ESPN FPI Updates College Football Playoff Odds: Notre Dame’s Chances of Winning Out

Notre Dame continues stay in top four following defeat of Virginia

Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard (13) throws the ball during a NCAA college football game against Virginia at Notre Dame Stadium on Saturday, Nov. 16, 2024, in South Bend. / MICHAEL CLUBB/SOUTH BEND TRIBUNE / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Notre Dame moved to 9-1 on the year with a 35-14 victory over Virginia on Saturday, wrapping up the home portion of the regular season.

The Irish now hit the road to take on Army in the Shamrock Series on Saturday night at Yankee Stadium before heading west for a Thanksgiving weekend date with USC.

Notre Dame was in control for almost the entirety of Saturday's win. Forget the "eye test" for a just a minute, how impressive was what Notre Dame did to the non-biased computers?

ESPN's FPI remains extremely high on Notre Dame following the win, even with a few other top ten teams having huge wins elsewhere as the Irish stayed ahead of the SEC powers outside of Texas.

ESPN FPI Top 25 Following Week 12

Nov 16, 2024; South Bend, Indiana, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish running back Jeremiyah Love (4) helps up Virginia Cavaliers cornerback Kendren Smith (4) after a play in the third quarter at Notre Dame Stadium. / Matt Cashore-Imagn Images

1. Alabama
2. Texas
3. Ohio State
4. Notre Dame
5. Georgia
6. Ole Miss
7. Penn State
8. Oregon
9. Tennessee
10. Miami
11. Indiana
12. Clemson
13. South Carolina
14. Texas A&M
15. SMU
16. USC
17. Louisville
18. Tulane
19. LSU
20. Colorado
21. Boise State
22. Iowa
23. Iowa State
24. Missouri
25. Kansas State

ESPN FPI Projects Notre Dame's Final Two Regular Season Games

Here are Notre Dame's chances at winning each of the remaining two games according to ESPN FPI along with what those chances were a week ago, pre-Virginia. As you'll see, Notre Dame's chances of making the College Football Playoff are very much alive.

However, despite the win over Virginia, ESPN FPI's odds of Notre Dame winning both of its remaining games took slight hits.

vs. Army: 87.6% (-0.9)

at USC: 67.2% (-1.5)

Notre Dame Season Projections from ESPN FPI:

To Win-Out This Regular Season: 59.1% (up 1.3% from Nov. 10)

Make College Football Playoff: 68.9% (up 3.2%)

Make National Championship Game: 12.8 (down 1.3%)

Win National Championship: 6.7% (down 0.9%)

ESPN FPI Odds to Make College Football Playoff

The following are the 23 teams ESPN's FPI gives a 1% chance or better of making the College Football Playoff as of November 17.

23. UNLV: 9.4%
22. Iowa State: 10.4%
21. Army: 10.6%
20. South Carolina: 11.5%
19. Texas A&M: 12.5%
18. Arizona State: 15.8%
17. Tulane: 19.0%
16. Clemson: 20.1%
15. Colorado: 36.1%
14. BYU: 39.1%
13. SMU: 41.6%
12. Ole Miss: 62.1%
11. Miami: 62.7%
10. Tennessee: 66.4%
9. Notre Dame: 68.9%
8. Alabama: 70.7%
7. Boise State: 77.0%
6. Penn State: 88.2%
5. Georgia: 92.0%
4. Texas: 93.7%
3. Ohio State: 94.6%
2. Indiana: 96.6%
1. Oregon: 99.6%

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