Irish Breakdown

Notre Dame Football's Perfect Path in the College Football Playoff: A Dream Draw

The Irish don't necessarily have to earn a first round home game

Nick Shepkowski

Notre Dame linebacker Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa (27) lines up during a NCAA college football game against Florida State at Notre Dame Stadium on Saturday, Nov. 9, 2024, in South Bend.
Notre Dame linebacker Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa (27) lines up during a NCAA college football game against Florida State at Notre Dame Stadium on Saturday, Nov. 9, 2024, in South Bend. / MICHAEL CLUBB/SOUTH BEND TRIBUNE / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
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Notre Dame football sits at 8-1 with three games to play in the 2024 season. The final of those to be played at Notre Dame Stadium happens this Saturday afternoon when the Irish take on Virginia on senior day.

Notre Dame clearly has its eyes set on the College Football Playoff and the hope among Fighting Irish faithful is that the team wins out and earns a top-eight seed which would cement a home playoff game in round one.

Is that the best case scenario for Notre Dame, though?

Notre Dame's Current Standing in College Football Playoff Rankings

The latest College Football Playoff rankings were announced on Tuesday and Notre Dame moved up two spots to No. 8.

Because of the formatting of the playoff, the four highest ranked conference champions receive the first four seeds. As a result, Notre Dame would be the nine-seed if the playoff were constructed off current rankings.

As it shakes out for Notre Dame, its playoff outlook under that scenario would look like the following:

First Round: at No. 8 Tennessee

Second Round: vs. No. 1 Oregon

Semi-Final: One of No. 4 Miami, No. 5 Ohio State, or No. 12 Boise State

National Championship: One of No. 2 Texas, No. 3 BYU, No. 6 Penn State, No. 7 Indiana, No. 10 Alabama, or No. 11 Ole Miss.

Notre Dame Football: What If Irish Move up Slightly, Earn Home Game?

Notre Dame celebrates a sack against Florida Stat
Notre Dame defensive lineman Rylie Mills (99) and defensive lineman Donovan Hinish (41) celebrate getting a stop during a NCAA college football game against Florida State at Notre Dame Stadium on Saturday, Nov. 9, 2024, in South Bend. / MICHAEL CLUBB/SOUTH BEND TRIBUNE / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Say Notre Dame takes care of business in its final three games and gets a little help along the way to earn a home game.

That could come by home favorites Georgia and Ohio State beating Tennessee and Indiana respectively in the coming weeks, and Notre Dame could very possibly be looking at being in the seven or eight seed.

That seeding would guarantee a home game, but would it be the best for Notre Dame's chances of making a deep run, potentially towards a national championship game appearance?

Sure the Irish might get Indiana, Tennessee or another beatable team at Notre Dame Stadium, but the difficulty in the second round is significantly higher if the Irish remain in the 8 vs. 9 or 7 vs. 10 first round game.

Notre Dame Football: Brad Crawford's Latest Projection Would be Great for Irish

We went through a good amount of College Football Playoff projections and bowl projections on Wednesday and what we found was nearly split on if Notre Dame earned a home playoff game.

Well, there was one guy that had the Irish playing Iowa State in the Pop-Tarts Bowl but we'll ignore that for now.

Alas, Brad Crawford of 247Sports dropped his latest College Football Playoff projection this week and if you're Notre Dame it couldn't have set up more perfectly.

But here's the catch, Crawford doesn't have Notre Dame playing a home game in the first round. Check out his projection below.

If you're a Notre Dame fan you sign up for what Crawford calls for seven days a week and twice on Sunday.

A first round game against BYU in Provo is one where Notre Dame would likely be favored in. Yes, it involves a trip to Utah and the last time the Irish played their in 2004, they opened the season with a stunning upset loss.

Of potential first round opponents though, you couldn't ask for a better matchup if you're Notre Dame. BYU is unbeaten and overall has a very good defense but its weakness on that side is where Notre Dame is best offensively as the Cougars rank 81st nationally in yards allowed per rush.

Round two would see a date with Miami most likely in the Peach or Fiesta Bowls. Miami has a hard enough time getting through the ACC without help this year and you couldn't handpick a better possible second round opponent for this Notre Dame team.

That brings us to the national semi-final where one of Texas, Indiana, or Georgia would be lurking. Notre Dame wouldn't be a favorite against Texas or Georgia, but either of these matchups seem a lot more favorable for the Irish than they would have back in August.

Georgia has played arguably the toughest schedule in the country and that has to be mentioned. The Bulldogs rank just 50th nationally in points per game, 86th in yards per rush, and 43rd in yards per pass. The 2021 and 2022 teams that steamrolled the nation these Dawgs clearly are not, regardless of opponent.

As for Texas, the Longhorns have one of the nation's very best defenses. The only team it has played that is currently ranked though is Georgia and the Bulldogs put a 30-15 whooping' on them in Austin back in October. How much do we really know about Texas to date? That's very much up to debate.

Crawford's Projection Highlights Notre Dame's Biggest Wish for CFP

Notre Dame Stadium as the snow falls in a game between the Irish and Boston College in 2022
Nov 19, 2022; South Bend, Indiana, USA; Heavy snow falls in the third quarter of the game between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and the Boston College Eagles at Notre Dame Stadium. / Matt Cashore-Imagn Images

If you take anything from Crawford's projection its that perhaps the Notre Dame faithful are worried a hair too much about whether or not the Irish get a home game assuming they win out.

Instead, the bigger hope for Notre Dame should be to get into that No. 5 vs. No. 12 or No. 6 vs. No. 11 game, regardless of if it is played in South Bend or not.

Now imagine if Notre Dame can move up a couple of spots, get that five or six seed, and then get a similar draw in terms of opponents on its side of the bracket. Then that's just icing on the cake for the Fighting Irish.

More from Notre Dame on Sports Illustrated

Why Notre Dame is a National Championship Contender in 2024

Notre Dame's Path to Hosting College Football Playoff Game Becomes More Clear

Latest National Notre Dame College Football Playoff and Bowl Projections

Notre Dame Updates Depth Chart Following Significant Injury for Virginia Game

Notre Dame Reemerges in Joel Klatt's Top 10 College Football Rankings

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Nick Shepkowski
NICK SHEPKOWSKI

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