Notre Dame Football: ESPN Computer Model Boosts Fighting Irish's Playoff Hopes

ESPN FPI was mega-impressed with Notre Dame in blowout win of Purdue

Nick Shepkowski | Sep 15, 2024

Notre Dame Fighting Irish quarterback Riley Leonard (13) celebrates with Notre Dame Fighting Irish offensive lineman Aamil Wagner (59) after scoring a touchdown Saturday, Sept. 14, 2024, during the NCAA football game against the Purdue Boilermakers at Ross-Ade Stadium in West Lafayette, Ind. Notre Dame Fighting Irish won 66-7. / Alex Martin/Journal and Courier / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

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Notre Dame Fighting Irish

You can only play what is on your schedule and that is something Notre Dame football is going to have to continue to realize as the 2024 college football season marches on.

Saturday saw Notre Dame hand Purdue the most lopsided loss in Boilermakers football history and despite it coming against a team that appears will struggle to find wins in 2024, at least one outlet was left mighty impressed by the Fighting Irish.

ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) tries to provide a power rating with a formula that ranks teams based on metric-based performance, not an eye test or anything of the sort.

As a result of Saturday's blowout victory, Notre Dame saw a significant amount of increased love from the FPI.

Notre Dame vs. Purdue - FPI Prediction, A Look Back

Despite Notre Dame losing to Northern Illinois a week ago, the FPI didn't drop the Irish overly far. FPI still rated Notre Dame as the tenth best team in the nation while the polls voted by humans had the Irish much closer to 20th.

It also dropped Notre Dame's chances of victory at Purdue a decent amount, giving the Irish a 73.7% chance of victory after it being 81.4% the week previous. It dropped but still remained fairly high on Notre Dame against the Boilermakers while betters nationwide were so in on Purdue that the point spread went all the way from 16 or 17 points the week before to just seven at kickoff.

Turns out the computer's confidence in Notre Dame was more accurate than the general public's after a 66-7 dismantling of the Boilermakers.

ESPN FPI Predicts Remaining Notre Dame Season

It was just one game but the dominance Notre Dame showed against Purdue threw some numbers for a significant change in favor of the Irish.

Here are Notre Dame's chances at winning each of the remaining nine games according to ESPN FPI along with what those chances were a week ago, pre-Purdue. As you'll see, Notre Dame's chances of bouncing back and still making the College Football Playoff are very much alive.

Notre Dame vs. Miami University: 96.9 (+3.8)
Notre Dame vs. Louisville: 70.6% (+14.9)
Notre Dame vs. Stanford: 95.8% (+4.3)
Notre Dame vs. Georgia Tech: 81.8% (+10.5)
Notre Dame vs. Navy: 96.8% (+3.0)
Notre Dame vs. Florida State: 90.3% (+11.0)
Notre Dame vs. Virginia: 94.8% (+5.6)
Notre Dame vs. Army: 92.8% (+5.4)
Notre Dame at USC: 50.5% (+14.3)

Notre Dame Season Projections from ESPN FPI:

To Win-Out This Regular Season: 22.9% (up 14.9% from Sept. 8)

Make College Football Playoff: 38.2% (up 15%)*

Make National Championship Game: 5.5% (up 3.5%)

Win National Championship: 2.3% (up 1.6%)

*-Notre Dame's 38.2% chance to make the College Football Playoff are the 11th best of any team nationally according to ESPN FPI.

Nick Shepkowski's Quick Thoughts:

In this world of an expanded College Football Playoff, power ratings mean more than ever before in terms of long term success. One loss, like to Northern Illinois for example, doesn't automatically end Notre Dame's playoff hopes like it would have at any point during the four-team playoff era.

It's no surprise that a dominating win shifts the numbers more in Notre Dame's favor a week after a surprising loss where the Irish no-showed against Northern Illinois. The two most interesting things in all these numbers are that through the roller coaster first three weeks, Notre Dame's game with USC is seen as essentially a coinflip and that Notre Dame's chances of winning a national championship are actually higher this week according to FPI than they were right after the Irish took down Texas A&M.

As we've said many times this week, Notre Dame's hopes for the College Football Playoff certainly aren't over by any means. However, these numbers continue to reinforce just how important the "one game at a time" and "week by week" cliches you'll hear, but that are true about this Notre Dame football team as we get deeper into the fall.