Historical Statistic Suggests 2024 Could Be a Breakout Year for Notre Dame

Will history repeat itself for the Fighting Irish? It's possible this could be a huge year for the Irish because ...

Notre Dame Head Coach Marcus Freeman speaks to Kahanu Kia (43) and Devan Houstan (98) Saturday, April 20, 2024, at the annual Notre Dame Blue-Gold spring football game at Notre Dame Stadium in South Bend. / MANDATORY CREDIT GREG SWIERCZ / USA TODAY NETWORK

Brett McMurphy taking a deep dive into national title history

Long-time college football writer Brett McMurphy tweeted a very interesting statistic recently in which he noted that since 2004, the college football national champion has started the year ranked in the top seven in the AP poll every year with only two outliers.

As coincidence would have it, the Irish sit exactly at number 7 to start 2024.

What can we learn from this chart? It suggests that the AP poll has a solid understanding of potential top-level competitors each year, given how frequently the eventual champion has been ranked in the top 7 - at least that's the hope for the Irish.

This year's champ? Either No. 1 Georgia, No. 2 Ohio State, No. 3 Oregon, No. 4 Texas, No. 5 Alabama, No. 6 Ole Miss or No. 7 Notre Dame. Since 2004, every national champ ranked among AP preseason’s top 7, except for FSU (2013, started 11) & Auburn (2010, started 22)

— Brett McMurphy (@Brett_McMurphy) August 12, 2024

What this statistic cannot account for

While this historical tidbit may understandably get Irish fans excited in a way they haven't been since 1988, there is something this statistic cannot account for.

The new CFP format in which Notre Dame will have to beat four top 12 teams in a row to hoist the trophy. That's never had to be done before.

What are the odds the Irish crank out major bowl wins in a row when they haven't collected one such victory since the early 90s?

I'm certainly just as excited as anyone else is to see how Notre Dame fares in this new format but there's no doubt about it, the Irish will have to do something special to play for the national title.

First, just get in it and then let's see. It's a new era, and a new format - and a new Notre Dame.

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