEC programs, but a favorable SEC schedule blended with an improved roster from a team that went 11-2 last year makes the Rebels an understandable pick to make the College Football Playoff and an almost lock to not collapse and fall outside the top 25.


Chance of Finishing Outside Top 25: 17.7%

3. Notre Dame

Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman greets corner back Max Hurleman (37) during a Notre Dame football practice at Irish Athletic Center on Tuesday, Aug. 6, 2024, in South Bend. / MICHAEL CLUBB/SOUTH BEND TRIBUNE / USA TODAY NETWORK

Nick's Quick Take: Notre Dame's schedule should make for a worst-case scenario of 8-4 if everything goes completely south so there is a possibility here. Replacing two offensive tackles that went in the first two rounds of the NFL draft is certainly not easy, but a veteran defense that was already one of college football's best in 2023 should have Notre Dame being a College Football Playoff contender. With that said, until Marcus Freeman starts taking care of business regularly against the teams he should take care of business against (Marshall and Stanford in 2022, Louisville and Clemson in 2023) then the threat to disappoint is present.


Chance of Finishing Outside Top 25: 19.9%

2. Florida State

Florida State football players participate in day two of fall practice at the Albert J. Dunlap center on Friday, July 26, 2024 / Liam Rooney/Tallahassee Democrat / USA TODAY NETWORK

Nick's Quick Take: Florida State lost a slew of talent to the NFL draft and returns just four starters on both sides of the ball from last year's team that was hosed out of the College Football Playoff. transfer quarterback DJ Uiagalelei has been shaky at best in college after being touted as the next great Clemson signal caller. With Miami improved, a date with Clemson and at Notre Dame this year, mixed in with the weirdness traveling to Ireland to start the year causes, Florida State running the ACC again in 2024 is anything but a given.


Chance of Finishing Outside Top 25: 22%

1. Michigan

Michigan head coach Sherrone Moore watches a play during the second half of the spring game at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor on Saturday, April 20, 2024. / Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK

Nick's Quick Take: Michigan brings back what should be one of the nation's best defenses but there are a ton of questions here as the Wolverines have to replace an absurd 14 NFL draft picks, including a first-round quarterback. Dates with Texas, USC, and Oregon mixed with trips to both Washington and Ohio State make this schedule an absolute bear. If you want to make a couple bucks this fall then do yourself a favor and get in on the under in the Michigan win total.


Chance of Finishing Outside Top 25: 27.5%

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