Notre Dame Breakout Players - 2023 Defense Edition

A look at my prediction for three breakout players for the Notre Dame defense for the 2023 season

One of my favorite topics to discuss every season are the breakout players for Notre Dame. It happens every year, some player either goes from a quality starter to a star, a backup to a productive starter, or from a lightly used player into a key rotation spot.

Breakouts are important for a football team to either maintain past success, or in Notre Dame's case to improve. You never fully know who they will be, but you know they are important to a team's success, and for Notre Dame there are several players poised for breakouts. 

For me a breakout can be one of three things.

1) A good and productive starter turns into a nationally recognized impact player

2) A player with potential that shows flashes becomes a consistently impactful and/or productive player

3) A depth player becomes a starter and has a big jump in production and play

With this in mind, there are several players that are poised to be potential breakout players for the Notre Dame defense. I discuss my top three breakout predictions in the podcast above, but there is a look at all the top contenders for a breakout that I see this season, going position by position.

DE Jordan Botelho - Now a senior, Botelho enters his first opportunity to be a full-time player. Arguably the biggest enigma on the roster, Botelho ended the 2022 season on a strong note, and now the Irish are hoping he can carry that into the 2023 campaign. All 4.5 of his sacks from last season came in the final six games, which included a 10 quarterback pressure performance in the bowl game. There's never been any disputing Botelho's talent, but his focus has been a question, and that was also true at times in 2023. If he's locked in and if he can be a more consistent player he could put up some big time pressure numbers for Notre Dame this fall and help ease the loss of Isaiah Foskey.

DE Javontae Jean-Baptiste - The Ohio State transfer was a key reserve the last three seasons, but he gets a chance to earn a more prominent role with the Fighting Irish. Jean-Baptiste has shown flashes of being a productive pass rusher the last two seasons, and he's coming off a season in which he racked up 3.5 sacks as a rotation player. Jean-Baptiste also improved as a run defender last season, and that will be key to him becoming a full-time player and not a niche rotation edge player. If Jean-Baptiste can carry over what he showed in the spring into the fall I expect him to provide the Irish with a much-needed pass rushing boost at the big end position.

Sophomore D-Ends - With Botelho now a starter and Justin Ademilola having graduated, the sophomore class will be tasked with stepping into the key depth roles. Both Junior Tuihalamaka and Josh Burnham have loads of talent, and with good development they should become factors in the Irish rotation. Tuihalamaka is a thick, powerful player that should thrive in the run game and provide quality edge rush skills. Burnham is one of the best pound-for-pound athletes on the entire roster. If position coach Al Washington is willing to put in the work to develop the converted linebacker there is no doubt that Burnham can give the defense the off-the-bench pass rushing production that Botelho gave the defense, if not more.

DT Rylie Mills - Mills has moved inside and out the last two years, and now he's moving back inside. The Illinois native has been a flashing player at Notre Dame, showing moments of outstanding play, but he hasn't been as consistent, or as productive as he's capable of being. Now a senior, Mills is being tasked with emerging as one of the defense's top players. 

Mills enters his senior season with more career sacks (7) and comparable tackle for loss numbers (11.0) that Sheldon Day (16.5 TFL, 3.5 sacks) and Jerry Tillery (14.5 TFL, 5.5 sacks) had going into their senior seasons, and both of those former Irish stars played a lot more snaps than Mills did heading into his senior season. Tillery had 9 TFL and 4.5 sacks as a junior while playing 703 snaps, and Day had 7.5 TFL and one sacks as a junior while playing 624 snaps. Mills had 6.0 TFL and 3.5 sacks on just 415 snaps. 

To get a handle on what kind of production that would be on similar snaps, consider that if Mills played the same number of snaps as Tillery and produced at the same level he would have racked up 10 TFL and 6 sacks, and his numbers on the same snaps as Day would have been 9 TFL and 5 sacks. If Mills can handle a bigger work load and make a similar improvement jump as a senior that Day (15.5 TFL, 4 sacks) and Tillery (10.5 TFL, 8 sacks) made he will without a double become the breakout player Notre Dame needs him to be. 

DT Jason Onye - I expect Mills and Howard Cross to be quality starters for Notre Dame, but the defense will need depth, and depth that can make plays. I could easily put Gabriel Rubio in this breakout category, but he already earned a key rotation role a season ago. Onye, on the other hand, played very little last season. Barring injury I fully expect that to change this season. Onye had a strong spring, and if he carries that into the fall he'll become a very important piece to the Notre Dame defensive line.

LB JD Bertrand - The Georgia native gets a lot of heat from Notre Dame fans, but he's been a quality player the last two seasons. Now a third-year starter I expect him to be a much better, and more productive player. This is especially true now that he enters his second season in Al Golden's defense. Bertrand started to show what I'm talking about in the second half of the 2022 season, with Bertrand racking up 6.5 tackles for loss in his last six games. In fact, if you take his second half numbers and project them over an entire season you're looking at a full season with 100 tackles, 14 tackles for loss, 3 sacks and 7 pass break ups. I wouldn't be at all shocked to see him put up numbers like that in 2023.

S Xavier Watts - Notre Dame needs safeties to step up this season and I fully expect Watts to do just that. He showed potential late in the season when he finally earned a more prominent role in the rotation. In the final four games of the season, Watts showed the ability to impact the run game and make plays on the ball while earning the most playing time of his career. Project his final four game numbers over an entire season and you're looking at 72 tackles, 7 tackles for loss, 3 sacks and 7 pass break ups. He's finally going into a season with no question about what position he'll play, and I predict the result will be a breakout senior campaign.

CB Cam Hart - Hart is well known in Notre Dame circles, but he has a chance to become more of a national name with a strong 2023 campaign. Hart was very strong in coverage for much of the 2022 season, well, at least he was after the first four games. He needs to make more plays on the ball and stay healthy, and if he does Hart will battle Benjamin Morrison for the honor of being the team's best cornerback.

CB Jaden Mickey - Notre Dame wants to go with more of a rotation at cornerback in order to keep their starters fresh. Mickey had a strong spring, and I expect him to get a lot more snaps this season, and you'll see much better results.

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