ESPN's Computer Projection for Remainder of Notre Dame Football Season

The computers see an interesting season for Notre Dame following Week 1 of college football

Aug 31, 2024; College Station, Texas, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish head coach Marcus Freeman reacts in the fourth quarter against the Texas A&M Aggies at Kyle Field. / Maria Lysaker-USA TODAY Sports

Notre Dame's season opening win at Texas A&M was one of the biggest on college football's first full weekend of 2024.

Many analysts have weighed in on their thoughts of what the big victory means both for now and for the rest of the season. What about a non-biased opinion though?

ESPN's Football Power Index tries to provide exactly that with a formula that ranks teams based on metric-based performance, not an eye test or anything of the sort.

It's only one full week of games so the sample size is limited but ESPN's FPI was impressed with Notre Dame in the victory.

ESPN FPI Predicts Notre Dame vs. Northern Illinois Game

ESPN's Football Power Indexis all a mathematical formula that works out the chances of a team winning a game heads up versus another.

Don't think about the AP Poll's Top 25 rankings when you think this, instead think of how point spreads are traditionally made.

In a game that has a point spread of roughly 30-points, the FPI sees Notre Dame cruising to victory over the Huskies.

ESPN FPI Notre Dame vs. Northern Illinois Prediction: Notre Dame 96.1% chance to win

ESPN FPI Predicts Entire Notre Dame Season

ESPN FPI's numbers are out for the entire season and they've changed slightly from when we looked at them ahead of last week's Texas A&M game.

Here are Notre Dame's chances at winning each of the other 12 games according to ESPN FPI along with what the chances were a week ago, pre-Texas A&M. As you'll see, some odds have shifted for the better and worse depending on how opponents performed.

Aug 31, 2024; College Station, Texas, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish cornerback Christian Gray (29) tackles Texas A&M Aggies defensive back Trey Jones III (9) in the fourth quarter at Kyle Field. / Maria Lysaker-USA TODAY Sports

Notre Dame vs. Northern Illinois: 96.1% (-0.8)
Notre Dame at Purdue: 81.4% (-3.1)
Notre Dame vs. Miami University: 95.6 (+0.8)
Notre Dame vs. Louisville: 69.3% (-6.6)
Notre Dame vs. Stanford: 95.1% (+2.3)
Notre Dame vs. Georgia Tech: 77.2% (+1.0)
Notre Dame vs. Navy: 97.6% (0.3)
Notre Dame vs. Florida State: 79.3% (+3.9)
Notre Dame vs. Virginia: 94.5% (+1.9)
Notre Dame vs. Army: 95.9% (-0.3)
Notre Dame at USC: 58.6% (-3.0)

Notre Dame Season Projections from ESPN FPI:

12-0 Regular Season: 20.2% (up 5.3% from August 27)

Make College Football Playoff: 69.2% (up 10.3%)

Make National Championship Game: 11.3% (up 1.0%)

Win National Championship: 5.1% (same)

Nick Shepkowski's Quick Thoughts:

The biggest thing here is that Notre Dame got through the toughest game on the schedule with a victory. Instead of having a 58% chance or so of beating Texas A&M, that one now counts as 100%.

The sample size is low but a strong performance by USC against LSU makes that game appear tougher than first thought, especially with how improved the Trojans defense looked in Week 1.

The most surprising one to me was the Louisville game where Notre Dame's chances of a home victory dropped by over 6% following a 62-0 Cardinals win over Austin Peay.

Notre Dame on Sports Illustrated

Notre Dame Updates Depth Chart Ahead of Northern Illinois Game


Marcus Freeman Gets Advice from Old Head Coach Following Huge Texas A&M Win


Notre Dame's Epic Final Drive Video from Texas A&M Thriller


5 Numbers That Tell the Story of Notre Dame's Win at Texas A&M

Watch Marcus Freeman's Epic Entrance to Kyle Field Before Kickoff

Social Media Reaction to Notre Dame's Epic Season Opening Win at Texas A&M

Brian Kelly Loses Yet Another Opener at LSU and Promptly Gets Roasted

Notre Dame's Biggest Season Opening Wins Since 1997- Where Does A&M Rank?