Irish Breakdown Preseason Top 25 College Football Rankings
We are just over two weeks away from the start of the college football season so it's time to release the first Irish Breakdown Top 25. This is the preseason version, and the others will come out on Sunday's after games.
This preseason ranking is NOT a prediction of how the season will go. While projection is part of the ranking, the primary factors are based on finding where teams deserve to be ranked to start the season.
Rankings Criteria
Here are the factors that go into a preseason ranking:
*** Recent performance. How a team performed in 2022 will be the biggest factor, but recent trends also factor into this to a small degree.
*** What returns. How much production returns, what top players come back (and how big were the losses), what coaches were lost, what big injuries could impact the team.
*** Newcomers. What transfers and incoming freshman are arriving that could have an immediate impact.
*** Schedule plays a bit of a factor as well, as a team with a softer schedule will get a bump (see Michigan), while a team with a more challenging schedule will might get dinged a bit (see LSU).
IB TOP 25
1. Georgia Bulldogs - 15-0
2. Michigan Wolverines - 13-1
3. Alabama Crimson Tide - 11-2
4. Ohio State Buckeyes - 11-2
5. Washington Huskies - 11-2
6. Penn State Nittany Lions - 11-2
7. Southern Cal Trojans - 11-3
8. Clemson Tigers - 11-3
9. LSU Tigers - 10-4
10. Notre Dame Fighting Irish - 9-4
11. Florida State Seminoles - 10-3
12. Texas Longhorns - 8-5
13. Utah Utes - 10-4
14. Tennessee Volunteers - 11-2
15. Kansas State Wildcats - 10-4
16. TCU Horned Frogs - 13-2
17. Iowa Hawkeyes - 8-5
18. Oregon State Beavers - 10-3
19. Oregon Ducks - 10-3
20. North Carolina Tar Heels - 9-5
21. Arkansas Razorbacks - 7-6
22. NC State Wolfpack - 8-5
23. Illinois Fighting Illini - 8-5
24. UTSA Roadrunners - 11-3
25. Tulane Green Wave - 12-2
Here is a brief look at each team and why they are ranked where they are.
1. GEORGIA BULLDOGS - I'm a big believer in you're the champs until someone beats you. Georgia has been the nation's most dominant team the last two years and they return a lot of talent. I have some questions at OC, but Georgia absolutely belongs at the top.
2. MICHIGAN WOLVERINES - I am not predicting Michigan to finish this high for a host of reasons, but the Wolverines are 25-3 the last two seasons and have dominated the Big Ten. They belong in the No. 2 spot based on that according to my criteria for the poll.
3. ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE - This is one of the more intriguing rankings for me. Alabama returns a ton of talent, but major questions at quarterback and two new coordinators have me questioning if the Tide will play their potential. The talent and strong finish to the season are why the Tide are here.
4. OHIO STATE BUCKEYES - Ohio State had one really bad day last season, and that has soured some on the Buckeyes. That's how big the Michigan-Ohio State rivalry is. Outside of that one bad day, the Buckeyes were outstanding, and they return a lot of talent, they just have to get good play from the OL and quarterback.
5. WASHINGTON HUSKIES - I'm very high on the Huskies coming into the 2023 season. They were a sneaky good team last season, finishing 11-2 with both losses being by one score. UW has an elite pass game, landed two quality transfer backs and the defense should be improved.
6. PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS - The Nittany Lions were overrated last season and feasted on a soft schedule, but this year I think they should be outstanding. PSU should have a dominant run game, and if Drew Allar can just be good they should be outstanding. A lot of talent on defense as well.
7. SOUTHERN CAL TROJANS - USC returns the best player in college football, and the presence of Caleb Williams and Lincoln Riley will make them potent. Williams has a strong supporting cast, but the Trojans have a lot to prove on defense and their offensive line is a question mark as well.
8. CLEMSON TIGERS - I am high on the Tigers heading into the season thanks to the insertion of Cade Klubnik into the starting lineup at QB and the arrival of Garrett Riley. Clemson still has plenty of talent coming back on defense, and this could be one of the best Clemson offensive lines in years.
9. LSU TIGERS - Yes, LSU has a chance to be really good if some things go well, but I can't buy a team that lost four games - with three being blowouts - being ranked as a top five team. LSU is a Top 10 team, but need to be at the bottom half based on those results, and there are still questions that need answered.
10. NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH - Notre Dame finished the 2022 season on a strong note, going 6-1 down the stretch, including wins over three ranked teams. The arrival of Sam Hartman and a lot of talent on defense should make Irish fans optimistic about this team. If the skill talent on offense emerges, watch out.
11. FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES - I really like this Florida State team and contemplated putting them higher, but they still have a lot to prove. Florida State returns a ton of talent and their transfer class is outstanding, but they still need to prove they can beat Clemson and not stub their toe like we saw last season.
12. TEXAS LONGHORNS - Texas has a Top 10 roster, but the Longhorns are coming off an 8-5 season. There is no way I can justify them being a preseason Top 10 team. The offensive line and defense need to make big strides, Quinn Ewers has to be more consistent and Steve Sarkisian needs to build consistency.
13. UTAH UTES - Utah was a hard team to rank because of the injury to Cameron Rising. They would be much lower if I knew he was out for the season, and likely a few spots higher if he didn't tear his ACL in the Rose Bowl. Utah will be physical and they are still the back-to-back Pac 12 champs.
14. TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS - Tennessee was really good in year two of Josh Huepel's tenure, and they are poised to continue being one of the better teams in the SEC. The key for Tennessee is Joe Milton has to be what the coaches hope he is, and new offensive playmakers need to emerge.
15. KANSAS STATE WILDCATS - I love what Chris Klieman is building in Manhattan. The Wildcats are going to be well coached, physical and the return of Will Howard should boost the offense if he can build on what he did last season. The loss of Deuce Vaughn stings, but KSU should keep rolling.
16. TCU HORNED FROGS - TCU is a really hard team to rank because they were the national runners up last season, going 13-2. The problem is TCU lost A LOT from their roster, as well as Riley at OC. I believe their 2022 season was a bit of a fluke, and the personnel losses are why I have them this low.
17. IOWA HAWKEYES - Iowa won five of their last six games, including a 24-3 blowout win over Purdue and a 21-0 bowl victory over Kentucky. The arrival of QB Cade McNamara is huge when you consider how bad the QB play has been in recent seasons, and Phil Parker's defense should still be elite.
18. OREGON STATE BEAVERS - This might actually be too low for Oregon State. The Beavers won seven of their last eight, including a win over Oregon and a. blowout bowl win over Florida. DJ Uiagalelei should fit the offense well, the offensive line is outstanding (as is the run game) and the defense is well coached.
19. OREGON DUCKS - I'm not sold on the Ducks yet. Bo Nix was outstanding last season, but Oregon lost a ton and are hoping a bunch of transfers can fill those voids. Oregon also went 2-3 against ranked opponents last season, and this season they can't duck USC.
20. NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS - UNC returns one of the most explosive quarterbacks in the game and I expect their run game to be much better. Their defense is the problem, but they should be slightly better. If Drake Maye stays healthy and the run game gets going UNC could be really good.
21. ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS - Arkansas is a Top 25 team with QB KJ Jefferson is healthy, and he's back and healthy. He and Rocket Sanders are one of the better 1-2 backfield duos in college football. If Arkansas can get its defense to play better the Razorbacks could make some noise in the SEC West.
22. NC STATE WOLFPACK - I'm higher on NC State than most due to the arrival of Robert Anae and Brennan Armstrong. Anae worked offensive magic at Virginia and Syracuse, and he'll have quality athletes to put around Armstrong, who knows the offense. The defense had some losses but should still be strong.
23. ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI - Illinois suffered some really big defensive losses and at running back, but Bret Bielema knows how to win in the Big Ten, the defense still has plenty of difference makers and the offense should be improved in the pass game this season.
24. UTSA ROADRUNNERS - Frank Harris is a really fun quarterback to watch, and the Roadrunners should be one of the top teams in the AAC. Their 11-3 record and potent offense has them in the Top 25, but they'll be tested early and often, so let's see how long it lasts.
25. TULANE GREEN WAVE - Tulane has an outstanding football coach in Willie Fritz and Michael Pratt should be an even better passer this season. The loss of Tyjae Spears and eight starters on defense, combined with losses at the skill positions on offense, knock them down the rankings a bit.
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