Irish Breakdown

ESPN Computer Model Projects Orange Bowl Winner for Notre Dame vs. Penn State Showdown

Notre Dame and Penn State play on Thursday for a spot in the college football national championship

Nick Shepkowski

Jan 2, 2025; New Orleans, LA, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish head coach Marcus Freeman looks on from the sidelines against the Georgia Bulldogs during the first half at Caesars Superdome.
Jan 2, 2025; New Orleans, LA, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish head coach Marcus Freeman looks on from the sidelines against the Georgia Bulldogs during the first half at Caesars Superdome. / Amber Searls-Imagn Images
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Notre Dame and Penn State, two old rivals that met every regular season from 1981-1992, are set to renew their football rivalry in the 2025 Orange Bowl.

The stakes have never been bigger between the Fighting Irish and Nittany Lions as the winner of this one won't only take the edge in the all-time series (currently tied at 9-9-1 a piece) but will also clinch a spot in the national championship game.

ESPN updated its Football Power Index numbers after Notre Dame's impressive win over Georgia in the Sugar Bowl and ran its probability chart for the rest of the playoff.

Notre Dame, who FPI now ranks as the nation's third-best team, is given a slight edge over Penn State according to ESPN FPI.

ESPN FPI Odds for Orange Bowl:

Notre Dame Chances of Victory: 58.8%

Penn State Chances of Victory: 41.2%

ESPN FPI National Championship Odds

ESPN FPI updated its national championship odds following Notre Dame's defeat of Georgia. The Irish were given the nation's best chances of winning it all entering the semi-finals. What's worth noting is that Notre Dame's chances of advancing to the championship are the best of the four remaining teams, but that the formula would favor both Ohio State and Texas over the Irish in a title game showdown.

4. Penn State: 15.6%

3. Texas: 27.0%

2. Ohio State: 28.4%

1. Notre Dame: 29.1%

More from Notre Dame on Sports Illustrated

Notre Dame loses tight end for year in defeat of Georgia

Notre Dame Outslugs Georgia to Record Biggest Win in 31 Years

Notre Dame's Special Teams Shine in Dominant Victory Over Georgia in Sugar Bowl

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Nick Shepkowski
NICK SHEPKOWSKI

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