Notre Dame Championship Climb: By The Numbers
Sports and numbers go hand in hand, especially in today’s analytics/data driven world of big-time sports. Virtually every team in every sport has a team of analysts who crunch numbers that they lean on or push against.
We’re not going to delve into analytical analysis in this exercise, but we are going to look at some specific statistics to see just how close Notre Dame football could be to being on a championship level. There are five statistical markers that tend to be predictive of a championship level college football team.
They are Rush Offense, Pass Efficiency Offense, Run Defense, Total Defense, and Turnover Margin.
Teams that rank the highest in these categories tend to be the ones that advance to the College Football Playoff and ultimately win national championships. We’re going to look at where Notre Dame ranked in those five categories in Marcus Freeman’s first season and compare them to the teams that made the College Football Playoff (Georgia, TCU, Michigan, and Ohio State) last season as well as some of the national leaders in those categories.
There were a few other statistical problem areas for the Fighting Irish last season that we’ll take a look at and compare to those teams as well. First, the “Big Five” stat categories.
Rushing Offense
(National ranking, CFP Team, Yards per game)
No. 5 Michigan (238.9 YPG)
No. 19 Georgia (205.3)
No. 31 TCU (193.3)
No. 32 Ohio State (192.4)
Notre Dame was a respectable 35th in the nation in rushing offense in Freeman’s first season at 189.1 yards per game. Michigan finished behind the three service academies and Ole Miss (256.6) in this category. The Irish averaged just 4.6 yards per carry, which is solid, but not great in the college game. It was still an improvement from the 4.1 per carry average in Jeff Quinn’s last season as offensive line coach in 2021.
With Audric Estime and Logan Diggs combining for 1,741 yards, the Irish were just behind the other three CFP teams with their rushing attack last season. Sam Hartman’s addition at quarterback means teams will have to respect a vertical passing attack that has long been absent for the Irish. It should also help push that yards per carry up over 5.0 this season as well.
Pass Efficiency Offense
No. 2 Ohio State (177.16)
No. 6 Georgia (161.99)
No. 15 TCU (157.42)
No. 23 Michigan (152.37)
This is probably the hardest statistic to understand because it’s a math formula (and who likes math). The easiest way to explain it without getting into a long diagram and long division is pass efficiency offense combines pass attempts, completions, passing yards, touchdown passes, and interceptions to spit out a number that rates how good a team’s passing game is.
Tennessee led the nation at 181.39 last season, while Notre Dame came in at No. 32 at 147.23. Michigan was the lowest ranked of the CFP teams at No. 23, with Ohio State and Georgia both in the top 10.
Speaking of top 10, Wake Forest, where Hartman played last year, was No. 10 at 160.36 in 2022. Hartman (with his 12 interceptions and all) was No. 15 in the individual passer rating with a mark of 159.4. That was one spot better than TCU’s Max Duggan (159.2) and seven spots ahead of Michigan’s JJ McCarthy (154.9).
Just like Hartman’s presence should help Notre Dame’s running game this season, the Irish rushing attack should help Hartman in this department (Wake Forest was No. 93 in rushing offense last season).
Rushing Defense
No. 1 Georgia (77.1 YPG)
No. 7 Michigan (97.9)
No. 25 OSU (121.1)
No. 79 TCU (158.9)
Two CFP teams were elite in this department, one was well above average and the other was well below average. TCU is the obvious outlier here, but its offense made up the difference. Unsurprisingly, Georgia and its 5-star/NFL draft pick laden defense led the nation by allowing just 77.1 yards per game.
Maybe surprisingly, Notre Dame was not that far off the pace from No. 25 Ohio State with a 131.3 yards per game average that ranked No. 37 nationally. The Irish were not a bad rush defense in Al Golden’s first season as defensive coordinator, they were just an inconsistent run defense that gave up key runs in a handful of spots (see Marshall running back Khalan Laborn’s 42-yard, 4th quarter run as exhibit A).
One of Notre Dame’s biggest questions entering the season will be how they fare against the run after key defensive line losses of Jayson and Justin Ademilola and Isaiah Foskey, but the linebacker unit, led by leading tackler JD Bertrand, returns intact and must step up in 2023 for the Irish to move to the ranks of the elite against the run.
Total Defense
No. 6 Michigan (292.1 YPG)
No. 10 Georgia (296.8)
No. 14 Ohio State (321.5)
No. 95 TCU (408.2)
What if I told you that 37.2 yards per game separated the No. 6 and No. 22 teams in the nation in this department? And what if I told you that just 32.5 yards per game separated the two-time defending national champions and the No. 22 team in the nation in this department?
Sound enticing?
Well, what if I told you the No. 22 team in the nation was Notre Dame, which allowed a total of 329.3 yards per game? Pretty solid company to keep. For as much grief as Notre Dame’s defense got last year, the Irish were just off the pace from being elite in this category and were miles ahead of the (again) outlier TCU.
Turnover Margin
No. 20 Ohio State (18 gained, 10 lost)
No. 21 Michigan (18 gained, 10 lost)
No. 34 TCU (22 gained, 16 lost)
No. 66 Georgia (19 gained, 18 lost)
It took Notre Dame until its fifth game of the season against BYU to finally force its first turnover last season. They didn’t have a turnover in their season opening loss to Ohio State, but the three combined interceptions from Tyler Buchner and Drew Pyne were daggers in the loss the following week to Marshall and they finished minus-2 in turnovers thanks to a pair of fumbles in the loss to Stanford.
When all was said and done, Notre Dame finished No. 85 in turnover margin with 15 gained and 18 turnovers lost. It is the least acceptable of any of the five key statistics, but it at least becomes more palatable when considering they forced 18 turnovers in the final nine games of the season, witch freshman corner back Benjamin Morrison snatching a third of the team’s season total with his six interceptions.
Interestingly, Southern Cal led the nation in turnover margin at 1.57, with 29 turnovers gained and just seven lost, while national champion Georgia ranked just No. 66. Also of note, Duke, led by former Irish defensive coordinator Mike Elko, ranked No. 2 with 26 gained and 10 lost. Both teams had big turnaround seasons under first year head coaches.
While forcing turnovers can be taught, they also tend to be somewhat arbitrary in nature and it will be interesting to see if those two teams can come close to duplicating their successes this season.
Those are the “Big Five” stats categories, but there are a few other areas where Notre Dame must improve this season as well.
Red Zone Defense
No. 2 Georgia (.676, 23 scores allowed in 34 attempts, 13 TD allowed)
No. 53 Michigan (.824, 15 TD allowed in 34 attempts)
No. 78 TCU (.845, 58 attempts, 37 TD allowed including 26 rushing TD)
No. 126 Ohio State (.931, 29 attempts, 27 scores allowed, 18 TD allowed)
Notre Dame ranked No. 130 out of 131 (.941) FBS teams in this category. Of the 34 trips Irish opponents made into the red zone Notre Dame surrendered 32 total scores, with 27 of them touchdowns.
Those numbers are staggering but look at where CFP participant Ohio State ranked – No. 126. Just four spots better than the Irish. In fact, Georgia was elite, but was also the only one of the four CFP teams that was even above average.
Incidentally, Oregon State was the No. 1 red zone defensive team in the nation in 2022 but was only one win better than No. 130 Notre Dame. San Diego State, Middle Tennessee, UCF, San Jose State, Texas A&M, Penn State, Texas Tech, and Illinois were all in the top 10, with Louisville, Air Force and Washington State among the top 15 teams.
Bottom line, improvement in this area is a must, but this statistic is not indicative of overall team success. Even below average red zone defensive teams can make the CFP and even high performing teams in this area end up being average overall teams.
Third Down Percentage Defense
No. 2 Georgia (.266)
No. 8 Ohio State (.299)
No. 26 Michigan (.338
No. 52 TCU (.365)
No surprise, Georgia was elite in this category. The Bulldogs were elite in virtually every defensive category last season. Also not much of a surprise that Ohio State was elite there too.
But guess who had the No. 1 third down defense in the nation in 2022? None other than David to Notre Dame’s Goliath – Marshall, which finished with a 9-4 record after allowing Notre Dame to convert just 4 of 13 third downs (the Irish defense had the exact same number against the Thundering Herd offense).
Notre Dame finished No. 49 (.363), while teams like Iowa State, Minnesota and Illinois were in the top 10. Rutgers (4-8) finished No. 28 while SEC West champ LSU (10-4) was No. 79.
Bottom line – get better, but it’s not mandatory to be a top team.
Scoring Defense
No. 5 Georgia (14.2 PPG)
No. 7 Michigan (16.0)
No. 25 Ohio State (21.0)
No. 90 (29.0, tied with Kent State)
Scoring defense is probably one of the first stats that comes to mind if you polled most fans on which defensive statistic determines ultimate success. After all, the more points a team scores and the fewer points it allows the greater chance it has to win.
Georgia (shocker) again performed at an elite level, which Michigan not far behind. Ohio State ranked No. 25 allowing 21.0 PPG, but Notre Dame was only two points worse and finished with a ranking of No. 39.
Illinois (12.5 PPG) and Iowa (13.3) finished No. 1 and 2 in the nation, respectively, but each was just 8-5 last season, while Southern Cal was No. 94 (29.2) and finished 11-3 after a Cotton Bowl loss to Tulane.
Scoring Offense
No. 2 OSU (44.2 PPG)
No. 5 Georgia (41.1)
No. 6 Michigan (40.4)
No. 9 TCU (38.8)
Raise your hand if you grew up reciting the “defense wins championships” mantra. You’re not alone. But the game has changed with much more wide open college football offenses. Each of the College Football Playoff participants last season was elite. That includes defensively challenged TCU. Additionally, USC was No. 3 USC (41.4) and No. 4 Alabama No. (41.1). The top six scoring teams in the nation were all Power Five teams (Tennessee No. 1 at 46.1 PPG) and they all averaged more than 40 a game.
Notre Dame came in at No. 42 in scoring offense scoring 31.8 points per game after averaging 35.2 points the previous season. There’s been a lot of talk about whether Hartman’s addition can push the Irish closer to that 40 point mark. His slow mesh Wake Forest offense was No. 16 last year (36.1).
The 2019 team that finished 11-2 with a Camping World Bowl win is the highest scoring team Notre Dame has had six seasons at 36.8 PPG. The highest scoring Fighting Irish team in the last 55 years is the 1968 squad that averaged 37.6 points.
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