Notre Dame Football: Season Win Projections for the Rest of 2024

Can the Irish finish strong? Breaking down Notre Dame's 2024 win projections and potential outcomes for the rest of the season.

Sep 28, 2024; South Bend, Indiana, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish head coach Marcus Freeman reacts after a turnover on downs by the Louisville Cardinals in the second quarter at Notre Dame Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Cashore-Imagn Images / Matt Cashore-Imagn Images

Notre Dame is halfway home, what does the rest of the season look like?

Notre Dame is now exactly halfway through the 2024 season with a 5-1 record and ranked 12th in the AP poll after the latest beatdown over Stanford. What are the odds that Notre Dame can run the table the remaining 6 games?

According to 10,000 simulated season runs, the most likely outcome for Notre Dame by far is to end the year at 10-2, which means the Irish would drop 1 more game somewhere along the way. This outcome is the most likely at around 40%, with 9-3 and 11-1 outcomes both being at around 25% likelihoods.

My model's updated projection for Notre Dame's season pic.twitter.com/8OK1l1iyhO

— Notre Dame Football Stats & Analytics (@ND_FB_Analytics) October 15, 2024

The difference between 11-1 and 10-2 is massive this year for Notre Dame

Should Notre Dame win out at 11-1, it may very well end up in position to host a CFP game, but at the very least is a guaranteed lock to make the field. At 10-2 though, there is a significant risk of missing the CFP completely in what would be a very disappointing season result.

Notre Dame's remaining schedule is very manageable. In fact, Notre Dame may end up being favored in each remaining game. But injuries are mounting up for Notre Dame and while the Irish may be favored in all games moving forward, there are some really tricky matchups upcoming that Notre Dame must be prepared for.

The Irish are in a 6 game battle for CFP entry. Each game will present unique challenges but also areas where Notre Dame should be able to take command. Buckle up for a wild ride to the finish line!

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