ESPN Projects Notre Dame's Remaining Schedule Following Northern Illinois Loss

ESPN FPI didn't move Notre Dame down far but all of their odds took a major hit

Notre Dame running back Jadarian Price runs the ball up the field during a NCAA college football game between Notre Dame and Northern Illinois at Notre Dame Stadium on Saturday, Sept. 7, 2024, in South Bend. / Michael Clubb / USA TODAY NETWORK

Notre Dame's dreams of a perfect regular season took a major hit on Saturday as the Irish fell despite being nearly a four-touchdown pick against Northern Illinois.

As a result the pollsters dropped Notre Dame like a rock and the hopes of hosting a College Football Playoff game at Notre Dame Stadium this winter took a massive hit.

ESPN's Football Power Index tries to provide exactly that with a formula that ranks teams based on metric-based performance, not an eye test or anything of the sort.

As you can probably guess, the index isn't impressed with Notre Dame after the loss. Although it only dropped four spots in the rankings, Notre Dame's chances of making any noise this postseason took a massive hit.

ESPN FPI Predicts Notre Dame vs. Purdue Game

Notre Dame's defense celebrates getting a stop during a NCAA college football game between Notre Dame and Northern Illinois at Notre Dame Stadium on Saturday, Sept. 7, 2024, in South Bend. / Michael Clubb / USA TODAY NETWORK

ESPN's Football Power Index is all a mathematical formula that works out the chances of a team winning a game heads up versus another.

It factors in stats and roster construction of each team and changes the likelihood of winning percentages for each game, each week.

Notre Dame is still a significant favorite over Purdue on Saturday, but the chances took a significant hit. A week ago FPI gave Notre Dame an 81.4% chance of winning in West Lafayette. This week those chances fell to just 73.7%.

ESPN FPI Predicts Entire Notre Dame Season

Like against Purdue, Notre Dame's chances of winning each of its 10 remaining regular season games took a significant hit. Here are Notre Dame's chances at winning each of the other nine games according to ESPN FPI along with what the chances were a week ago, pre-Northern Illinois. As you'll see, Notre Dame's chances of having what fans would view as a special season took a major blow.

Notre Dame at Purdue: 73.7% (-7.7)
Notre Dame vs. Miami University: 93.1 (-2.5)
Notre Dame vs. Louisville: 55.7% (-11.6)
Notre Dame vs. Stanford: 91.5% (-3.6)
Notre Dame vs. Georgia Tech: 71.3% (-6.1)
Notre Dame vs. Navy: 93.8% (-4.2)
Notre Dame vs. Florida State: 79.3% (same)
Notre Dame vs. Virginia: 89.2% (-5.3)
Notre Dame vs. Army: 87.4% (-8.3)
Notre Dame at USC: 36.2% (-22.4)

Notre Dame Season Projections from ESPN FPI:

To Win-Out This Regular Season: 8% (down 12.2% from Sept. 2)

Make College Football Playoff: 23.2% (down 46%)

Make National Championship Game: 2.0% (down 9.3%)

Win National Championship: 0.7% (down 1.4%)

Nick Shepkowski's Quick Thoughts:

The computer reflects what we all see. Notre Dame played an impressive defensive game at Texas A&M but was beat off the field on Saturday against Northern Illinois. The numbers favor the talent Notre Dame has but based on what has happened on the field to date, it's not expecting the Irish to turn things around too quickly.

The only good thing that comes from the embarrassing loss is that focus shouldn't be an issue for this team at any point the rest of the year, and if it is, that'll be an indictment on you-know-who.

Notre Dame on Sports Illustrated


The History of the Notre Dame-Purdue Rivalry


Notre Dame tweaks depth chart following Northern Illinois upset loss

Instant Takeaways from Notre Dame's Massive Upset Loss to Northern Illinois

Social Media Rightfully Roasts Notre Dame After Northern Illinois Loss


Northern Illinois Stuns Notre Dame in All-Time Upset

Marcus Freeman's Seat Warms in Big Way Following Northern Illinois Upset

Marcus Freeman and Riley Leonard discuss brutal 4th quarter interception