Examining Notre Dame’s College Football Playoff Odds in 2024 Based on Recent History

Are the Irish in a decent position even after their NIU loss?

Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love (4) celebrates scoring a touchdown during a NCAA college football game between Notre Dame and Louisville at Notre Dame Stadium on Saturday, Sept. 28, 2024, in South Bend. / MICHAEL CLUBB/SOUTH BEND TRIBUNE / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Notre Dame was in prime playoff position, but only for a short time

After Notre Dame's huge victory over Texas A&M to start the season, the Irish were in prime playoff position. They had one of the best early wins in the country, a seemingly light schedule ahead of them, and had survived what was thought to be the biggest early threat to success, the road trip to College Station.

This was all very short-lived, however.

With Notre Dame never being eligible for a CFP bye due to independence, the 5 seed, arguably the most favorable of all seeds based on bracket matchups, was the Irish's goal.

Notre Dame was in the driver's seat for this spot for just a handful of days before disaster struck in the form of Northern Illinois' upset in South Bend. Now, Notre Dame sits with 2 ranked wins and one of the worst losses in America. Where does this leave it's playoff hopes?

NOTRE DAME RETAKES THE LEAD LATE IN THE 4TH ☘️

pic.twitter.com/sjhmCfJSCR

— College Football Report (@CFBRep) September 1, 2024

Notre Dame's resume is conflicting and complicated

Due to the Northern Illinois slip-up, the best Notre Dame can now finish is 11-1, with the 1 being an extreme low-end outlier. How will this record stack up in the 12-team CFP format? What about a 10-2 Irish team? Nobody knows yet, all we can do is look at recent history and make educated guesses.

Last season, of the top 12 ranked teams after conference championship week, 3 were undefeated. Another 4 teams featured 1 loss and the teams ranked 8-12 all had 2 losses.

The highest-ranked 3-loss team, LSU was ranked 13th and the Irish sat at 16th with their 3-loss record. In no way am I suggesting things will shake out similarly this year, but I do think it's interesting to take a look at how teams stacked up and where Notre Dame fell within the bunch to gain a frame of reference of what may be coming.

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