ESPN's Computer Projection for Notre Dame-Texas A&M Showdown

The computer has spoken and sees a close one Saturday night in College Station

Nick Shepkowski | Aug 28, 2024

Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman warms up during a Notre Dame football practice at Irish Athletic Center on Thursday, Aug. 15, 2024, in South Bend. / MICHAEL CLUBB/SOUTH BEND TRIBUNE / USA TODAY NETWORK

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We're approaching the 72-hour mark until Notre Dame kicks off the 2024 season at Texas A&M in a game that simply can't get here soon enough.

It's not the biggest opener Notre Dame has ever had but it feels like a winds of change type moment for the program.

Win and 12-0 and a home College Football Playoff game along with a chance to make some noise in the dance seems likely.

Lose and the next 11 games will feel like you're hanging on by your fingertips for a home playoff game that would obviously mean so much.

So what does an unbiased outlet say about Notre Dame's chances on Saturday night in College Station?

ESPN FPI Predicts Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M

𝙂𝙖𝙢𝙚 𝙒𝙚𝙚𝙠

🆚 Texas A&M
📍 College Station, Texas
📅 Saturday, Aug. 31
🕢 7:30 PM ET
📺 ABC#GoIrish☘️ | @DICKS pic.twitter.com/0PUKk3Meku
— Notre Dame Football (@NDFootball) August 26, 2024

ESPN's Football Power Index is all a mathematical formula that works out the chances of a team winning a game heads up versus another.

Don't think about the AP Poll's Top 25 rankings when you think this, instead think of how point spreads are traditionally made.

What's interesting about what the ESPN FPI formula says is that it doesn't match the pointspread whatsoever.

As Notre Dame sits as a 2.5-point underdog, the ESPN FPI formula thinks Notre Dame wins the game.

ESPN FPI Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M Prediction: Notre Dame 58.8% chance to win

ESPN FPI Predicts Entire Notre Dame Season

ESPN FPI's numbers are out for the entire season and they've changed slightly from when we first looked at them a couple of weeks back.

Here are Notre Dame's chances at winning each of the other 12 games according to ESPN FPI along with what the chances were two weeks ago. As you'll see, the Georgia Tech upset of Florida State changed how the formula views both teams and Notre Dame's chances against each.

Notre Dame running back Devyn Ford at football practice in August of 2024

Notre Dame running back Devyn Ford participates in a drill during a Notre Dame football practice at Irish Athletic Center on Thursday, Aug. 15, 2024, in South Bend. / MICHAEL CLUBB/SOUTH BEND TRIBUNE / USA TODAY NETWORK

Notre Dame at Texas A&M: 58.8% (same)
Notre Dame vs. Northern Illinois: 96.9% (+0.1)
Notre Dame at Purdue: 84.5% (+0.1)
Notre Dame vs. Miami University: 94.8 (same)
Notre Dame vs. Louisville: 75.9% (-0.2)
Notre Dame vs. Stanford: 92.8% (same)
Notre Dame vs. Georgia Tech: 78.2% (-7.9)
Notre Dame vs. Navy: 97.3% (same)
Notre Dame vs. Florida State: 75.4% (+4.9)
Notre Dame vs. Virginia: 92.6% (-0.1)
Notre Dame vs. Army: 96.2% (same)
Notre Dame at USC: 61.6% (-0.2)

Notre Dame Season Projections from ESPN FPI:

12-0 Regular Season: 14.9% (down 0.9% from August 14)

Make College Football Playoff: 58.9% (down 0.2%)

Make National Championship Game: 10.3% (up 0.3%)

Win National Championship: 5.1% (up 0.3%)

Nick Shepkowski's Quick Thoughts:

I am a little surprised by the formula picking Notre Dame to win. It's not like Texas A&M didn't recruit extremely well under Jimbo Fisher or that Mike Elko wasn't effective in the transfer portal since being hired. Not that a computer model ultimately is what matters but with Texas A&M being at home the formula must REALLY like this Notre Dame squad.

The other part I found surprising wasn't that Georgia Tech is now being viewed by the formula as a tougher game, but instead that Florida State didn't drop as much. I know a formula doesn't account for a defensive line looking overmatched for one game like the human eye and mind might, but when I saw the Georgia Tech odds drop like they did I was expecting Notre Dame's odds against Florida State to skyrocket.

Side note: Can we get to Saturday already!?!!