Notre Dame's Updated Playoff Odds Following a Thrilling Week 10 in College Football

With the wildness of Week 10, perhaps Notre Dame had a well-timed second off week

Oct 26, 2024; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish defensive lineman Boubacar Traore (5) celebrates his intercept with teammates during the second half against the Navy Midshipmen at MetLife Stadium. / Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

Notre Dame had its second of two off weeks for Week 10 of the college football season and perhaps that was a good thing.

Around the nation more wildness played out as Texas A&M was routed at South Carolina, Clemson was boat raced at home by Louisville.

The updated rankings will certainly have some significant changes when they are released late Sunday morning and the first College Football Playoff rankings are due out Tuesday night. Your guess is as good as any as to how they'll look.

ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) updated their numbers following Week 10 and Notre Dame saw some very slight changes for their chances of winning out as well as making the College Football Playoff.

ESPN FPI Updated Top 25 Team Rankings

The new ESPN FPI rankings are out as of Sunday morning. The top-five from last week remained unchnaged.

1. Texas
2. Ohio State
3. Alabama
4. Georgia
5. Notre Dame
6. Ole Miss
7. Oregon
8. Tennessee
9. Miami
10. Indiana
11. Penn State
12. LSU
13. Clemson

14. Louisville
15. Texas A&M
16. SMU
17. USC
18. South Carolina
19. Boise State
20. Iowa
21. Iowa State
22. Kansas State
23. Colorado
24. Tulane
25. Florida

ESPN FPI Projects Notre Dame's Remainder of Season

Oct 26, 2024; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA;Notre Dame Fighting Irish quarterback Riley Leonard (13) carries the ball during the first half against the Navy Midshipmen at MetLife Stadium. / Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

Here are Notre Dame's chances at winning each of the remaining four games according to ESPN FPI along with what those chances were a week ago, right after the Navy game. Notre Dame's chances of making the College Football Playoff are strong as its chances of winning out went up slightly compared to a week ago.

vs. Florida State: 96.5% (+0.6)
vs. Virginia: 95.6% (-0.2)
vs. Army: 86.8% (same)
at USC: 62.8% (+1.8)

Notre Dame Season Projections from ESPN FPI:

To Win-Out This Regular Season: 50.3% (up 1.2% from Oct. 27)

Make College Football Playoff: 57.8% (down 0.8%)

Make National Championship Game: 10.1 (down 1.4%)

Win National Championship: 5.3% (down 1.0%)

ESPN FPI Odds to Make College Football Playoff

The following are the 30 teams ESPN's FPI gives a 2% chance or better of making the College Football Playoff as of November 3.

1. Oregon: 95.6%
2. Miami: 92.8%
3. Georgia: 92.3%
4. Ohio State: 91.3%
5. Indiana: 86.6%
6. Texas: 77.9%
7. Tennessee: 73.9%
8. Penn State: 73.7%
9. Boise State: 70.5%
10. BYU: 57.9%

11. Notre Dame: 57.8%
12. Alabama: 55.5
13. SMU: 47.2%
14. Ole Miss: 29.2%
15. Iowa State: 24.3%
16. LSU: 21.9%
17. Army: 20.5
18. Texas A&M: 19.1%
19. Washington State: 17.1%
20. Kansas State: 14.4%

21. Colorado: 13.8%
22. Tulane: 11.7%
23. Pittsburgh: 11.4%
24. UNLV: 8.9%
25. Louisiana: 7.9%
26. Clemson: 7.0%
27. Missouri: 6.5%
28. South Carolina: 3.0%
29. Arizona State: 2.3%
30. Louisville: 2.0%

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