Notre Dame Rises to No. 5 in CFP Rankings: Can It Still Get In With a Loss to USC?

Notre Dame climbs to No. 5 in the CFP rankings. Could a loss to USC still leave the Irish with a path to the playoff?

Nov 23, 2024; New York, New York, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish defensive lineman Gabriel Rubio (97) celebrates after a win against the Army Black Knights at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Danny Wild-Imagn Images / Danny Wild-Imagn Images

The latest edition of the College Football Playoff rankings was released on Tuesday night, and Notre Dame has climbed once again, now sitting at No. 5.

Technically, this means it currently occupies the No. 7 seed. If the standings hold, the Irish would face SMU in the first round at Notre Dame Stadium - but that all could change fast.

Over the past two months, the Irish have been one of the most dominant teams in the country, boasting the best point differential in the nation. Their current No. 5 ranking reflects the committee's strong respect for the growing resume with only one regular-season game remaining.

5️⃣ in the College Football Playoff Rankings#GoIrish☘️ pic.twitter.com/ON7Zm4JTYk

— Notre Dame Football (@NDFootball) November 27, 2024

What the No. 5 Ranking Means for Notre Dame

There are two strong opinions I have based on this ranking by the committee.

First and foremost, if Notre Dame beats USC, it has not only locked down - not officially, but realistically - a spot in the College Football Playoff, but it will also be hosting a first round game.

In fact, if anything, the next two weeks are likely to bring more chaos, further strengthening this argument.

The second opinion is that Notre Dame has a chance to make the playoff even with a loss in Los Angeles against the Trojans.

We've seen the committee drop teams drastically after losses, and that can certainly happen to the Irish as well. It might be an uphill battle, but the path is still very much in play.

The Path to the Playoff With a Loss

I don’t believe in bad juju, so I’m not shying away from this subject.

As impressive as Notre Dame’s last nine games have been, there is still a major test ahead this weekend against bitter rival USC. After the loss to NIU in September, it was clear that the Irish would need to win out to make the Playoff.

That said, it wasn’t expected that Notre Dame would go on to dominate the remaining teams on its schedule and end up with the best point differential in the country. Simply put, Notre Dame has looked like one of the 12 best teams in the nation, and that can’t be ignored.

One key factor that could help Notre Dame is Texas A&M winning the SEC. Despite having three losses, they still control their own destiny.

The biggest resume boost Notre Dame could get in the final two weeks before the rankings are set is Texas A&M beating Texas on Saturday night, then taking down Georgia afterward.

At that point, not only would the SEC Champion have a loss to Notre Dame on its home turf, but Notre Dame would have two losses—while Georgia, Alabama, and Ole Miss would each have at least three. Additionally, Notre Dame would share a common opponent with Texas, holding a better result.

That said, don't leave it up to fate—just go out and win on Saturday. Win, and you're absolutely in.