How Notre Dame Makes the College Football Playoff

How different scenarios impact Notre Dame football's college football playoffs chances.

Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love (4) falls into the end zone for a touchdown during a NCAA college football game between Notre Dame and Louisville at Notre Dame Stadium on Saturday, Sept. 28, 2024, in South Bend. / MICHAEL CLUBB/SOUTH BEND TRIBUNE / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Notre Dame's season has been a roller coaster ride so far.

The highs of a season opening win that may have been over hyped were immediately replaced with the lows accompanying a brutal loss. and Notre Dame's most recent win over resilient Louisville has set the Irish on an upwards trajectory once again.

With seven games remaining and the ultimate prize still on the table, all eyes look to the future. In years past, the Irish would already be eliminated from CFP contention, yet now the Irish retain legitimate hope.

Over the next seven games, what will be good enough to see the Irish into the playoffs? 7-0? 5-2? 4-3? Let's take a look at what different scenarios would mean for the Irish and their playoff hopes.

What if ...

Notre Dame goes 0-7 (4-8)

This would be cataclysmic.

Riley Leonard sustaining an injury, the defense losing five or six key players, Marcus Freeman forgetting how to coach, and the program sustaining an NIU level of intensity probably doesn't even result in the Irish going winless the remainder of the stretch.

Forget the playoffs, the Notre Dame football program might disband if this occurs.

1️⃣3️⃣ is a playmaker ☘️#GoIrish☘️ | @rileyleonard13_ pic.twitter.com/X3l9aT26oO

— Notre Dame Football (@NDFootball) October 2, 2024

Notre Dame goes 1-6 (5-7)

This would be as bad as going 0-7. Similarly plausible. But it would be funny if Notre Dame imploded and still beat FSU.

Notre Dame might not even get to watch the College Football Playoff if it does this.

Notre Dame goes 2-5 (6-6)

If Notre Dame permanently becomes the team they were against Northern Illinois, this is probably the floor. Blowout losses to USC and Georgia Tech are accompanied by three embarrassing losses to service academies or lower-tier ACC teams. They would still probably beat Navy and FSU though.

Again, the playoffs are a pipe-dream.

Notre Dame goes 3-4 (7-5)

An uninspired Notre Dame program repeatedly loses close games to upset-minded teams before getting plastered by USC in the season finale to cap off a dismal year. The offensive line regresses, Leonard gets the yips, and the defensive can't singlehandedly carry the Irish to victory most nights.

After a tragic meltdown, the Irish are nowhere near the playoffs.

Notre Dame goes 4-3 (8-4)

The realistic floor for this team. Leonard and the defense underperform against Georgia Tech, an upstart Cavalier team catches the Irish playing flat, and the Trojans defend home-field in the Colosseum.

The Irish drop out of the rankings after week 11 and don't sniff the playoffs. Marcus Freeman is sat directly upon the hot seat.

Notre Dame goes 5-2 (9-3)

USC beats Notre Dame and the Irish slip up against an inferior opponent once again. Notre Dame simply isn't a consistent enough program to navigate an entire season, and are outclassed by the best team they face all year.

Doubts about Freeman's ability to generate results at this level seep in, and Riley Leonard ends his college career in disappointing fashion.

The Irish hover around the top 25 and miss the playoffs by a wide margin.

Notre Dame goes 6-1 (10-2)

The Irish might be able to make the playoffs with a second loss.

Maybe.

First, they'll have to win their other six games convincingly. Purdue-esc score lines will be needed. Then, they'll need a second team on their schedule to quickly ascend the rankings.

Preferably more. If they are going to lose a game, it has to be offset with other quality wins. Lastly, USC has to ranked inside the top six or seven and Notre Dame has to be highly competitive with them.

Even given all that, the Irish probably still need external help to get into the CFP.

Again, it depends on who that loss is to, and ...

Notre Dame goes 7-0 (11-1)

In. No question, no stress, no doubt.

Winning out gives the Irish an 11-1 record with multiple wins against ranked teams - and with Army and Navy starting to become stronger-looking potential wins.

In the last ten years, only one Power Five (I know, I know) team with an 11-1 record or better has been ranked outside the top eight, and pollsters seriously slept on 2015 North Carolina.

In this world, Riley Leonard is drafted in the first round, Marcus Freeman is one of the top coaches in college football, and the Notre Dame program is all sunshine and rainbows.