College Football Playoff Projections After Wild Rivalry Week Upsets

Notre Dame among teams that locked up College Football Playoff berths during heated Rivalry Week

Nov 30, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish running back Jadarian Price (24) scores on a 36-yard touchdown run against the Southern California Trojans in the second half at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. / Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

And just like that the college football regular season has come to an end as rivalry week lived up to its name, seeing upsets and drama nationally.

For Notre Dame, a 49-35 victory over rival USC moved the Irish to an 11-1 finish this regular season and because of other happenings, almost certainly a No. 5 or No. 6 seed in the College Football Playoff.

Notre Dame is of course off next week as it does not play in a conference championship game. It was however helped out in terms of seeding as Michigan upset No. 2 Ohio State in Columbus and No. 6 Miami fell to unranked Syracuse.

What does it all mean for the College Football Playoff?

Here's a look at our latest projection following a memorable rivalry weekend that like the 2024 season, significantly out-did expectations.

College Football Playoff Projection: Top Four Seeds

Just a friendly reminder before we get going - this is based on what I think will happen combined with what already has this college football season.

Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel dances to celebrate a touchdown as the No. 1 Oregon Ducks host the Washington Huskies Saturday, Nov. 30, 2024 at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Ore. / Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Changes are made at the top this week as Ohio State's loss to Michigan moves them out of possibly securing a top four seed. I admit I was wrong about Ohio State as Oregon is now the clear favorite to find the top spot as it takes on Penn State in the Big Ten championship.

Elsewhere I have Georgia beating Texas for a second time in the SEC Championship to secure a bye while I've got Boise State and then Arizona State beating Iowa State to secure the Big 12. Clemson's loss to South Carolina on Saturday keeps my projected ACC champion from a first round bye.

1. Oregon
2. Georgia
3. Boise State
4. Arizona State

College Football Playoff Projections: 5-8

Nov 30, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish head coach Marcus Freeman celebrates with players at the end of the game against the Southern California Trojans at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. / Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

How high can Notre Dame climb and how far does Ohio State fall?

Notre Dame completed what seemed like an impossible task in being forgiven for that Sept. 7 loss to Northern Illinois. As a result, the 11-1 Fighting Irish move all the way up to No. 5 assuming both Georgia and Oregon win their conference championship games.

Also be on the lookout for the final home team in the First Round to come down to Tennessee, Ohio State, and Indiana. I think this is where the committee puts the Volunteers a spot above Indiana because of having a bigger win, despite the fact they also have one more loss. I'd also expect them to move past Ohio State after the brutal loss to Michigan to close the regular season.

5. Notre Dame
6. Texas
7. Penn State
8. Tennessee

College Football Playoff Projections: 9-12

Ohio State head coach Ryan Day calls a timeout against Michigan during the second half at Ohio Stadium in Columbus, Ohio on Saturday, Nov. 30, 2024. / Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

How far does Ohio State slide after falling to Michigan yet again? I would expect to see them fall all the way out of the top eight which means the Buckeyes will be going on the road to start the College Football Playoff.

Will they have to run the table to save Ryan Day's job?

Indiana, Alabama, and Clemson round out the field of 12.

9. Ohio State
10. Indiana
11. Alabama
12. Clemson

First Team Out

Nov 23, 2024; Columbia, South Carolina, USA; South Carolina Gamecocks quarterback Robby Ashford (1) runs the ball for a touchdown against the Wofford Terriers in the second half at Williams-Brice Stadium. / Jeff Blake-Imagn Images

Looking back to LSU's dramatic win over South Carolina back in September, who would have thought that game would have had such an impact on the College Football Playoff? In part because of a few questionable calls, South Carolina dropped that contest to fall to 2-1 early in the year. The Gamecocks would only lose twice more the rest of the way and after beating Clemson in Week 14 they're knocking on the door but remain just on the outside looking in.

College Football Playoff Projections - Bracket

First Round Byes:

1. Oregon
2. Georgia
3. Boise State
4. Arizona State

First Round Games:

5. Notre Dame vs. 12. Clemson
6. Texas vs. 11. Alabama
7. Penn State vs. 10. Indiana
8. Tennessee vs. 9. Ohio State

Second Round Games:

1. Oregon vs. 8. Tennessee
4. Arizona State vs. 5. Notre Dame
3. Boise State vs. 6. Texas
2. Georgia vs. 7. Penn State

Semi-Final Games

1. Oregon vs. 5. Notre Dame
2. Georgia vs. 6. Texas

National Championship

1. Oregon over 2. Georgia

Nick Shepkowski's Quick Thought:

That's my best guess as how this will end up but if we've seen anything this season its that pretty much nothing has been predictible. That said, getting the five would be incredibly advantageous for Notre Dame.

Getting Clemson in South Bend before potentially taking on Arizona State would be incredibly favorable in terms of getting to the national semi-finals. Even against Oregon, Notre Dame wouldn't be favored but would certainly be in position to compete.

Buckle up, Irish fans. This has the makings of a December (and January) to remember.

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